原油：震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is to hold a small - position long - term trial in the near term [1] Core Viewpoints - Despite the downward pressure on crude oil prices due to OPEC+ production increase, trade wars, and economic slowdown, recent factors such as the U.S. plan to replenish oil reserves, geopolitical conflicts, and production cut plans from some countries suggest a small - position long - term trial [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - OPEC+ will implement a previously postponed production increase plan in April, adding about 13.8 barrels per day [1] - The Trump administration may intercept Iranian oil tankers, and the U.S. and Russia have different stances on the Black Sea navigation safety agreement [1] - The U.S. oil rig count decreased by 1 last week, and the U.S. crude oil production increased by 0.1 million barrels per day to 13.574 million barrels per day in the week ending March 14 [1] - The U.S. refinery utilization rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 87.0%, and the overall oil inventory continued to decline [1] - The Trump administration's tariff policies and the Fed's interest - rate stance have an impact on the market [1] - The U.S. energy minister plans to seek up to $20 billion to replenish the oil reserves [1] - IEA has raised the expected surplus of crude oil, but recent events suggest a small - position long - term trial [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2505 rose 0.24% to 540.7 yuan per ton, with a minimum of 540.7 yuan per ton and a maximum of 545.9 yuan per ton, and the open interest decreased by 1674 to 30336 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different adjustments to the global crude oil demand and supply forecasts [3] - U.S. EIA data on March 26 showed that the crude oil inventory and refined product inventories decreased in the week ending March 21, with the crude oil inventory decline exceeding expectations [3] Supply and Demand - OPEC's January and February 2025 crude oil production increased, mainly driven by Iran and Nigeria [4] - The U.S. crude oil production slightly rebounded in the week ending March 14 but was still lower than the record high [4] - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased, and the weekly demand for gasoline and diesel decreased [4][6]