PP策略：震荡上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PP industry is "Oscillating upward", and the strategy is "Wait and see" [1] Core View of the Report - After the seventh week of the Spring Festival holiday, the overall downstream PP operating rate continued to rise month - on - month but remained at a relatively low level this year. The increase in new maintenance devices led to a decline in the PP enterprise operating rate. Although the downstream demand is expected to continue to recover, the current downstream recovery is slow, with limited new orders and weak restocking willingness. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see the PP05 contract [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The overall downstream PP operating rate continued to rise month - on - month, with the plastic weaving operating rate up 0.9 percentage points to 47.4%. The US tariff increase is unfavorable for PP downstream product exports. New maintenance devices such as Hainan Ethylene led to a decline in the PP enterprise operating rate to about 82%. The downstream gradually resumed work, and the petrochemical inventory decreased to a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The upstream crude oil price rebounded to provide cost support. It is recommended to wait and see the PP05 contract [1] Futures Market - The PP2505 contract oscillated upward with reduced positions, closing at 7347 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The trading volume decreased by 19,681 lots to 365,320 lots [2] Spot Market - PP spot prices showed a mixed trend, with拉丝 priced at 7150 - 7540 yuan/ton and copolymer at 7265 - 7740 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the PP enterprise operating rate to about 82%. On the demand side, as of the week of March 21, the downstream PP operating rate rose 0.46 percentage points to 50.44%. The petrochemical inventory decreased by 1.5 tons to 71 tons on Thursday, lower than the same period last year. The Brent crude oil 06 contract rose above $72/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $5/ton to $820/ton [6]