冠通研究：基本面中性偏弱，成材震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of finished steel are moderately weak, and the prices are expected to fluctuate. The demand has not peaked yet, and the resumption of blast furnace production continues to support the demand for furnace materials. There is still cost support, and the expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain is not strong for the time being. Recently, the news of crude steel production cuts on the supply side has been fermenting, and during the position transfer period, short - sellers are gradually taking profits. [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, the black - series commodities opened higher and then mainly fluctuated. Furnace materials were stronger than finished steel, and the closing price center of finished steel dropped slightly. The fundamentals of finished steel are moderately weak, especially the demand for rebar shows signs of fatigue and inventory reduction is slow. Hot - rolled coil continues to resume production, demand keeps rising at a high level, and the inventory reduction situation is good. [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The main rebar contract RB2505 opened at 3205 yuan/ton and closed at 3208 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton with a change of - 0.19%. The main hot - rolled coil contract opened at 3387 yuan/ton and closed at 3381 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton with a change of - 0.12%. In terms of positions, for the rebar RB2505 contract, the top 20 long positions were 876,699 lots, down 56,742 lots, and the top 20 short positions were 1,007,623 lots, down 79,748 lots. For the hot - rolled coil HC2505 contract, the top 20 long positions were 541,526 lots, down 21,355 lots, and the top 20 short positions were 594,480 lots, down 30,714 lots. [5] - Spot: Today, domestic steel prices declined slightly with stability. The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3370 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). The trading atmosphere in the steel market was generally poor today. [5] - Basis: The basis of the main rebar contract in Shanghai was 41 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), and the basis of hot - rolled coil was - 11 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton). Currently, the basis is at a medium level compared to the same period in previous years. [5] Fundamental Tracking - Rebar: From March 21st to March 27th, the weekly rebar production was 2274300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The apparent demand was 2453200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 12.78%. The social inventory was 6095800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 83800 tons, and the factory inventory was 2095300 tons, a decrease of 95100 tons. The total inventory was 8191100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178900 tons. The demand for rebar recovers slowly, and inventory reduction is less than expected. [6][8] - Hot - rolled Coil: From March 21st to March 27th, the weekly hot - rolled coil production was 3247500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The apparent demand was 3386900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 80400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.97%. The factory inventory was 851400 tons, a decrease of 7100 tons, and the social inventory was 3108200 tons, a decrease of 132300 tons. The total inventory was 3959600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 139400 tons. The production and demand of hot - rolled coil both increase, and the total inventory reduction situation is good. Currently, the absolute inventory level is at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, and subsequent attention should be paid to the marginal changes in export demand. [6][8]