2025年1~2月工业企业利润数据点评：工业补库存开启

Group 1: Industrial Profit Overview - In January-February 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 910.99 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, but the growth rate accelerated by 3.0 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[3] - The operating income of industrial enterprises increased by 2.8% year-on-year, which is 0.7 percentage points faster than the full year of 2024[8] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises decreased by 0.17 percentage points compared to the same period last year, contributing to a drag of 3.6 percentage points on profit growth, although this drag has reduced by 2.8 percentage points compared to 2024[10] Group 2: Sector Contributions - Manufacturing is the main support for profit stabilization, with profit growth in the manufacturing sector increasing by 8.7 percentage points to 4.8% compared to the entire year of 2024[16] - Raw materials manufacturing contributed 1.3 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth, with profits turning from decline to increase, indicating reduced costs supporting profits[19] - Equipment manufacturing contributed 1.4 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth, with a year-on-year profit increase of 5.4%[19] Group 3: Inventory and Debt Dynamics - By the end of February 2025, the inventory of finished goods in industrial enterprises increased by 4.2% year-on-year, up 0.9 percentage points from December 2024[24] - The growth rate of liabilities outpaced that of assets, with total assets and liabilities growing by 5.0% and 5.4% respectively, indicating improved corporate expectations[28] - Accounts receivable increased by 9.2% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing issues with delayed payments from local governments and inter-enterprise debts[28] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include the potential ineffectiveness of growth stabilization policies, overseas economic recession, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[33] - The recovery of the industrial output gap in the second half of 2024 suggests a basis for inventory growth in the first half of 2025[24]