有色金属日报-2025-03-28

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the long - term due to strong demand and tight supply, but may experience short - term corrections. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels [1]. - Aluminum prices may have room for correction, and it is advisable to gradually go long as the price drops, while paying attention to market sentiment [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or go short at high prices [5]. - Tin prices are expected to have greater price fluctuations. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous long positions and not to chase high prices, while continuously monitoring the recovery of downstream demand [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of March 27, the closing price of the main SHFE copper contract 05 dropped 1.03% to 81,560 yuan/ton. The US tariff measure on imported cars and parts is expected to suppress metal demand, causing the copper price to fall at night. The spread between Comex and LME has narrowed to around $1,400/ton. High copper prices have curbed downstream consumption, and the overall demand growth is limited. Although the long - term demand logic remains, short - term factors may lead to price corrections [1]. Aluminum - As of March 27, the closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract 05 rose 0.56% to 20,815 yuan/ton. The overall supply of ore is gradually improving, and the price is declining. Some alumina enterprises have cut production due to cost losses. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, and the demand side shows an increase in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. However, due to tariff policies, the aluminum price may still have room for correction [2][3]. Nickel - As of March 27, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel contract 05 dropped 0.05% to 130,030 yuan/ton. Macro factors increase the risk of stagflation in the US. Policy changes in the nickel ore market have an impact on prices, but the support may weaken. The supply of refined nickel remains high, and the downstream stainless steel market is weak, suppressing the upward movement of nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate widely [4][5]. Tin - As of March 27, the closing price of the main SHFE tin contract 05 rose 0.82% to 281,390 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin production decreased slightly in February, and the import of tin concentrates decreased year - on - year. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. However, the supply is expected to increase marginally, leading to greater price fluctuations [6]. Spot Transaction Summary - Copper: Spot copper market trading is inactive, with holders maintaining high prices, and terminal demand is mainly driven by rigid needs [7]. - Aluminum: The spot aluminum market has a lukewarm trading atmosphere, with holders selling actively at high prices, and downstream procurement being weak [8]. - Alumina: The demand for spot alumina at low prices has decreased, and downstream electrolytic aluminum manufacturers are cautious, resulting in low - level trading [9]. - Zinc: The spot zinc market has light trading, with holders insisting on high prices and downstream procurement being cautious [10][11]. - Lead: The spot lead market has relatively stable transactions, with downstream businesses purchasing according to needs [12][13]. - Nickel: The overall activity in the spot nickel market is low, with most participants remaining on the sidelines [14][15]. - Tin: The downstream of the spot tin market maintains rigid - need procurement [16]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE: Copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased, while lead and tin futures warehouse receipts increased [18]. - LME: Copper, lead, zinc, and aluminum inventories decreased, while tin and nickel inventories increased [18].