卡塔尔财政乘数估算：卡塔尔（英）2025

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The strong capital spending multiplier in Qatar has diminished as the capital stock has increased, indicating a declining marginal impact of capital spending [5][38] - The report supports Qatar's strategy to transition to a private sector-led growth model, emphasizing the importance of human capital development and broader reforms under the Third National Development Strategy [5][10][40] Summary by Sections Introduction - Qatar's state spending has significantly contributed to the development of its LNG production capacity and infrastructure, driving economic growth and diversification [8] - Major infrastructure projects, including those for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, have been pivotal in boosting the non-hydrocarbon sector's growth over the past decade [8] Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: A GCC Panel Approach - The analysis indicates a strong correlation between government spending and non-hydrocarbon output growth in the GCC, with Qatar showing the most significant correlation [20][21] - The fiscal multiplier for capital spending is estimated to be around 0.9 in the long term, while current spending has a lower multiplier effect [25][27] Estimating Fiscal Multiplier: A Single Country Approach (Qatar) - Recent analyses show that the growth effects of capital spending in Qatar have waned as the infrastructure investment cycle matures, particularly following the World Cup-related investments [36] - The estimated long-run fiscal multiplier for Qatar is close to 1.5 when capital stock levels are not considered, but becomes insignificant when capital stock is high [33] Conclusions and Policy Implications - The report suggests reallocating public spending towards education and human capital development to enhance economic growth, while also focusing on climate sustainability and promoting a knowledge-based economy [39][40] - Efficient public spending is crucial for crowding in private sector investment and facilitating economic diversification [40]