贸易战风险升级，需求预期向下

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risk of the global trade war has suddenly escalated, and the demand outlook for industrial metals is bleak. The main trading logic in the copper market recently is the US tariff policy, but in the case of a lackluster peak season, the market may return to the fundamental trading logic. In the medium to long term, the copper market is still in a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and attention should be paid to the range of 80,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market fluctuated and declined. The US tariff policy led to the transfer of copper inventories to the US, intensifying regional supply - demand imbalances. The processing fees of smelters weakened, and it is expected that there will be a round of concentrated maintenance in April. The source of scrap copper has tightened, and the supply - side disturbances have increased, providing support for the market. The slowdown in the destocking of Shanghai copper social inventories has suppressed the copper price. The market's expectation of industrial demand is weak, and the destocking of refined copper inventories is blocked, but there is still potential demand in the peak season [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower, closing at 81,560 yuan/ton. The number of long orders of the top 20 was 149,774 lots, a decrease of 10,412 lots; the number of short orders was 153,412 lots, a decrease of 10,749 lots. In the spot market, the spot premium in East China was - 30 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 90 yuan/ton. On March 26, 2025, the LME official price was 9,908 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 24 US dollars/ton [3] Supply - side - As of March 21, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 23.01 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 2.32 cents/pound. In February 2025, China's refined copper production increased by 44,400 tons month - on - month, a rise of 4.38%, and increased by 11.35% year - on - year [6] Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 137,900 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the previous period. As of March 24, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 108,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 216,800 tons, a slight decrease of 8,400 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 93,800 short tons, an increase of 651 short tons from the previous period [9]