Report Core View - After continuous upward oscillations, the stock index has entered a "fatigued" state in the short term. A short - term oscillatory adjustment is likely. From a fundamental perspective, listed companies are in the intensive period of annual report announcements, and some funds will seek risk - avoidance. Technically, the MACD has a high - level death cross, indicating a need for further adjustment. The short - term trading strategy should be based on a weak - oscillation mindset [2]. - The long - term supply intensity is relatively high. As the traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the actual start of downstream demand. Technically, the indicators have been repaired, and the market closed up again today. It should be viewed with an oscillatory and bullish mindset [5]. - Recently, some production lines have been cold - repaired again, and the spot sales volume has improved. With the optimistic market sentiment influenced by recent policies, the actual demand still needs to be observed. Technically, the indicators show a double golden cross, and today there was a narrow - range consolidation. It should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset [7]. - The average production cost in the alumina industry is 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to the cost line. It should be viewed with an oscillatory and bullish mindset [10]. - With strong exports, many future maintenance expectations, and a strong basis, the futures contract 05 of caustic soda may be oversold. The alumina plants have been put into operation smoothly, and the short - term demand for caustic soda is not bad. From a supply - demand perspective, during the peak maintenance period of caustic soda plants from late March to April, there may be a temporary supply - demand mismatch, and caustic soda is expected to bottom out and rebound [13]. - Yesterday, the transaction rate of a 160,000 - ton soybean auction was low. There are market rumors that the customs clearance time for imported soybeans has been accelerated. The limited soybean sources of rural farmers support the soybean price. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages have a death cross. After a short - term sharp decline, it is in a low - level oscillatory consolidation [16]. - China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal. However, the import volume of Canadian rapeseed oil is small, and most is imported from Russia. The domestic inventory pressure remains high, and the short - term market is greatly affected by China - Canada policies. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages have a golden cross, and the short - term market is in an oscillatory pattern [19]. Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided.
金信期货日刊-2025-03-28
Jin Xin Qi Huo·2025-03-28 00:32