杭氧股份（002430）：气体利润拖累，稳健扩张延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.72 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.2% [1]. - The gas business's gross margin declined in the second half of 2024, primarily due to falling prices of retail gas and rare gases, but is expected to stabilize in 2025 as economic activities recover [2]. - The company signed six new gas investment projects in 2024, with a total oxygen production capacity of approximately 650,000 Nm³/h, and aims to expand its gas retail business significantly [3]. - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 1.06 billion yuan in 2025, 1.23 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.44 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 15.3%, 15.5%, and 17.0% respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, and a net profit of 0.25 billion yuan, down 32.3% [1]. Operational Analysis - The gross margin for gas sales was 18.4% in the first half of 2024 and dropped to 13.9% in the second half, influenced by price declines in retail gas and rare gases [2]. - As of March 27, 2024, the prices for liquid oxygen, nitrogen, and argon have increased by 31.2%, 14.7%, and 33.1% respectively from their recent lows [2]. Business Expansion - The company plans to issue convertible bonds worth up to 1.63 billion yuan to support its gas operations, which are expected to expand steadily [3]. - The cumulative order amount for air separation and petrochemical equipment reached 5.512 billion yuan in 2024, with 22 large and medium-sized air separation units signed, marking a historical high [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for the company are 1.06 billion yuan in 2025, 1.23 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.44 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 17, and 15 times [4].