Joyoung(002242) 华泰证券·2025-03-28 03:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 11.61 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.849 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 7.94% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 122 million RMB, down 68.55% year-on-year [1][5]. - The report anticipates a potential recovery in 2025, driven by domestic consumption stimulus policies, which may lead to a decrease in expense ratios and an increase in profit elasticity [1][5]. - The company is expected to face challenges in external sales in 2025, while domestic sales may remain stable due to supportive consumption policies [2][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's domestic sales for 2024 are projected at 7.237 billion RMB, a decline of 1.86% year-on-year, while overseas sales are expected to be 1.612 billion RMB, down 27.97% year-on-year [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 is reported at 25.50%, with a slight increase of 0.66 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for overseas sales is 6.24%, down 2.36 percentage points [3]. Expenses and Financial Performance - The total expense ratio for 2024 increased by 3.06 percentage points, primarily due to heightened marketing efforts to stimulate demand [4]. - The report indicates a significant fair value loss of 113 million RMB in 2024, which adversely affected profits [4]. Future Projections - For 2025, the expected net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 329 million RMB, reflecting a substantial increase of 169.26% year-on-year [7][20]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 at 0.43 RMB, with a potential for profit elasticity due to a low base effect [5][20].