海外札记：“特朗普看跌期权”和它的行权价

Market Indicators - The recent decline in U.S. stocks is linked to the loss of faith in the "Trump Put," which has contributed to a rebound in risk premiums and a risk-off sentiment in dollar assets[6] - The S&P 500 index has experienced a maximum decline of 10.1% and the Nasdaq Composite index a maximum decline of 13.7% since January 17, 2025, with significant technical breakdowns occurring[20] - Historical data shows that in 2018, the S&P 500 fell by 10.1% and 19.6% during two major downturns, while the Nasdaq saw declines of 8.5% and 23%[14] Economic Performance - Current economic conditions in the U.S. are worse than before the 2018 trade war but better than mid-2019 before interest rate cuts, with no signs of recession in hard data[30] - Recent soft indicators have deteriorated significantly, resembling the conditions before the 2019 rate cuts, raising concerns about future hard data weakness[30] - The proportion of stock assets in U.S. household financial portfolios has risen to over 29%, indicating a higher systemic importance of the stock market compared to 2018[22] Political Capital - Trump's national approval rating has decreased from a high of 51.3% to 47.9%, reflecting a decline of 3.4% in just two months[34] - Key swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa have shown a recent decline in net support for Trump, which could impact policy decisions[34] - Historical trends indicate that agricultural states' political capital is sensitive to trade war pressures and falling agricultural prices, which could influence Trump's policy stance[34]