Ping An Securities·2025-03-27 09:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Recommended (Maintain)" with a current price of 31.25 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report indicates that the lithium price has returned to historical lows, and the company is expected to wait for performance to stabilize and recover. The significant drop in lithium prices in 2024 has led to substantial pressure on the company's performance, but a potential recovery in 2025 is anticipated as production increases and prices stabilize [6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Tianqi Lithium achieved a revenue of 13.063 billion CNY, a year-over-year decline of 67.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -7.905 billion CNY, down 208.32% year-over-year. The company did not declare cash dividends or stock bonuses for the year [5]. - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 2.999 billion CNY, a decrease of 57.79% year-over-year, with a net profit of -2.203 billion CNY, down 174.98% year-over-year [5]. Lithium Mining and Processing - The company's lithium mining and processing revenue in 2024 was 4.978 billion CNY, a decline of 81.70%, accounting for 38.11% of total revenue. The production and sales volumes of lithium concentrate were 1.4105 million tons and 739,100 tons, respectively, down 7.35% and 12.50% year-over-year. The average selling price was approximately 6,735 CNY/ton, a decrease of 79% [6]. - The gross margin for this segment was 63.71%, down 26.73 percentage points year-over-year [6]. Lithium Compounds - Revenue from lithium compounds and derivatives in 2024 was 8.075 billion CNY, a decrease of 39.24%, with a gross margin of 35.21%, down 38.64 percentage points year-over-year. The average selling price was about 78,543 CNY/ton, down 66.5% [7]. - The production and sales volumes of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide reached 70,700 tons and 102,800 tons, respectively, representing increases of 39.44% and 81.46% year-over-year [7]. Future Outlook - The report projects that from 2025 to 2027, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 1.391 billion CNY, 1.918 billion CNY, and 2.148 billion CNY, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 36.9, 26.7, and 23.9 [8][10]. - The construction of the chemical-grade lithium plant at the Greenbush mine is expected to be completed in 2025, which will increase the total production capacity to 2.14 million tons/year, potentially leading to improved performance [6].