软商品日报-2025-03-27

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: White star, indicating a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting temporary observation [1][9] - Pulp: White star, suggesting temporary observation [1][9] - Sugar: White star, suggesting temporary observation [1][9] - Apple: Red star, representing a bullish trend with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the market [1][9] - Timber: White star, suggesting temporary observation [1][9] - 20 - rubber: One red star, indicating a bullish trend but limited operability on the market [1][9] - Natural rubber: White star, suggesting temporary observation [1][9] - Butadiene rubber: White star, suggesting temporary observation [1][9] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, production, consumption, and inventory data [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined, and the mainstream basis of domestic cotton remained stable. Cotton yarn demand was weak, and future textile exports were not optimistic due to tariffs. US cotton's weekly signing data weakened, and there were expectations of a significant reduction in planting area. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Internationally, the trading focus of US sugar shifted to Brazil's sugar supply. The high sugar - alcohol ratio was bearish for US sugar, and Brazil's new - season production was uncertain. Domestically, the market's trading focus shifted to consumption and imports. With good domestic sugar sales and reduced imports, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded, but its upside was limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices corrected, while spot prices were stable. Traders were stocking up for the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and some areas had tight supplies. Cold - storage inventory was low, and demand was in the peak season. The futures market was expected to continue to rebound, and a bullish strategy was recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Futures prices rose, and market sentiment improved slightly. Global natural rubber supply was entering the growth period, and domestic tire demand declined. Inventories increased, and the external environment was unfavorable. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and BR, short - sell NR, and hold cross - variety arbitrage positions [6] Pulp - Futures prices declined slightly, and port inventories decreased. There were news of overseas pulp mill production cuts, but downstream demand was average. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices were stable. Imported timber prices fell due to weak demand. New Zealand's timber shipments were in the peak season, and inventory pressure was high. Futures prices were expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]