4月债市调研问卷点评：投资者更偏好短债

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Standing at the end of March and looking forward to April, investors are significantly more optimistic about the short - end than the long - end, and their attention to credit products has increased month - on - month. The inclination to increase positions has decreased marginally compared to last month [1][10]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of March, there are four mainstream expectations for the April bond market: investors are more optimistic about the short - end than the long - end and their attention to credit products has increased; the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has decreased marginally compared to last month, with the mainstream view being that a reserve requirement ratio cut will occur in the second quarter and an interest rate cut will happen in the second half of the year; most investors' judgments on the operating ranges of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields are relatively neutral and do not deviate from the March ranges, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile; in terms of operations, most investors' ideas are neutral, and the intention to increase positions has decreased marginally compared to last month [1][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Investor Preference for Short - Term Bonds - A bond market survey questionnaire was released on March 26, 2025, and 568 valid questionnaires were received by 9 p.m. that night, covering various institutional and individual investors [8]. 2. Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields - For the 10 - year Treasury bond yield in April, most investors think the lower limit is concentrated in 1.70% - 1.75% (inclusive) and 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive), accounting for 37% and 34% respectively. The upper limit is mainly considered to be 1.85% - 1.90% (inclusive) by 33% of investors and 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive) by 22% of investors. The judgment on the operating range is similar to the 1.70% - 1.90% range in March [11]. - For the 30 - year Treasury bond yield in April, 42% of investors think the lower limit is 1.90% - 1.95% (inclusive), and 33% think it is 1.95% - 2.0% (inclusive). 43% of investors think the upper limit is 2.00% - 2.10% (inclusive), and 32% think it is 2.10% - 2.20% (inclusive). The judgment is mainly range - bound, with the upper limit rising 5bp from the March high and the lower limit not lower than the March low [12]. 3. Expectations for the Second - Quarter Economic Trend - Investors have significant differences in their views on the second - quarter economic trend. 30% think it will be "year - on - year recovery, quarter - on - quarter weaker than the seasonal level", 27% think it will be "both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter decline", 26% think it will be "year - on - year recovery, quarter - on - quarter flat with the seasonal level", and 17% think it will be "year - on - year recovery, quarter - on - quarter exceeding the seasonal level". Overall, the views are conservative and there are few optimists [13][16]. 4. Expectations for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - Regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts, 39% of investors think it will happen in April, and 38% think it will be in May - June. Regarding interest rate cuts, 44% of investors think it will be in the third quarter, 22% think it will be in May - June, and 20% think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025. Compared with last month, the expectation of interest rate cuts has further decreased [18][19]. 5. Impact of MLF Innovative Renewal on the Bond Market - 45% of investors think it can be regarded as a structural interest rate cut, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended; 30% think it can be regarded as a structural interest rate cut, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue; 19% think it is not a structural interest rate cut, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. Investors generally think it can be regarded as a structural interest rate cut [20]. 6. Expectations for the April Bond Market Trend - 25% of investors think the interest rate curve will strengthen overall and be bull - steep in April, 22% think it will strengthen overall and be bull - flat, and 21% think the short - end will be strong and the long - end will be weak. Optimists about the market are in the majority, and the optimism about the short - end is higher [22]. 7. Bond Market Operation Strategies - 36% of investors think they should keep the positions basically stable; 31% think they should hold cash and wait to add positions after the market corrects to the expected level; 17% think they can start to add positions; 17% think they should take appropriate profits and reduce positions. Compared with the end of February, the inclination to add positions has decreased marginally [26]. 8. Preferred Bond Varieties in April - 18% and 16% of investors think the opportunities for medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit are relatively certain. 12% and 11% are more optimistic about medium - low - grade urban investment bonds and long - term interest - rate bonds. About 9% prefer local government bonds and high - grade urban investment bonds. Investors have a higher preference for interest - rate products and a marginal increase in the preference for credit products compared to last month, and a higher preference for short - term varieties [30]. 9. Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in April - 34% of investors think the central bank's monetary policy attitude and the capital market trend are the main pricing logics for the bond market in April. 19% and 16% think fundamental data such as real estate and PMI and the performance of the equity market are the main pricing logics. The central bank's monetary policy attitude and the capital market trend are still the most concerned factors, and the attention to domestic fundamentals and government bond issuance has increased marginally [32].