Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the industry is rated as neutral with a slight downward bias [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The black - series varieties showed mixed trends. The supply - side impact of local steel mill production cuts was limited, while demand was in a slow recovery process. The market was in a state where hot - rolled coils were stronger than rebar, and furnace materials were weaker than finished products. A full - fledged market reversal was yet to be confirmed [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On March 27, rebar closed at 3208 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; hot - rolled coils closed at 3381 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; iron ore closed at 789 yuan/ton, up 1.28%; coke in the double - coke category showed strong performance [1] Market Analysis - Supply Side: Local steel mill production cuts in some areas had a limited impact on the overall supply - demand pattern, mainly boosting sentiment. In mid - March, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was 216600 tons, a 1.6% increase from the previous period. Among the five major steel products, only cold - rolled production decreased slightly, while the rest increased slightly [1] - Demand Side: Demand was slowly recovering. As of March 25, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 57.87%, a 0.34 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, lower than the same period last year. However, the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 48.83%, a 1.4% increase from the previous week, better than the same period last year. The national construction steel trading volume on the 24th was 141900 tons, showing a continuous decline in the past two days. The apparent demand for the five major steel products was at a record low for the same period in recent years. Specifically, cold - rolled demand decreased, wire rod demand increased by over 5%, rebar demand increased by 0.96% to 245320 tons, reaching a five - month high, and hot - rolled demand increased by 2.43% to 338690 tons, reaching a four - year high [1] Investment Recommendations - Iron Ore: Monitor supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Adopt a short - term oscillatory trading strategy and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1] - Hot - Rolled Coils: Adopt a short - term high - level consolidation trading strategy and focus on supply - demand changes [1] - Double - Coke: Monitor the post - decline stabilization and oscillatory market or the strength relationship between coke and coking coal [1]
黑色产业数据每日监测-2025-03-27
Jin Shi Qi Huo·2025-03-27 12:50