原油周报：原油：伊朗制裁收紧？-2025-03-27

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a low - level shock. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has marginally rebounded, and the monthly spread has rebounded periodically. The hype of Iran's supply cut is the core reason for this round of strength. Currently, it is mainly based on expected trading. From a configuration perspective, long - term contracts can be partially over - allocated. [3] - The US Treasury has imposed the fourth round of sanctions on Iran this year. This round of sanctions is more precise, and the sanctions on Shandong Luqing and Huizhou Port have been intensified. Sanctions have shifted from path - based to buyer - based, which is an escalation of sanctions. The arrival of Iranian oil has been affected. [3] - The US has also strengthened sanctions on Venezuela. The impact of current policies on Venezuela is neutrally evaluated. [3] - Other fundamentals remain in a periodically improving state. After the spring maintenance, the seasonal start - up of refineries has begun to pick up, and the purchasing demand in the US and Europe has gradually emerged. If the upward driving force shifts from the supply side to the demand side, some positive arbitrage operations can be selectively carried out. [3] 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Market Influencing Factors - OPEC Production: OPEC's compensation production cut plan has been released. Conservatively assessing the compensation production cut intensity, sources claim that OPEC + may plan a second production increase in May, so the probability of an increase in supply is relatively high [4]. - Macro: The macro - environment remains weak, and the turning point of sentiment should be monitored [4]. - SPR: The US SPR repurchase plan has stopped. Trump said that the stockpiling step will be restarted in the low - oil - price range [4]. - Geopolitics: The US - Russia negotiation continues, and there are periodic conflicts in the Middle East. Overall, there are no new variables [4]. - Downstream Demand: The widening of downstream profits has driven the recovery of refinery start - up. Attention should be paid to the purchasing demand brought about by the subsequent increase in refinery start - up [4]. - Shale Oil: Last week, the production was 13.57 million barrels per day, and the number of rigs remained unchanged at 486. In the medium - to - long term, the boost to production is limited [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Table - Production: From 2023Q1 to 2025Q4, the total production shows an overall upward trend, with fluctuations in some quarters. OPEC production, NGL production, non - OPEC production, OECD production, and non - OECD production also have their own trends and changes [5]. - Demand: The total demand also fluctuates within a certain range from 2023Q1 to 2025Q4. OECD demand and non - OECD demand have their own characteristics [5]. - Call On OPEC: It shows different values in each quarter from 2023Q1 to 2025Q4, reflecting the demand for OPEC oil [5]. - Surplus: The surplus or deficit situation varies in different quarters, with positive and negative values indicating surplus and deficit respectively [5]. 3.3 Sanctions on Iran - As of now, the US has imposed four rounds of sanctions on Iran. The latest one on March 20 targeted buyers of Iranian goods, sanctioning Shandong Luqing Petrochemical, Huizhou Dayawan Huaying Petrochemical Terminal, 8 oil tankers, and 19 entities [7][9]. - Iran's seaborne exports have not decreased significantly. Exports to China have decreased sharply, and some goods have been transferred to floating storage. If the US wants to further reduce Iran's exports, it needs to further escalate sanctions [9]. 3.4 Sanctions on Venezuela - US President Trump said that he would impose a 25% tariff on all imports from any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela and impose new tariffs on Venezuela itself. The US has extended Chevron's operating license for its joint - venture oil company in Venezuela until May 27, 2025 [13]. - Currently, Venezuela's production is about 1 million barrels per day. If tariffs are further increased, production may further decrease, and it may exacerbate the shortage of heavy - oil in the US. However, the short - term impact on the market may be limited [13]. 3.5 OPEC + Compensation Production Cut - On March 20, OPEC + announced the latest compensation plan schedule, which is the first update this year. The future compensation production cut of these countries is about 250,000 barrels per day [15]. - The largest compensation - production - cut countries are Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Considering the easing of US - Russia relations, the actual compensation production cut may be less than expected [15]. 3.6 Geopolitical Situation - The Riyadh negotiation between the US and Ukraine has ended, mainly discussing whether the Russian president agrees to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative. After Trump's call with Putin, a cease - fire agreement on air infrastructure was reached, but the implementation remains to be seen [19]. - In the Middle East, the US continues to air - strike the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Trump has warned Iran not to support the Houthi rebels. Israel also continues to harass the Gaza area. Currently, there are no major geopolitical variables, but there will be some marginal disturbances [19]. 3.7 Fundamentals - In terms of fundamentals, the seasonal recovery of US refinery start - up continues. The latest refinery start - up rate has reached 86.9%, rising month - on - month. Commercial crude oil inventories continue to accumulate, and the Cushing crude oil inventory has significantly decreased [25]. - In the PADD1 area, the start - up of a major refinery has not recovered, but the overall warming trend of North American refineries continues [25]. 3.8 Spot Market - In the North Sea spot market, the recent discount has gradually improved. The latest CFD and DFL are 1.02 and 0.79 US dollars per barrel respectively, which is in a relatively high - neutral range [26]. 3.9 Spread Situation - As of March 25, the WTI near - term spread is 0.47 US dollars per barrel, and the 1 - 6 spread is 2.4 US dollars per barrel; the Brent near - term spread is 0.63 US dollars per barrel, and the 1 - 6 spread is 2.7 US dollars per barrel; the SC near - term spread is - 2.8 yuan per barrel [33]. 3.10 Positioning Situation - In the week of March 18, WTI long - terms increased by 4,305 lots, short - terms increased by 19,790 lots, and net long - terms decreased by 15,480 lots [49][50]. - In the week of March 18, Brent long - terms increased by 37,100 lots, short - terms decreased by 11,200 lots, and net long - terms increased by 48,310 lots [52][53].