贵金属日报：强势上涨-2025-03-28

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals is likely to be bullish, with strong weekly and monthly trends, and the short - term is also bullish. Traders should hold existing long positions. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations and market games in the week before the implementation of the US tariff policy on April 2nd. The strong support for London gold is at 2950, and the resistance is at 3100. The support for London silver is at 32.7, and the resistance is at 35 [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Thursday, precious metal prices closed strongly higher. The US dollar index declined, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fluctuated, crude oil and Bitcoin oscillated, and European and American stocks generally fell. The South China Non - ferrous Metals Index declined. The US tariff policy cast a shadow over the US economic outlook, and its stance on Russia is expected to boost European gold investment demand. COMEX gold 2506 contract closed at $3099.2 per ounce, up 1.54%; US silver 2505 contract closed at $35.32 per ounce, up 3.21%. SHFE gold 2506 main contract closed at 710.3 yuan per gram, up 0.29%; SHFE silver 2506 contract closed at 8372 yuan per kilogram, up 0.25% [2]. 2. Interest Rate Hike Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged on May 8, 2025, is 87.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 12.2%. By June 19, the probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged is 35.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 7.3%. By July 31, the probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged is 20.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 48%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 28.4%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 0.29 tons to 929.65 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 34 tons to 13916.4 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1155.4 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 16.8 tons to 1678.5 tons in the week ending March 21 [3][4]. 3. This Week's Focus - Recently, the first batch of gold transactions in the insurance industry was completed. PICC Property and Casualty completed the first gold auction transaction of domestic insurance institutions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, China Life completed the first gold inquiry transaction, Ping An Life completed the first Shanghai Gold pricing transaction, and CPIC Life completed the first large - scale spot gold transaction. This indicates that in addition to the strong global central bank purchases and ETF investment demand, the gold investment demand of the Chinese insurance industry is expected to increase significantly. This week, the main data to focus on is the US PCE data on Friday evening [4]. 4. Precious Metal Price and Inventory Data - Precious Metal Futures and Spot Price Table: SHFE gold main contract is at 710.3 yuan per gram, up 0.18%; SGX gold TD is at 708.98 yuan per gram, up 0.22%; CME gold main contract is at $3099.2 per ounce, up 2.4%; SHFE silver main contract is at 8372 yuan per kilogram, up 0.07%; SGX silver TD is at 8348 yuan per kilogram, up 0.17%; CME silver main contract is at $35.32 per ounce, up 3.24%; SHFE - TD gold is at 1.32 yuan per gram, down 18.52%; SHFE - TD silver is at 24 yuan per kilogram, down 6.67%; CME gold - silver ratio is 87.7463, down 0.82% [6]. - Inventory and Position Table: SHFE gold inventory is 15675 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1342.6856 tons, up 0.54%; SHFE gold position is 211040 lots, unchanged; SPDR gold position is 929.65 tons, up 0.03%; SHFE silver inventory is 1155.352 tons, down 0.29%; CME silver inventory is 14570.3503 tons, up 0.28%; SGX silver inventory is 1678.545 tons, down 0.99%; SHFE silver position is 444809 lots, unchanged; SLV silver position is 13916.386431 tons, down 0.24% [10]. 5. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview - The US dollar index is at 104.2745, down 0.39%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.2794, up 0.19%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 42454.79 points, down 0.31%; WTI crude oil spot is at $69.92 per barrel, up 0.39%; LmeS copper 03 is at $9907 per ton, down 1.86%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.35%, up 0.93%; the 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.99%, up 0.51%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.37%, up 5.71% [15].