内外需求共振回落，二季度矿价弱势下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for iron ore is "Bearish" [6] Core Viewpoints - In Q2 2025, iron ore prices are expected to be weak due to the resonance decline of internal and external demand. The supply side is expected to have an excess of about 30 million tons under the assumption of a -1% domestic demand. The long - term supply side is mainly under bearish pressure, and the concentrated commissioning of mines from the end of 2025 to the first half of 2026 may cause the ore price to break through the current 90 - 100 US dollars oscillation range [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. 2025Q1 Supply - Demand Review: Peak at the Beginning, with Fundamentals Gradually Weakening - In Q1 2025, the supply - demand situation of iron ore started strongly. After the Spring Festival, the demand for plate products recovered early, and the hot metal increased slightly year - on - year. However, the supply side was affected by hurricanes, with a year - on - year decline of 10 million tons from January to February. The short - term supply - demand mismatch did not drive the ore price to rise continuously. The Platts Index reached a high of 109 US dollars at the end of February and then dropped sharply [2][11] - Since mid - February, after Vietnam officially launched an anti - dumping investigation on China's hot - rolled coils, the entire black series turned pessimistic. From January to March, the apparent demand growth rate of crude steel production was 1.6%. Under the consistent expectation of "domestic and foreign troubles" in demand, the market started to decline ahead of schedule since March [2][11] - Since Q4 2024, the positive elasticity of demand (hot metal) improvement on iron ore prices has been significantly weakened. The ore price has been oscillating between 90 - 110 US dollars, and the bearish pattern continues but lacks the power to break through [11] 2. Supply: Few Variables This Year, and the Flexible Adjustment of the Supply Side Weakens Fundamental Contradictions - After the hurricane season in Q1, the iron ore supply side returned to calm. According to the existing mine shipping plans, it is expected that the incremental supply of iron ore in transit in 2025 will be 20 million tons. Under the assumption of a -1% domestic demand, the supply - demand surplus will be about 30 million tons. In the long run, the supply side of iron ore is still mainly under bearish pressure. The concentrated commissioning time of mines is from the end of 2025 to the first half of 2026, which may cause the ore price to break through the current 90 - 100 US dollars oscillation range [3][19] - Potential incremental supply at the end of 2025 includes: the first - phase 60 million - ton project of Simandou is expected to ship the first batch of ore by the end of 2025 and start commercial operation in mid - 2026; the restart of domestic mines in Shanxi's Daixian County, with an annual production capacity of about 20 million tons, but the progress is unclear; the resumption of production in Goa, India, which is expected to increase India's iron ore production by about 10 million tons per year, and the probability of on - schedule implementation is relatively high [20] 3. Demand: Synchronous Weakening at Home and Abroad, and May Significantly Decline in Q2 - Since 2025, the factors of demand deterioration that the market has worried about have been gradually verified. Domestically, the infrastructure demand in Q1 failed to effectively support the market. Considering that policy windows such as the Two Sessions have passed, it is difficult for the physical volume of infrastructure projects in Q2 to improve significantly. The next policy expectation window will be in July [4][33] - Abroad, after the implementation of Vietnam's anti - dumping tariffs, the external market may have shifted from "rushing for exports" to "pausing and waiting", and there is even a possibility of "potential recession - driven demand contraction". The negative impact of tariffs on direct and indirect exports is certain, but the magnitude and rhythm are not clear. Attention should be paid to the downstream order - receiving situation after April [4][44] - Since the official start of tariff frictions in January, steel prices in Europe and the United States have strengthened, while those in traditional steel - exporting countries such as China, Vietnam, and Turkey have weakened. The total demand is also weak. From January to February, the global crude steel production decreased by 2% year - on - year, and the hot metal production decreased by 1% year - on - year. Excluding China, the global crude steel production decreased by 3% from January to February, and the hot metal production decreased by 2.6% year - on - year [48] 4. Oscillating Weakly in Q2, but Difficult to Break Through the Range - The concerns about future demand weakening expressed in the futures market since February are expected to gradually become a reality. However, due to the large changes in tariff policies, the actual impact intensity and rhythm are variable. The overall price center will move down periodically, but the decline lacks smoothness [55] - If the annual demand decline rate is within 5%, the cost line of about 90 US dollars on the supply side still has strong support. After the second half of 2025, the commissioning speed of multiple new production capacities at home and abroad needs to be observed, which may affect the ore price center in 2026 [55]