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Core Views - For iron ore, it is recommended to adopt a volatile trading approach in the short - term, with the 2505 contract operating in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [3] - For copper, in the long - term, the market is expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, and attention should be paid to the 80000 - 83000 yuan/ton range [5] - For gold, it is recommended to maintain a bullish and volatile trading approach, with London gold spot focusing on the 2850 US dollars/ounce level and Shanghai gold futures focusing on the 650 yuan/gram level [10] - For silver, continue to monitor opportunities to go long on the gold - silver ratio [11] - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach, as the price is expected to decline in the long - term [12] - For crude oil, it is recommended to take small - position long positions recently [14] - For asphalt, it is recommended to take small - position long positions recently [16] - For PP, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for the PP05 contract [17] - For plastic, it is recommended to short the basis of the plastic 05 contract when it is high [19] - For PVC, it is expected to trade in a low - level volatile range [21] - For oils and fats, the 05 contract of palm oil is expected to trade in a volatile and downward - biased range; the 05 contract of soybean oil will trade in a volatile manner in the short - term and is expected to decline in April; the 05 contract of rapeseed oil has high inventory and weak support [22] - For soybean meal, the 05 contract is expected to trade in a downward - biased range [24] - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the futures prices are expected to trade in a volatile manner [25] - For coking coal, it is expected to trade in a low - level volatile range in the short - term, and previous short positions should be gradually closed at low prices [26] - For urea, the market is in a state of high - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to whether the market is affected by export news [28] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Supply pressure is gradually increasing, while short - term demand still has room for growth, but port inventory depletion pressure may gradually emerge - Steel mill profitability is acceptable, and molten iron production has not peaked, providing some support for ore prices, but crude steel production cuts are causing more disruptions - The 2505 contract is expected to operate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [3] Copper - The US tariff policy has led to increased supply disruptions, with lower processing fees for smelters, expected concentrated maintenance in April, and a tightening of scrap copper sources - Social inventory depletion has slowed down, suppressing the upside of copper prices; under the trade war, market demand expectations are weak, but there is still potential demand in the traditional peak season - In the long - term, the market is expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, and attention should be paid to the 80000 - 83000 yuan/ton range [4][5] Gold - Trump's policy uncertainty and changes in risk - aversion sentiment due to geopolitical conflicts are the main drivers of gold price changes - It is recommended to maintain a bullish and volatile trading approach, with London gold spot focusing on the 2850 US dollars/ounce level and Shanghai gold futures focusing on the 650 yuan/gram level [9][10] Silver - The US manufacturing PMI in March fell into the contraction range, and domestic photovoltaic and semiconductor material prices declined year - on - year - Silver prices generally follow gold prices, but due to concerns about the US economy and weak domestic demand, silver prices are relatively weaker than gold prices, and opportunities to go long on the gold - silver ratio should be monitored [11] Lithium Carbonate - Overseas supply has contracted due to a strike at an Australian lithium mine, but demand has weakened after subsidy cuts for new energy vehicles, and inventory pressure remains high - In the long - term, demand is expected to grow, but in the short - term, there is an oversupply problem, and the price is expected to decline. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [12] Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production in April, and the US has taken measures to affect the oil supply chain. US refinery operating rates have increased, and oil product inventories have decreased - Trump's tariff policy has raised concerns about the global economy, but the US plans to replenish its strategic oil reserves, and there are supply - side disruptions. It is recommended to take small - position long positions recently [14] Asphalt - Asphalt production is expected to increase in March, but the operating rate has declined. Downstream industries are gradually resuming work, but the recovery is slow - Inventory is at a low level but is rising. Due to factors such as US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, it is recommended to take small - position long positions recently [15][16] PP - PP downstream operating rates are gradually recovering but are still at a low level. Newly added maintenance devices have reduced the enterprise operating rate, and the production ratio of standard products has decreased - Petrochemical inventory is at a low level, and upstream crude oil prices provide cost support. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for the PP05 contract [17] Plastic - Plastic operating rates have decreased, and downstream operating rates are gradually recovering but are still at a low level. Petrochemical inventory is at a low level, and upstream crude oil prices provide cost support - With new production capacity coming on - stream and slow downstream recovery, it is recommended to short the basis of the plastic 05 contract when it is high [19] PVC - PVC operating rates have increased, but downstream demand recovery is slow, and export is affected by Indian policies. Social inventory is still high, but it has started to decline slowly - It is expected to trade in a low - level volatile range [20][21] Oils and Fats - Internationally, palm oil production is increasing while demand is decreasing seasonally, and inventory is starting to accumulate. Domestically, demand is weak, and import is restricted by negative profit margins - For soybean oil, the oil mill operating rate has decreased, and demand has weakened. For rapeseed oil, inventory is at a high level. The 05 contracts of palm oil and soybean oil are expected to trade in a volatile and downward - biased range [22] Soybean Meal - Overseas, South American soybean harvest is accelerating, and US soybean demand is under pressure. Domestically, the soybean crushing plant operating rate has decreased, and demand from downstream breeding enterprises is weak, leading to inventory accumulation - The 05 contract is expected to trade in a downward - biased range [23][24] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The fundamentals of finished products are moderately weak, with slow inventory depletion for rebar and good inventory depletion for hot - rolled coil. Demand has not peaked, and cost support still exists - The futures prices are expected to trade in a volatile manner [25] Coking Coal - Supply pressure is high due to increased domestic mine production and recovered Mongolian coal imports. Downstream coke production has recovered, but inventory is moderately high, and demand has limited elasticity - It is expected to trade in a low - level volatile range in the short - term, and previous short positions should be gradually closed at low prices [26] Urea - Upstream factory prices are firm, and supply is expected to remain stable in the short - term. Demand from traders is strong, and downstream demand is expected to increase in April - The market is in a state of high - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to whether the market is affected by export news [28]
冠通每日交易策略-2025-03-27
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-03-27 12:58