| | | | 截止 | 尊位 | 昨日 | �H | 涨跌量 | 涨跌幅 | 用同比 | 年回出 | 力史位直 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF01 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收营快 成交量 | 8/18 8/18 | 元/四 主 | 13880 138929 | 14125 165984 | 245 27055 | 1.77% 19.47% | -145 -199759 | 745 -39164 | 35.63% 50.11% | | | (主力) | 持仓量 | 8/18 | ਵੇ | 381833 | 486067 | 104234 | 27.30% | -94706 | 79543 | 81.21% | | | | 汪洲谷南 | 8/18 | 张 | 7829 | 7762 | -67 | -0.86% | -1770 | -2220 | 66.97% | | 期货 | | 有效预报 | 8/18 | કેર્સ | 249 | 249 | ...

豆粕生猪：进口成本支撑 连粕震荡上涨 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 会口期货 THE FITTINE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載生 | 車位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 8月18日 | 元/吨 | 3155 | 3137 | 18.00 | 0.57% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 8月18日 | 元/吨 | 2847 | 2822 | 25.00 | 0.89% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 8月18日 | 元/吨 | 3100 | 3083 | 17.00 | 0.55% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 8月18日 | 元/吨 | 2590 | 2546 | 44.00 | 1.73% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 8月18日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the US soybean crush volume in July reached a six - month high and exceeded market expectations. CBOT soybean prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 were strong, with only a slight month - on - month increase in production, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price remained strong. Domestically, the soybean oil inventory continued to rise, and factors like increased exports and the Sino - US trade risk premium supported the soybean oil price. The mid - autumn festival stocking will start at the end of the month, and the progress of the Sino - US game should be followed. The palm oil inventory rose slightly, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its futures price mainly follows the cost of the external market. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory is on a downward trend. Despite rumors of active far - month transactions of Australian rapeseed, the expectation of tight rapeseed imports remains due to the Sino - Canadian tariff issue [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre [2]. - The NOPA's monthly crush report showed that on July 31, 2025, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA members was 1.379 billion pounds, a 0.4% decrease from the end of June and an 8% decrease from the same period last year [2]. - From August 1 - 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month [2]. - As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1427 million tons, a 0.44% increase from the previous week [2]. - As of the week ending August 10, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed increased by 864.4% to 254,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the commercial inventory was 940,200 tons [3]. - As of the week ending August 15, the soybean crush volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.34 million tons, with increases compared to the previous week, the previous month, the same period last year, and the average of the past three years [3]. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content about fundamental data charts is provided other than the title. Views and Strategies - International: The US soybean crush volume in July was high, exceeding expectations. The CBOT soybean price is oscillating narrowly. Malaysian palm oil exports are strong, and its futures price is strong [5]. - Domestic: Soybean oil inventory is rising, and price is supported. Pay attention to the Sino - US game. Palm oil inventory rises slightly, and its price follows the external market. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the expectation of tight imports remains [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The terminal demand in the black industry continues to be weak, spot trading is poor, and speculative demand has also weakened. However, there is still an expectation of production restrictions. Recently, market sentiment has cooled significantly. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the black industry, but differentiation among varieties may intensify [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures generally declined. The rebar closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 0.88%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3460 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the iron ore main contract closed at 772 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke both declined today, with the coking coal decline close to 3% [1]. Market Analysis - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 406,100 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. Both the social inventory and the steel mill inventory increased by nearly 3% month - on - month. Specifically, the steel mill inventories of all five varieties increased to varying degrees. The wire rod steel mill inventory increased by 8.13%, and its total inventory increased by 5.5%, with the apparent demand decreasing by 1.35% month - on - month. Rebar was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in production among the five major varieties. The steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, the social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and the total inventory also decreased by 5.5%. However, the apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, reaching a new low in the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [1]. - **Supply**: The profitability rate of 247 steel mills rebounded by 2.6% to 65.8%. The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% compared with last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 3,400 tons to 240,660 tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2%. Last week, the shortage of scrap resources remained unchanged. Since the increase in scrap prices was greater than that of rebar, the spread between rebar and scrap narrowed. The daily average crude steel output of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased by 0.86% week - on - week. However, some regions with high profits still had steel mills resuming production. As of August 15, the average capacity utilization rate and operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills both increased month - on - month [1]. Investment Advice - **Iron ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the change in the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].

豆粕生猪：利好情绪释放 连粕小幅震荡 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 金白期货 JIDGHI FILTURE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 8月14日 | 元/吨 | 3157 | 3163 | -6.00 | -0.19% | | | DCE日期: 05 | 8月14日 | 元/吨 | 2845 | 2850 | -5.00 | -0.18% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 8月14日 | 元/吨 | 3100 | 3106 | -6.00 | -0.19% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 8月14日 | 元/吨 | 2606 | 2688 | -82.00 | -3.05% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 ...

油脂：多头大量回补 油脂高位回调 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | ਦੇ | E | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 朗宗 | DCE豆油主力 | 8月14日 | 元/吨 | 8520.00 | 8576.00 | -56.00 | -0.65% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 8月14日 | 元/吨 | 9368.00 | 9424.00 | -56.00 | -0.59% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 8月14日 | 元/吨 | 9840.00 | 10064.00 | -224.00 | -2.23% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 8月13日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1042.00 | 1032.25 | 9.75 | 0.94% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 8月13日 | 美分/磅 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends. Globally, the total cotton production is expected to decrease, while consumption is slightly reduced, and ending stocks are significantly down. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends [1][2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,287 (-82) sheets, including 8,006 (-81) registered warehouse receipts and 281 (-1) valid forecasts [3]. - In mid - August, the average temperature in southern and eastern Xinjiang was higher, while in other areas it was slightly lower. Precipitation was higher in the western parts of northern and southern Xinjiang and lower in other areas. The meteorological conditions in mid - August were favorable for agricultural and livestock production, but the previous high - temperature weather was unfavorable for cotton boll growth [4]. - As of August 10, the national budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [4]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed that the expected US cotton yield in 2025/2026 was 862 pounds per acre, up 53 pounds from the July forecast; production was expected to be 2.88 million tons, down 300,000 tons from July; and ending stocks were expected to be 780,000 tons, down 220,000 tons from July [4]. - Globally, the expected total cotton production in this season is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons or 1.5%; consumption is expected to be 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons or 0.1%; and ending stocks are 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons or 4.4% [4]. - In July 2025, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 35.71%, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][12][17]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks jointly announced that the 24% tariff would be suspended again for 90 days from August 12, 2025. The USDA's August supply - demand report was positive for cotton prices, leading to a rise in US cotton. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [18].

豆粕生猪：美农报告超预期 连粕大幅上涨 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 美国中西部地区的西部降雨活跃，东部保持相对干燥。【西部】本周一前局部有零星阵 雨。上周四至本周一气温接近至高于正常水平。【东部】上周四局部有阵雨。上周五至周日 1 / 5 天气大体上干燥。本周一局部有阵雨。上周四至本周一气温接近至高于正常水平。6-10 日 展望：本周二至周六局部有零星阵雨。气温接近至高于正常水平。作物影响：上周前半段， 中西部的西部地区天气很活跃，气温也在变暖，一些地方的高温达到了 90 多华氏度。到上 周末，一股更强的锋面将进入该地区，带来分散阵雨和轻微降温，西部气温接近 平均水平。 东部将保持相对干燥，直到本周初冷锋到来。随着玉米和大豆进入繁殖阶段，大多数地区的 土壤湿度保持良好状态。 三、宏观、行业要闻 | | 完日期货 JUSHI FILLIBE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1、巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）周二公布数据显示，巴西 8 月大豆出口量预计触 及 880 万吨，之前一周预估为 815 万吨。 2、美国农业部 8 月供需报告：8 月美国 2025/2026 年度大豆种植面积预期 8090 万英亩， 7 月预期为 8340 万英亩，环比减少 250 万英亩；8 月美国 2025/2026 年度大豆产量预期 42.92 亿蒲式耳，7 月预期为 43.35 亿蒲式耳，环比减少 0.43 亿蒲式耳。 3、印度政府数据显示，截至 8 月 8 日，油籽播种面积同比下降 4%，而玉米面积则增长 10.5%，创历史新高。业内人士预计，若趋势持续，未来六至七年食用油进口可能超过 2000 万吨，加剧全球供应紧张并推高价格。 油脂：多重利多叠加 油脂持续走强 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | | | 数据 信 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令 ...

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（8.13） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 | | | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3222 -30 -0.92% | | 3390 | 168 | | 热卷 | 3451 -23 | -0.66% | 3490 | 39 | | 铁矿 | 795 0 0.00% | | 782 | -13 | | 焦煤 | 1245 -38.5 -3.00% | | 980 | -265 | | 焦炭 | 1737 -50.5 -2.83% 1431 -306 | | | | | | 市场概况 | | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体转跌。螺纹收于3222元/吨，下跌0.92%；热卷主力合 | | | | | | 约收于3451元/吨，下跌0.66%；铁矿今日主力合约收于795元/吨；双焦今天下 | | | | | | 跌，焦煤跌幅达3%。 | | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | | 据9日Mysteel调研数据显示，部分独立型钢轧钢企业已收到停限产通知。自8月 | | | | ...