渤海证券研究所晨会纪要-2025-03-28

Macro and Strategy Analysis - The macroeconomic environment showed a stable start in January-February 2025 despite external adverse impacts and a high base from the previous year, with policies focusing on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption [2][3] - The liquidity situation in the macro environment remains tight, with the People's Bank of China maintaining a cautious stance on monetary policy, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decisions [2][3] - A-shares market liquidity has improved since the beginning of the year, driven by active themes and increased trading volumes, particularly in technology sectors, supported by favorable policies for long-term capital inflow [2][3] A-share Market Analysis - The A-share market will enter a verification phase with the upcoming Q1 earnings reports, which will provide important guidance for annual performance expectations [3] - In Q2, sectors with relatively certain earnings or high dividend yields, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, home appliances, and banking, are recommended for attention [3] - The consumer and TMT sectors may present thematic investment opportunities due to improved market risk appetite driven by expectations of overseas liquidity easing [3] Industrial Enterprise Performance - In January-February 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a reduction of 3.0 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, with improvements in volume and gross margin being the main drivers [4][6] - The industrial added value grew by 5.9% year-on-year, and the operating income increased by 2.8%, indicating a recovery in profitability [6][7] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a double-digit profit growth, reflecting the positive impact of previous policies aimed at vehicle replacement [6][7] Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market indices experienced adjustments, with the margin trading balance slightly decreasing to 1,923.58 billion yuan, a reduction of 20.39 billion yuan from the previous week [9][10] - The sectors with significant net buying in margin trading included basic chemicals, automotive, and social services, while the computer, electronics, and communications sectors saw less activity [10]