行业景气度全景观察：“四月决断”临近，把脉基本面变化

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a cautious outlook with a focus on structural opportunities in sectors benefiting from AI and policy support. Core Insights - The report highlights that the A-share market is approaching a critical decision point in April, with increased focus on fundamental changes in the economy. It predicts continued pressure on corporate earnings in 2024, with a potential stabilization in profitability for certain sectors in 2025. [3][11] - The overall earnings growth for A-shares is projected to be -3% for 2024, with non-financial sectors experiencing a more significant decline of -24%. The report identifies agriculture, commerce, non-bank financials, and electronics as sectors with positive earnings growth. [11][23] - The AI industry chain is noted for its strong growth prospects, with demand for AI infrastructure and applications driving profitability in related sectors. [3][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring structural opportunities in sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), machinery, defense, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from policy support and improved fundamentals. [3][11] Summary by Sections Total Trends - The report forecasts that the profitability of listed companies will remain under pressure in 2024, with a potential GDP growth of 5.1% in Q1 2025. The overall earnings growth for A-shares is expected to be -3%, with non-financial sectors at -24%. [3][11] - Key sectors such as agriculture, commerce, non-bank financials, and electronics are projected to have earnings growth rates ranging from 20% to 540%. [11][23] Mid-level Observations - The AI industry chain is highlighted as having a favorable outlook, with demand for AI-related products and services driving growth. The report also notes improvements in the basic fundamentals of the non-ferrous metals sector and a recovery in the real estate chain. [3][11] - The report indicates that the coal and petrochemical sectors are showing signs of recovery, while the real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2025. [3][11] Micro-level Consumption - The report suggests that policy measures are expected to stimulate consumer demand, leading to a potential recovery in industry sentiment. The automotive sector is anticipated to benefit from supportive policies, particularly for new energy vehicles. [3][11] - The food and beverage sector is expected to see improved performance, particularly in the liquor segment, while the pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth due to the internationalization of domestic innovative drugs. [3][11] Market Outlook - The report advises investors to focus on structural opportunities as the market approaches the "April decision." It suggests that while the market may experience short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive due to policy support and industry transformations. [3][11]