西南期货早间评论-2025-03-28

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro data remains stable, but the market's confidence in macro - economic recovery is weak. More macro - support policies are expected to be gradually implemented. For different futures products, the market trends vary, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each product [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fixed - Income Products Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the market's confidence in economic recovery is weak. The upward logic of treasury bond futures is fully priced, and the downward movement requires economic recovery. It is expected that there will be no trend - like market in the future, with increased volatility, and caution is advised [5]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day witnessed a slight oscillation in stock index futures. The stable macro data helps reverse the market's pessimistic expectations. More macro - support policies will be implemented, and the market is expected to improve. Despite overseas trade uncertainties, the market has long - standing expectations. The current valuation of major indices is low, with room for improvement. It is still optimistic about the subsequent trend of stock indices, and it is advisable to consider buying stock index futures on dips [7][8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw an increase in the prices of gold and silver. The US GDP and PCE data were released, and the Fed paused rate cuts. The US announced tariffs on multiple countries, increasing market risk aversion. The long - term logic of precious metals remains strong, and it is recommended to hold existing long positions [10]. Base Metals Copper - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of copper. The Fed maintained the interest rate range, and the dollar index was revised upwards. The spot processing fee of copper concentrate decreased, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to decline. The traditional consumption season is coming, but high prices may affect the processing enterprises' production. The de - stocking speed of social inventory has slowed down. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing the rise [54][55]. Aluminum - The previous trading day saw a decline in the prices of aluminum and alumina. The supply of alumina is abundant, and the production of electrolytic aluminum has a small increase. The consumption season is coming, and the consumption end has rigid support. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has decreased. The price of alumina has limited upward space, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust [57]. Zinc - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of zinc. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is likely to rise, and the smelting profit has improved. The supply is expected to increase. The impact of environmental protection in the north has subsided, and the consumption has improved. The social inventory of refined zinc has decreased. The zinc price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [59]. Lead - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of lead. The processing fee of lead concentrate remained stable, and a large - scale primary lead smelter has a maintenance plan. The production of recycled lead will increase. The terminal consumption has no obvious change, and the traditional off - season is coming. The social inventory of electrolytic lead has increased. The lead price is under pressure [61]. Tin - The previous trading day saw an increase in the price of tin. The supply of tin ore is disturbed, and the processing fee is low. The raw material inventory of smelters has decreased, and the operating rate is lower than normal. The downstream orders are not as expected, and the high price has inhibited procurement. The domestic inventory has increased, and the overseas de - stocking has slowed down. The price is expected to oscillate [63]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of nickel. The news has increased the disturbance, and the cost is strongly supported. The downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and the demand is weak. The stainless - steel market has weak transactions, but the profit has recovered. The market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation, and the price has limited upward space [64]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open high and then decline. The CFTC data showed that fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of oil and gas rigs in the US increased. OPEC announced a new compensation - based production cut plan. The negotiation between the US and Russia ended without a joint statement, and the situation in Ukraine is complex. The OPEC production increase date is approaching, and the crude oil price is expected to face resistance and decline. It is advisable to take a short - position operation on the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil decline following crude oil. Asian merchants expect an increase in fuel oil supply from the Middle East and Africa, and more European fuel oil is flowing to Asia. The supply and demand fundamentals are loose, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is weak. The pressure on the high - sulfur fuel oil market will increase in the future. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to take a short - position operation on the main fuel oil contract [25][26]. Polyolefins - The previous trading day saw the polyethylene market price adjust, and the polypropylene futures oscillated within a range. The supply is expected to increase as new production capacity is released and previous maintenance devices restart. The social inventory is high, and the de - stocking speed is slow. The downstream demand recovers slowly, and the overall market is in a supply - demand imbalance. The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend this week. It is advisable to take a long - position operation on the PP and L main contracts [28][29]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of soybean meal and an increase in the price of soybean oil. The dollar weakened, and the market expects a decrease in the US soybean planting area in the 25/26 season. The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills decreased last week. The inventory of soybean meal continued to increase, and the inventory of soybean oil decreased. The consumption of soybean oil is expected to grow moderately, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to increase, and the price of soybean meal may face pressure in the short term. The soybean oil inventory has difficulty in de - stocking and may continue to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to wait and see, and consider a long - position attempt at the bottom - support range after the price decline [66][67]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day saw an increase in the price of palm oil. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil increased in January, and the export decreased. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in March. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a low level in the past 7 years. The catering consumption has increased. It is advisable to close short positions [68]. Cotton - The previous trading day saw domestic cotton oscillate weakly, and the overseas cotton price increased. The market is waiting for the new - year planting area report. The US cotton export sales decreased last week. The global cotton ending inventory was revised downwards. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the textile industry is in the peak season, but the demand is average. In the long - term, the overseas supply - demand is loose, and the domestic market lacks a strong upward drive. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling after the price rebound [73][74]. Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic sugar oscillate, and the overseas raw sugar price declined. The Indian sugar production decreased, which may limit its export. The Thai sugar production increased. The domestic new - year production increase is less than expected, and the import volume in the first quarter is estimated to be low. The supply pressure is not large. It is advisable to consider taking a long - position operation on dips [76][77]. Apple - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in the price of apple futures. The exchange cancelled a delivery warehouse in Shandong, which is beneficial for reducing the delivery pressure. The market is preparing for the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the apple inventory is low. The trading in the production area is good, and the price is strong. The delivery in the sales area has increased, and the goods - taking is good. It is advisable to consider taking a long - position operation on dips [78]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw the national average price of live pigs decline. The supply of large - scale farms is expected to increase slightly in March, and the consumption is in the off - season. The secondary fattening volume has decreased. The spot price is expected to have limited downward movement. The frozen - product storage has started, and the futures price has limited upward movement. It is advisable to try short - selling near the semi - annual line pressure [81][84]. Eggs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the average price of eggs in the main production areas and a flat price in the main sales areas. The cost of eggs is low, and the breeding profit is still in a loss. The inventory of laying hens has increased, and the supply is expected to continue to increase in March. The consumption is in the off - season, and the egg price has a risk of decline. It is advisable to sell deep - out - of - the - money put options and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the far - month contract on rallies [85][86]. Corn - The previous trading day saw a decline in the price of corn futures. The US southern corn planting has started in advance, and the market expects an increase in the US corn planting area in the 25/26 season. The domestic grain - selling progress is over 80%, and the port inventory is high. The corn storage is continuing, and the import of US corn is suspended. The demand for corn maintains a slight increase. The domestic corn supply surplus is expected to ease, and the price has a bottom - support. The import may increase in the future, and the short - term supply pressure still exists. It is advisable to wait and see [87][88]. Logs - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in the price of logs. The domestic radiation - pine log inventory has slightly adjusted. The price of radiation - pine logs is stable. The current inventory is relatively neutral, and the real estate is in the de - stocking cycle. It is necessary to be vigilant against a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [90][91].