Labor Market Overview - Since 2025, "soft indicators" such as consumer and business investor confidence indices have declined, while "hard indicators" like the labor market remain relatively robust, indicating a lagging economic response[3] - The non-farm labor demand-supply gap narrowed from 2.3 million in January 2024 to 0.6 million by December 2024, significantly below peak levels and slightly lower than the 2019 average[19] - The unemployment rate (U3) slightly decreased to 4.1% by December 2024, while the broader U6 unemployment rate remained stable at 7.5%[35] Immigration Impact - In 2024, the USCIS welcomed 818,500 new citizens, a 7% decrease from 2023, contributing to over 2.6 million new citizens in three years, with immigrants accounting for approximately 88% of labor force growth since 2019[25] - New immigrants have a higher unemployment rate during economic downturns and are more likely to take low-wage jobs, with 46% lacking a high school diploma by 2024, compared to 35% for U.S.-born residents[30] Wage Trends - Average hourly wage growth slowed to 4% in 2024 from 4.5% in 2023, with the employment cost index growth decreasing from 3.8% to 3.6%[49] - Labor productivity remained high at a year-on-year increase of 2.0% as of December 2024, providing some support against wage declines[78] Future Labor Market Predictions - The U6 unemployment rate rose from 7.5% in January 2025 to 8.0% in February 2025, indicating increased layoffs and a rise in part-time employment due to economic conditions[56] - The labor force participation rate fell from 62.6% to 62.4% during the same period, suggesting a tightening labor market[56] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include a global economic slowdown, increased inflation pressures from tariffs, and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains, which could lead to a more pronounced slowdown in the U.S. labor market[84]
宏观专题报告：美国劳动力市场会快速走弱吗？
Western Securities·2025-03-27 14:44