Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.77%, closing at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The international crude oil price fell weakly, which was positive for polyester, a substitute for US cotton, and negative for US cotton. The US cotton fell 0.16% overnight, closing at 67.48 cents/pound ICE. The subsequent marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy trends should be monitored. Domestically, the recent destocking of cotton continued to decline, and the market was still mainly for replenishment based on rigid demand. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a volatile trend [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.77%, closing at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The international crude oil price fell weakly, which was positive for polyester, a substitute for US cotton, and negative for US cotton. The US cotton fell 0.16% overnight, closing at 67.48 cents/pound ICE [1][2]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 18, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,011 (-67) sheets, including 7,762 (-67) registered warehouse receipts and 249 (+0) valid forecasts [3][4]. - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton exports totaled 2.83 million tons, a 5.8% increase from 2023/24, the highest export volume in the same period in history. In July 2025, Brazil exported 127,000 tons of cotton, a 24% decrease compared to July 2024 [4]. - As of August 15, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.8561 million tons, a decrease of 150,600 tons or 7.50% from the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period. Xinjiang's commercial cotton was 1.1319 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons or 11.70% from the previous week. The commercial cotton in the inland area was 418,900 tons, an increase of 14,900 tons or 3.69% from the previous week [4]. - As of August 14, based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative processed lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold lint cotton was 6.536 million tons, an increase of 1.097 million tons year-on-year and 1.041 million tons higher than the average of the past four years [5]. - In July 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 150,000 tons or 73.2% year-on-year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 520,000 tons, a decrease of 1.49 million tons or 74.2% year-on-year. In July 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.4% year-on-year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons or 14% year-on-year [5]. 3. Data Charts - The report provides charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, cotton yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][11][13] 4. Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, after the "Trump - Putin meeting", there was no substantial progress in the cease - fire of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US and Russia may need to conduct multiple consultations. The US economic data was mixed, and the consumer confidence index may have been affected by the lack of substantial progress in various negotiations. Brazil's cotton production is expected to reach a new high, and Brazilian cotton has shown strong development momentum in recent years [14]. - Domestically, the recent destocking of cotton continued to decline, and the market was still mainly for replenishment based on rigid demand. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a volatile trend [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract fluctuates widely, with strong support in the 3120 - 3130 range, remaining in an upward - prone and downward - resistant pattern in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term target is set at 3300. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to rise, but the inventory pressure of oil mills restricts the recovery of the spot basis [17][18]. - For live pigs, the short - term slaughter rhythm may change due to farmers' resistance to price cuts, and the spot price will adjust steadily. The decline of live pig futures prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait for a callback to lightly test long positions [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The main DCE soybean meal 2601 contract rose 0.57% to 3155 yuan/ton, and coastal oil mills' quotes increased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The main DCE live pig 2601 contract decreased by 0.46% to 14160 yuan/ton, and the national average ex - factory price of live pigs dropped by 0.02 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 1.14% to 1043 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - Temperatures in the US Midwest will rise this weekend. There will be scattered showers in the north of the western region until Sunday and on Monday, and temperatures from Friday to Monday will be above normal. The eastern region was generally dry on Friday, with scattered showers in the north from Saturday to Monday, and temperatures above normal. There may be floods in some areas around Minnesota and Wisconsin, and more areas may face drought after the front passes [3]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - As of the week ending August 15, the domestic soybean crushing volume of major oil mills was 234 million tons, up 16 million tons week - on - week, 3 million tons month - on - month, 31 million tons year - on - year, and 52 million tons higher than the average of the past three years. It is expected to reach 240 million tons this week [4]. - On August 18, the import cost of US soybeans was 4656 yuan, up 49 yuan from the previous day, and that of Brazilian soybeans was 4047 yuan, up 59 yuan [4]. - On August 15, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal decreased to 66,000 tons, with spot trading volume at 15,000 tons and basis trading volume at 51,000 tons. The average trading price dropped to 3086 yuan/ton [4]. - The US Department of Agriculture maintained the 2025/26 US soybean meal supply - demand data unchanged, with production at 59.85 million short tons, up 4.5% year - on - year; domestic consumption at 41.775 million short tons, up 2.8%; exports at 18.7 million short tons, up 4.5%; ending stocks at 475,000 short tons, up 5.6%; and the annual average price down 10 dollars to 280 dollars/short ton [5]. - On August 15, the crushing profit of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipment was - 53 to - 78 yuan/ton, up 31 - 46 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot crushing profit was - 2 to 22 yuan/ton, up 28 - 44 yuan/ton [6]. - As of the week ending August 10, Canadian rapeseed exports increased 864.4% to 254,600 tons, and the commercial inventory was 940,200 tons [6]. - Last week, US soybean futures prices fluctuated upwards, and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans declined slightly. On August 15, the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for October shipment was 300 cents/bushel, down 27 cents/bushel week - on - week; that for November shipment was 310 cents/bushel, down 30 cents/bushel [7]. - NOPA reported that US member units crushed 195.699 million bushels of soybeans in July, up 5.6% from June and 7% from July 2024 [7]. - The central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 154.5 billion yuan [7]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 15.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 84.6%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 42.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 51.5% [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live pig prices in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][14][16] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, US soybean futures rose on Friday, and the NOPA report showed an increase in soybean crushing in July. The Pro Farmer crop tour results may break the market's oscillation pattern. The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract is expected to rise, and the spot price is likely to increase, but the inventory pressure of oil mills restricts the basis recovery [17][18]. - For live pigs, the supply may change due to farmers' attitudes, and the demand is expected to improve with the start of school and holiday preparations. It is recommended to wait for a callback to lightly test long positions [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the US soybean crush volume in July reached a six - month high and exceeded market expectations. CBOT soybean prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 were strong, with only a slight month - on - month increase in production, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price remained strong. Domestically, the soybean oil inventory continued to rise, and factors like increased exports and the Sino - US trade risk premium supported the soybean oil price. The mid - autumn festival stocking will start at the end of the month, and the progress of the Sino - US game should be followed. The palm oil inventory rose slightly, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its futures price mainly follows the cost of the external market. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory is on a downward trend. Despite rumors of active far - month transactions of Australian rapeseed, the expectation of tight rapeseed imports remains due to the Sino - Canadian tariff issue [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre [2]. - The NOPA's monthly crush report showed that on July 31, 2025, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA members was 1.379 billion pounds, a 0.4% decrease from the end of June and an 8% decrease from the same period last year [2]. - From August 1 - 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month [2]. - As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1427 million tons, a 0.44% increase from the previous week [2]. - As of the week ending August 10, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed increased by 864.4% to 254,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the commercial inventory was 940,200 tons [3]. - As of the week ending August 15, the soybean crush volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.34 million tons, with increases compared to the previous week, the previous month, the same period last year, and the average of the past three years [3]. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content about fundamental data charts is provided other than the title. Views and Strategies - International: The US soybean crush volume in July was high, exceeding expectations. The CBOT soybean price is oscillating narrowly. Malaysian palm oil exports are strong, and its futures price is strong [5]. - Domestic: Soybean oil inventory is rising, and price is supported. Pay attention to the Sino - US game. Palm oil inventory rises slightly, and its price follows the external market. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the expectation of tight imports remains [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The terminal demand in the black industry continues to be weak, spot trading is poor, and speculative demand has also weakened. However, there is still an expectation of production restrictions. Recently, market sentiment has cooled significantly. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the black industry, but differentiation among varieties may intensify [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures generally declined. The rebar closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 0.88%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3460 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the iron ore main contract closed at 772 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke both declined today, with the coking coal decline close to 3% [1]. Market Analysis - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 406,100 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. Both the social inventory and the steel mill inventory increased by nearly 3% month - on - month. Specifically, the steel mill inventories of all five varieties increased to varying degrees. The wire rod steel mill inventory increased by 8.13%, and its total inventory increased by 5.5%, with the apparent demand decreasing by 1.35% month - on - month. Rebar was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in production among the five major varieties. The steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, the social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and the total inventory also decreased by 5.5%. However, the apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, reaching a new low in the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [1]. - **Supply**: The profitability rate of 247 steel mills rebounded by 2.6% to 65.8%. The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% compared with last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 3,400 tons to 240,660 tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2%. Last week, the shortage of scrap resources remained unchanged. Since the increase in scrap prices was greater than that of rebar, the spread between rebar and scrap narrowed. The daily average crude steel output of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased by 0.86% week - on - week. However, some regions with high profits still had steel mills resuming production. As of August 15, the average capacity utilization rate and operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills both increased month - on - month [1]. Investment Advice - **Iron ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the change in the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The DCE soybean meal and live hog futures showed downward trends on August 14, while the CBOT US soybean futures rose. The market is influenced by factors such as weather in the US Midwest, Brazilian soybean exports, and domestic supply - demand dynamics [1][2]. - The price of CBOT soybean futures is expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall due to factors like the overall downward adjustment of the US soybean harvest outlook and the undetermined weather situation. The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract is expected to reach new highs from September to October [15][16]. - The live hog market currently has an increase in supply from the breeding side and weak demand. However, the near - term contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [19]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2601 contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous trading day. The prices of coastal mainstream oil mills dropped by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2601 contract closed at 14130 yuan/ton, down 1.15%. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 13.72 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybean main contract rose 0.94% to 1042 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the western part has active rainfall, and the eastern part is relatively dry. The temperature from last Thursday to this Monday was close to or higher than normal. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows sporadic showers from Tuesday to Saturday, with the temperature close to or higher than normal. Most areas have good soil moisture as corn and soybeans enter the reproductive stage [3][4]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - From August 10 to 16, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be 2.34 million tons, soybean meal exports 639,100 tons, and corn exports 2.1834 million tons [5]. - On August 13, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal shrank to 75,000 tons, with the average trading price rising to 3104.36 yuan/ton, reaching a three - month high [5]. - Affected by the improvement of the fundamentals in the US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report and the increasing weather risk premium, the CBOT soybean futures rose. On August 14, the import cost of US soybeans reached 4672 yuan, Brazilian soybeans 4075 yuan, and Argentine soybeans 3881 yuan, reaching new highs [5]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 50.2 million tons, up 2% from the previous estimate [6]. - As of August 7, the expected net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 market year are between 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year are 400,000 - 900,000 tons. The expected net sales of US soybean meal in the 2024/25 market year are between 50,000 - 250,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year are 100,000 - 250,000 tons [6]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.8 million tons [6]. - On August 14, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.17 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.19 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.1% [7]. - In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [7]. - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December this year [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report presents charts related to the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and live hogs, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China [10][11][15]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures are expected to be bullish. The domestic continuous soybean meal M01 contract is in a strong position in the short - term, with the upper pressure range at 3250 - 3300 and the lower support at 3120. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to reach new highs from September to October. The spot price of soybean meal has increased, but the downstream demand is weak. The basis in the fourth quarter is not expected to decline significantly [16][17]. - **Live Hogs**: The supply from the breeding side has increased, and the demand is currently weak. The near - term contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [19].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - International: The USDA's August supply and demand report lowered the expected yield and ending stocks of US soybeans, causing the CBOT soybean price to reach a one - month high. Malaysia's decision to raise the September palm oil tariff may suppress exports, leading to a high - level correction in Malaysian palm oil futures [5]. - Domestic: The inventory of soybean oil continues to rise. Increased exports and the continuation of Sino - US trade risk premiums support the soybean oil price, but short - term profit - taking by bulls puts pressure on the price. The palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its futures price mainly follows the cost of the external market. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory remained stable last week but the downward trend persists. China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed will significantly restrict imports, resulting in a tight medium - to - long - term supply. With the cooling of market sentiment, the rapeseed oil futures price has basically filled the previous gap [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro and Industry News - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 50.2 million tons, a 2% upward revision from the previous forecast, with an estimated range of 49.4 - 51 million tons [2]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August 2025 are estimated to be 8.8 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 8.15 million tons [2]. - Malaysia has set the export tax for September crude palm oil at 10%, up from 9% in August, with the tax rising by 17.7% from $81.8/ton in August to $96.3/ton [2]. - India's oil imports in July decreased by 10.5% month - on - month, while its vegetable oil imports increased by 2% [2]. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided in the report Views and Strategies - International: The CBOT soybean price reached a one - month high due to the USDA's report, and the potential suppression of Malaysian palm oil exports by the tariff increase led to a high - level correction in its futures [5]. - Domestic: Different trends are shown for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in terms of inventory, supply - demand, and price movements [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends. Globally, the total cotton production is expected to decrease, while consumption is slightly reduced, and ending stocks are significantly down. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends [1][2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,287 (-82) sheets, including 8,006 (-81) registered warehouse receipts and 281 (-1) valid forecasts [3]. - In mid - August, the average temperature in southern and eastern Xinjiang was higher, while in other areas it was slightly lower. Precipitation was higher in the western parts of northern and southern Xinjiang and lower in other areas. The meteorological conditions in mid - August were favorable for agricultural and livestock production, but the previous high - temperature weather was unfavorable for cotton boll growth [4]. - As of August 10, the national budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [4]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed that the expected US cotton yield in 2025/2026 was 862 pounds per acre, up 53 pounds from the July forecast; production was expected to be 2.88 million tons, down 300,000 tons from July; and ending stocks were expected to be 780,000 tons, down 220,000 tons from July [4]. - Globally, the expected total cotton production in this season is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons or 1.5%; consumption is expected to be 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons or 0.1%; and ending stocks are 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons or 4.4% [4]. - In July 2025, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 35.71%, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][12][17]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks jointly announced that the 24% tariff would be suspended again for 90 days from August 12, 2025. The USDA's August supply - demand report was positive for cotton prices, leading to a rise in US cotton. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of CBOT soybean is bullish due to USDA's significant reduction in planting area, but the upward momentum of soybean import cost is insufficient under the background of global protein raw material supply surplus. It is expected to maintain a stable and slightly rising trend. For domestic soybean meal, the futures price is pushed up by multiple factors, but there is a risk of chasing high, and the spot price is affected by market sentiment rather than supply - demand fundamentals. For live pigs, the current supply increases and demand is weak, but the near - month contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with a suggestion of light - position trial long trading [5][16][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - DCE soybean meal main 2601 contract rose 2.33% to 3163 yuan/ton, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes increasing by 70 - 110 yuan/ton. DCE live pig main 2601 contract fell 0.90% to 14295 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer ternary live pigs rose to 13.7 yuan/kg. Overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 2.18% to 1032 cents/bushel [2] 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the west has active rainfall and the east is relatively dry. The temperature is close to or higher than normal levels. The weather is expected to have sporadic showers in the future, and most areas have good soil moisture for crops [3][4] 3.3 Macroeconomic and Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's August report unexpectedly cut the soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres, raised the yield per acre, and the ending stocks decreased. The import cost of US, Brazilian and Argentine soybeans increased. The initial ruling of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed led to a sharp increase in the import cost of Canadian rapeseed. Brazil's August soybean, soybean meal and corn export volume forecasts increased. The US inflation data was higher than expected, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates was high. The global oilseed production in 2025/26 was cut by 3.3 million tons [5][6][7] 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean futures are expected to be strong in the short - term, but the export demand may limit the upside. Domestic soybean meal futures prices are pushed up by favorable factors, but there is a risk of chasing high. The spot price is affected by market sentiment, and the supply is in surplus. Feed enterprises are cautious [16] - **Live Pigs**: On the supply side, the supply increases as farmers reduce the weight of pigs for sale. On the demand side, the demand is weak due to high temperature, and is expected to improve during the school opening and double - holiday stocking periods. The spot price is falling, the near - month contracts are relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with a suggestion of light - position trial long trading [18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Multiple positive factors are driving the continuous strength of the oil and fat market. Internationally, the USDA's August supply and demand report led to a significant increase in CBOT soybean prices, and Malaysian palm oil futures continued to rise. Domestically, soybean oil prices are supported by inventory and other factors, palm oil follows external costs, and rapeseed oil has policy - related risks after price increases [1][5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's soybean export volume in August is expected to reach 8.8 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 8.15 million tons [2] - The USDA's August supply and demand report shows that the expected soybean planting area in the US for the 2025/2026 season decreased by 2.5 million acres month - on - month, and the expected output decreased by 43 million bushels month - on - month [2] - As of August 8, India's oilseed sowing area decreased by 4% year - on - year. If the trend continues, edible oil imports may exceed 20 million tons in the next six to seven years [2] - On August 12, the cost of Canadian rapeseed imported to China, including margin, reached 8,394 yuan/ton, making it difficult to enter the Chinese market [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided in the given content 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the USDA's August supply and demand report led to a sharp rise in CBOT soybean prices. The MPOB monthly report and high - frequency data contributed to the rise of Malaysian palm oil futures [5][6] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, and factors like export increase and trade risk premium support its price. Palm oil inventory slightly rises, with a supply - demand weak pattern, and its futures price follows external costs. Rapeseed oil inventory has a downward trend, and the temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may affect imports, with policy risks to be watched [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - temperature weather persists, terminal demand remains weak, speculative demand weakens, and futures price fluctuations are limited. In the short - term, the steel market is dominated by macro logic, and prices are mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures turned down overall. The rebar closed at 3222 yuan/ton, down 0.92%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3451 yuan/ton, down 0.66%; the iron ore closed at 795 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke fell, with the coking coal dropping by 3% [1] Market Analysis - According to the August 9th Mysteel research data, some independent section steel rolling enterprises have received production suspension and restriction notices. From August 16th to 25th, Tangshan independent rolling enterprises may stop production at any time; from August 20th to September 5th, key areas in Tangshan will implement graded control, and sintering machines, blast furnaces, and rolling lines will be restricted as required. From August 25th to September 3rd, production must stop. If the measures are implemented, the daily output of 35 section steel enterprises in Tangshan will be affected by about 90,000 tons. Currently, the inventory in section steel rolling mills is okay, and the short - term supply is not greatly affected. The market sentiment is okay, and transactions are gradually improving [1] - In terms of supply, last week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased to 68.4%, a 10 - month high. The blast furnace operating rate slightly increased to 83.75%, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.09%. The daily average hot metal output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 2.4032 million tons, but the year - on - year increase was 3.72%. Some electric arc furnace steel mills in certain regions are in full - scale losses, and some have reduced production. However, some regions with high profits still have steel mills resuming production, leading to an increase in the operating rate to a two - month high, but a slight decrease in capacity utilization. Steel mills face the situation of steel inventory accumulation and increased scrap steel recycling costs. It is expected that the profits of electric arc furnace steel mills will continue to decline, and there may be further production cuts [1] Brief Evaluation - The decline in real estate market investment and construction remains the main factor restricting the terminal demand for construction steel. Coupled with the continuous high - temperature weather, the terminal demand in the off - season is weak, and there is no obvious improvement in the short - term demand side. Last week, the inventory of five major steel products increased by 234,700 tons to 13.7536 million tons, a more than two - month high. Among them, the social inventory increased by 201,300 tons month - on - month. The inventory and output of rebar both increased, and the apparent demand increased by 3.63% month - on - month; the output of hot - rolled coils decreased, the inventory increased month - on - month, and the apparent demand decreased by 4.31%, reaching a six - month low [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices. Rebar: Investors are advised to take an oscillating approach in the short - term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short - term and pay attention to supply - demand changes. Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]