Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bonds are recommended for profit - taking and waiting [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Rebar is expected to fluctuate; iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly; coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][8]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended to add long positions on dips; aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,300 - 21,000; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; tin is expected to fluctuate strongly; gold and silver are expected to fluctuate [1][11][13][15]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC is expected to fluctuate; soda ash recommends holding short positions in call options; caustic soda is expected to fluctuate; urea and methanol are recommended for range - bound operations [1][20][22][23]. - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][25][27]. - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly; eggs are recommended to hedge on rallies for the near - term contracts and short on rallies for the far - term contracts; corn is recommended to go long on dips; soybean meal is recommended to be cautious when going long in the short - term; oils are expected to fluctuate within a range [1][28][30][31]. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international trade situations. For example, the macro - financial market is influenced by central bank policies and market sentiment; the black building materials market is affected by production, consumption, and international trade policies; the non - ferrous metals market is related to supply disruptions and demand expectations; the energy and chemical market is affected by supply - demand balances and cost factors; the cotton and textile industry chain is influenced by global supply - demand forecasts; and the agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by production, consumption, and trade policies [5][7][11]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: On Thursday, the underlying assets showed a fluctuating upward trend. The Shanghai 50ETF and the CSI 1000 had different intraday performances, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF having the largest intraday increase. The market shows resilience, and it is expected to fluctuate [5]. - Treasury Bonds: After a rapid recovery on Wednesday, the yields of spot bonds rebounded on Thursday morning. The main reasons were large - scale net withdrawals during the quarter - end and the fact that yields reached the previous intensive lock - in area. There are no substantial positive or negative factors, and the market is mainly affected by institutional profit - taking. It is recommended to take profits and wait [5]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: On Thursday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The production and apparent consumption of rebar increased slightly, and the destocking speed accelerated. The macro - policy is in line with expectations, but the economic data from January to February is weak. The static valuation is at a neutral level, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3,130 - 3,300 [7]. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly. The iron ore production increased, but the demand expectation is pessimistic. The发改委 mentioned the regulation of crude steel production, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke has been alleviated. The price of coking coal may stabilize, and the price center of coke may gradually stabilize. Attention should be paid to factors such as blast furnace复产, import volume, and policy expectations [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The US tariff policy and smelter maintenance affect the market. The downstream receiving willingness is weak, but the domestic inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and add on dips [11]. - Aluminum: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the downstream start - up rate has increased. The inventory has decreased. Affected by tariffs and policies, the aluminum price may have a callback. It is recommended to go long on dips, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 20,300 - 21,000 [13]. - Nickel: Affected by macro - policies and nickel ore regulations, the supply of refined nickel is high, and the downstream stainless steel is weak. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14]. - Tin: The downstream trading is weak, and the supply of tin ore is tight. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. The supply is expected to increase marginally. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions and not to chase the high. The reference range for the SHFE tin 05 contract is 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [15]. - Gold and Silver: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy, economic data, and tariff policies, the market's expectation of an early interest - rate cut has increased. The central bank's gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and not to chase the high [17]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate market, and the supply pressure is large. There is a spring - maintenance expectation from April to May, and the rebound space is limited. Attention should be paid to factors such as new production, maintenance, and downstream recovery [20]. - Caustic Soda: The recent market is weak. The inventory is high, and the price of liquid chlorine suppresses the caustic - soda price. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as delivery volume, non - aluminum demand, and inventory destocking [22]. - Urea: The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is stable. The inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage. The price has increased, but it is not recommended to chase the high. The reference range for the 05 contract is 1,720 - 1,900 [23]. - Methanol: The supply is at a medium - high level, and the demand is supported. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2,500 - 2,650. Attention should be paid to factors such as the macro - environment, production - device maintenance, and olefin start - up [23][24]. - Soda Ash: The supply has increased, and the spot market is weak. Although the demand has improved, the supply increase is fast, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [24]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: According to the USDA's global cotton supply - demand forecast, the supply and demand have both increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market consumption is not strong, and it is expected to fluctuate [25]. - Apples: The main apple - producing areas have stable transactions, and the inventory is low. It is expected that the apple price will fluctuate strongly [25]. - PTA: Affected by the international oil price and supply - demand factors, the PTA price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4,700 - 5,000 [27]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The short - term supply pressure is postponed, and the near - term contracts are relatively strong. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [28][30]. - Eggs: The short - term supply and demand have both increased, and the price is in a low - level shock. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 05 contract and short on rallies for the 08 and 09 contracts [30]. - Corn: The short - term spot price has support, and the medium - long - term supply - demand relationship is tightening. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 05 contract and pay attention to the 5 - 7 positive spread opportunity [31]. - Soybean Meal: In the short - term, the price is under pressure due to factors such as inventory and supply. In the long - term, the import cost is expected to increase, and the price has support. It is recommended to be cautious when going long in the short - term, hold short positions in call options for the 07 contract, and go long lightly on dips for the m2509 contract [33]. - Oils: In the short - term, the domestic oil market shows a differentiated trend. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to fluctuate within a range, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strong. In the medium - term, the oil price may decline. It is recommended to wait and see for the 05 contracts of palm oil and soybean oil, pay attention to the 9,300 pressure level for rapeseed oil, and consider the strategy of expanding the spread for the 09 contracts of rapeseed oil and other oils [39][40].
期货市场交易指引-2025-03-28
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-03-28 01:29