宁证期货今日早评-2025-03-28

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel market's supply - demand fundamentals are improving with increased demand in the March construction season, slower supply expansion, and larger inventory declines. Steel prices are in a narrow - range adjustment [1]. - For crude oil, supply - side factors drive the market, and a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [1]. - The outlook for iron ore prices is cautiously optimistic due to improved market sentiment and demand, but limited fundamental improvement and supply constraints [3]. - For PTA, a buy - on - dips strategy is suggested, considering PX's expected price support and PTA's device maintenance and downstream demand [4]. - For live pigs, short - term long positions in near - month contracts and long - term long positions in LH2509 contracts are recommended, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging [5]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and a sell - on - rallies strategy is recommended [6]. - Treasury bonds may face a short - term rebound and a medium - term oscillation, and the stock - bond seesaw effect should be monitored [6]. - Precious metals are in an upward - trending oscillation due to increased risk - aversion sentiment [8]. - Methanol's 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a wait - and - see or short - term long - position strategy is recommended [8]. - Soda ash's 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended until it stabilizes [9]. 3. Summary by Product Steel - As of March 27, weekly thread production was 227.43 million tons, up 1.22 million tons (0.54%) from last week; factory inventory was 209.53 million tons, down 9.51 million tons (4.34%); social inventory was 609.58 million tons, down 8.38 million tons (1.36%); apparent demand was 245.32 million tons, up 2.33 million tons (0.96%) [1]. Crude Oil - The IEA predicts that global daily oil demand will increase by 830,000 barrels in 2024, less than the 2.1 million barrels per day increase in 2023. As of the week of March 22, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000 [1]. Iron Ore - From March 17 - 23, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 26.396 billion tons, a decrease of 3.554 billion tons from the previous period; at 45 ports, it was 25.106 billion tons, a decrease of 3.658 billion tons; at six northern ports, it was 12.407 billion tons, a decrease of 1.907 billion tons [3]. PTA - PXCFR is currently at $837 per ton, PX - N is $202 per ton; East China PTA is at 4,900 yuan per ton, and PTA's cash - flow cost is 4,741 yuan per ton. PTA's social inventory is 4.7576 billion tons, a decrease of 648,000 tons from the previous period; PTA's capacity utilization rate is 80.48%, and polyester's comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 91.24% [4]. Live Pigs - On March 27, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 119.11, up 0.01 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 120.17, up 0.02 points. As of 14:00, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 20.74 yuan per kilogram, a 1.0% decrease from the previous day [5]. Palm Oil - Indonesia's palm oil product exports in January were 1.96 million tons, down from 2.8 million tons in the same period last year and 2.06 million tons last month. Indonesia has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April to $961.54 per ton [6]. Treasury Bonds - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 910.99 billion yuan, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease [6]. Gold - Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars has led to opposition from multiple countries and regions, increasing risk - aversion sentiment [7][8]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,687 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan per ton; methanol's capacity utilization rate is 85.27%, a 0.79% weekly decrease; the 1 - million - ton/year coal - to - methanol device of Inner Mongolia Jiutai has completed maintenance this week; the total downstream capacity utilization rate is 75.47%, a 0.73% weekly decrease; China's methanol port sample inventory is 773,800 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons; the sample production enterprise inventory is 327,800 tons, a decrease of 17,600 tons; the sample enterprise's pending orders are 236,200 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash is 1,509 yuan per ton, with stable prices; weekly soda ash production is 690,200 tons, a 5.81% increase from the previous day; the maintenance of Jinshan and Jiangsu Jingshen has ended, and the equipment of Yantai and Qinghai Kunlun has been restored; the 1.1 - million - ton/year new production capacity of Lianyungang Alkali Industry is expected to be put into operation in the first quarter; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.63 million tons, a 3.42% decrease; the operating rate of float glass is 75.42%, a 0.34% weekly decrease; the average price of national float glass is 1,266 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 67.012 million heavy boxes, a 3.52% decrease [9].