商品期货早班车-2025-03-28

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies of various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. Different commodities have different market trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand situations and other factors [1][2][3][6][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - Copper: Market price declined significantly. Concerns about US tariffs and profit - taking led to the price drop. Supply of copper ore remains tight. Suggested to wait for a new buying point [1]. - Aluminum: The price of electrolytic aluminum may show a volatile and upward - biased trend as it enters the traditional consumption season and downstream demand recovers. Recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Alumina: Some producers are in cash - cost loss, and the number of maintenance cases is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Expected to be weak in the short - term. Consider shorting on rebounds and pay attention to the support level around 9500 yuan [1]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is still tight. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. Black Industries - Rebar: The spot demand is at a low level, and the futures valuation is high. Suggested to wait and see or short the 05 contract. Hold short positions in the 05 contract rebar - iron ore ratio [2]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand situation is marginally neutral, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains. The valuation is slightly high. Suggested to wait and see and hold short positions in the 05 contract rebar - iron ore ratio [2]. - Coking Coal: The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Short - term US soybeans are expected to be weak. The domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to have large arrivals, and the spot basis is weakening. The overall trend is weakening [3]. - Corn: Due to the pressure of grain sales, the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil is expected to be weak in the short - term and show a positive spread pattern. Pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [3]. - Sugar: Indian production may be lower than consumption, and domestic sugar prices are rising strongly. Suggested to short the 05 contract of Zhengzhou sugar lightly, conduct a 5 - 9 reverse spread, and sell call options [3]. - Cotton: The international cotton price has fluctuations, and the domestic cotton price is in a narrow - range shock. Pay attention to macro events and new - crop planting intentions [3]. - Logs: The price is under downward pressure but supported by housing construction demand. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the July delivery [3]. - Eggs: Supply is increasing, and demand is boosted by festivals, but high inventory may lead to weak prices. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. - Pigs: Second - fattening and frozen - product enterprises support the price, and the supply is postponed. The futures price is expected to be strong [5]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and weak. Suggested to short on rallies. In the long - term, short the far - month contracts on rallies as new devices are put into operation [6]. - PVC: The valuation is low, and the futures are at a large premium. Suggested to hedge at high points [6]. - Glass: The demand is seasonally recovering, but the sustainability is to be observed. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - PP: In the medium - term, short the profit spread on rallies. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and weak, and pay attention to new device production progress [6]. - Crude Oil: The price shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. Suggested to pay attention to the SC positive spread [7]. - Styrene: In the short - term, it follows the cost (pure benzene) and shows a positive spread. In the medium - term, there may be opportunities to buy on dips [7]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand is healthy but lacks obvious drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to continue to decline [7]. Shipping - European Line Container Shipping: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The freight rate center may rise as demand recovers. Recommended to buy the 06 contract on dips and conduct a 6 - 10 positive spread [8].