南华原木产业周报 ——估值有上修的驱动 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 联系邮箱：songjipeng@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月7日 原木数据纵览 | 类别 | 指标 | 更新日期 | 数值 | 环差 | 同比 | 频率 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 辐射松进口量 | 2025-12-31 | 129 | -44 | -12.2% | 月 | 万m³ | | 库存 | 港口库存（中国） | 2026-01-30 | 242 | -7 | -20.1% | 周 | 万m³ | | | 港口库存（山东） | 2026-01-30 | 1771000 | -117000 | 10.9% | 周 | m³ | | | 港口库存（江苏） | 2026-01-30 | 407604 | 77917 | -61.3% | 周 | m³ | | 需求 | 原木港口日均出库量 | 2026-01-30 | 6.17 | -0.01 | 193.8% | 周 | ...

周甫翰 （投资咨询资格证号：Z0020173） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月6日 【核心矛盾】 整体产业链矛盾不大，铁矿石供应上有压力，但整体市场风险偏好走弱，流动性不佳，价格下挫。操作上节 前谨慎观望。 【利多因素】 【利空因素】 1. 铁矿石发运整体中性偏高，整体现货不缺 2.库存继续累库，港口库存近1.8亿吨，累库速度超往年 3.政策有松动迹象，若谈判落地，则现货释放量大 4.市场风险偏好急速下降，流动性不佳 目前整体铁矿石供需双弱，淡季特征明显。 发运端，铁矿石发运季节性走低，发运与往年相比有边际回落。此外需要关注季风对澳洲发运的影响。目前 南半球进入雨季，发运扰动可能增加。 需求端，钢厂利润尚可，铁水预计稳步回升。终端钢材进入节前淡季，库存季节性累积，但累库速度不及往 年。五大材总库存尚在可控范围，预计未来仍有一定的增产空间。热卷出口利润有显著回升，预计后期需求 有所支撑。 库存端，铁矿石港口库存继续持续累积。虽然钢厂进行了节前补库，钢厂补库接近尾声，但港口库存在此基 础上继续超季节性累库，因此库存压力仍较大。 整体产业链矛盾不大，铁矿石供应上有压力，但整体市场风 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomics - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England maintained their benchmark interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its three key interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, while the BoE's decision, with four out of nine policymakers voting for a 25 - basis - point cut, signaled a dovish stance [1]. - The UK's GDP growth forecast was downgraded to 0.9%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.3%, indicating weak domestic demand. The visit of UK's Starmer to China is seen as a practical choice to break through growth bottlenecks [2]. - The US 12 - month JOLTS job openings reached a new low since September 2020, and the US Challenger job cuts in January hit a record high for the same period since 2009, surging 205% month - on - month [4][5]. Group 2: Exchange Rates - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate showed a trend of first depreciation and then appreciation. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9408 at 16:30, down 32 basis points, and the night - session closed at 6.9363. The central parity rate was set at 6.9570, down 37 basis points [3]. - Due to weak US employment data and AI - related panic, the market's risk - aversion demand increased, supporting the US dollar index. The RMB's appreciation momentum may decline after the holiday as seasonal settlement demand weakens [3]. - Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures - The stock index fell collectively, with the large - cap index relatively more resilient. The trading volume in the two markets dropped to around 2.1 trillion yuan. The short - term stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with the large - cap index outperforming, but the adjustment range is limited [4][5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The open - market operation injected cross - festival funds, and the money market was stable. The yield of spot bonds declined across the board. The bond market may gain upward momentum as the A - share market is likely to adjust [5][6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (European Routes) - The main contract EC2604 of container shipping on European routes fluctuated widely. The market's core contradiction lies in the game between geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. Short - term, it will maintain a volatile pattern with limited upside [6][7][8]. - It is recommended to shift long positions on the medium - term during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high levels. Short - term, consider shorting lightly at high levels [6][8]. Group 6: New Energy (Carbonate Lithium and Industrial Silicon) - Carbonate lithium futures prices fell, with a daily decline of 9.81%. The trading volume increased by 70.48%, and the open interest decreased by 30,100 lots. It is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival to avoid risks [9]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. They are expected to trade in a narrow range, with industrial silicon between 8300 - 9100 and polysilicon between 48000 - 52000 [10][11][13]. Group 7: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fell. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to replenish inventory when prices decline. The copper market is affected by factors such as inventory changes and holiday - related demand [15][16][20]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate, with support at 23000 - 23500. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a long - term weakening trend. Cast aluminum alloy prices are also expected to oscillate [21][22][23]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the future. Nickel - stainless steel prices are affected by the broader market and are expected to be weak and volatile. Tin prices are likely to follow the sector in wide - range adjustments [23][24][26]. - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lacking upward drivers before the Spring Festival [26][27]. Group 8: Oils and Fats, and Feeds - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is strong. Domestic soybean meal is expected to rebound in the short - term, and rapeseed meal is difficult to have an independent upward trend. It is recommended to participate in long positions in spreads and single - side trades lightly [28]. - For oils, the short - term is expected to be in a consolidation phase. The overall situation in the first quarter is still supported, and short - selling is not recommended [29]. Group 9: Energy and Oil & Gas - Fuel oil is in a weak operation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly in the bunkering market. The long - term high - sulfur cracking trend is downward [31]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable. The inventory decline provides a slight boost [31][32]. - Asphalt prices are struggling to rise. The short - term is expected to be in a volatile state, with limited upside and downside [32][33][34]. Group 10: Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium prices in NYMEX retreated significantly. The short - term "tightening trade" does not change the long - term "loosening trend." Attention should be paid to position control [34][35][36]. - Gold and silver prices fell under pressure. In the short - term, they are weak and may continue to decline. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36][37][38]. Group 11: Chemicals - Pulp and offset paper futures prices rebounded from lows. It is recommended to hold short positions in pulp futures and consider short - term long positions in offset paper futures [39][40]. - LPG prices are affected by the US - Iran negotiation. Attention should be paid to the negotiation results [40][41][42]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be bought on dips. The processing fee of PTA is expected to narrow [43][44][45]. - MEG - bottle chips are weakly volatile. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound state [45][46]. - Methanol is recommended to be observed on the long - side. 3 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads can be shorted, and the MTO spread can be widened [46][47][48]. - Plastics and PP are weakly volatile. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand recovery [48][49]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical and demand factors [49][50][52]. - Rubber prices are supported at the bottom. It is recommended to be lightly - positioned before the long holiday and consider option strategies [53][57][81]. - Urea prices are expected to correct in the short - term. It is recommended to exit long positions [57][58]. - Glass and soda ash are weakly volatile. Soda ash is in an oscillating state, and glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [58][59][60]. - Propylene is affected by cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to risks [60][61]. Group 12: Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a state of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weakly volatile. The price range of rebar 2605 is expected to be between 3050 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils 2605 is between 3200 - 3350 [62]. - Iron ore is in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the Spring Festival [63][64]. - Coking coal and coke prices fell. The short - term rebound has limited sustainability [64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top. The price range of ferrosilicon 05 is between 5400 - 5900, and that of ferromanganese 05 is between 5700 - 6100 [65][66][67]. Group 13: Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hog prices are in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to observe before clear demand signals and consider spread strategies [69]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong but are restricted by the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips [70][71][72]. - Sugar prices are expected to have limited upward space, with pressure at the 60 - day moving average [72][73]. - Egg prices fell below the previous low. It is recommended to sell call options on JD2603 - C - 3100 [74]. - Apple prices are likely to be strong. The consumption peak is coming to an end, but the delivery contradiction provides support [81][82][83]. - Red date prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the short - term and face pressure in the long - term [84][85]. - Log prices may rise. It is recommended to try long positions on dips and sell put options [86][87].

南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年02月05日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货价格区间 品种 价格区间预测 当前波动率（20日滚动） 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） 碳酸锂主力合约 支撑位：120000 117.4% 96.8% source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 50000 100000 150000 200000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

【核心逻辑】美国公布的经济数据好坏不一，服务业 PMI 表现强劲，但 ADP 就业数据偏弱。 美元指数小幅上涨，整体仍在 97.5 附近震荡，在缺少更多利好基本面支撑的情况下，暂时 缺乏进一步上行动力。后续需重点关注美国再度推迟的非农等关键就业数据。受美元指数 金融期货早评 宏观：美国 1 月 ADP 就业人数不及预期 【市场资讯】1）央行部署 2026 年信贷市场重点工作，要求不断加强对重大战略、重点领 域和薄弱环节的优质金融服务，强化消费领域金融支持。着力支持扩大内需、科技创新、 中小微企业等重点领域。2）美国劳工统计局宣布，将于 2 月 11 日（下周三）发布 1 月非 农就业报告，将于 2 月 5 日（本周四）发布职位空缺数据，重新安排 2 月 13 日发布 1 月 CPI 通胀报告。3）美联储宣布，在 2026 年的压力测试周期中将不会调整大型银行的资本 水平，目前正考虑对这项年度测试进行多项改革以提升透明度。4）美国 1 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数小幅回落至 53.8，但好于市场预期。5）美国 1 月 ADP 新增就业岗位 2.2 万个，远 低于市场预期 4.8 万人，前值由 4.1 万下修 ...

南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年02月04日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货价格区间 品种 价格区间预测 当前波动率（20日滚动） 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） 碳酸锂主力合约 强支撑位：130000 111.7% 96.6% source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期货主力合约 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 50000 100000 150000 200000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

金融期货早评 宏观："十五五"首个中央一号文件公布 【市场资讯】1）美国总统特朗普签署政府拨款法案，结束政府部分"停摆"。2）美联储理 事米兰表示，美联储今年需要降息不止 100 个基点，很期待凯文·沃什担任美联储主席后的 表现。不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在通胀尚未完全回落至目标之前，货币政策仍需 保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的稳定。3）澳洲联储宣布加息 25 个基点至 3.85%，为 2023 年以来的首次加息，成为 2026 年首个加息的主要发达经济体央行。4）一位白宫官员表示， 美联储理事米兰已辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主席一职。5）中央一号文件《中共中央国务院 关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》发布。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】2 月市场迎来关键变量，美联储主席提名人选的鹰派立场引发降 息延后预期，叠加英国经济韧性显现，英央行 5 月前降息概率显著下降，但该流动性调整 仅为短期预期修正，欧美货币宽松的宏观背景未变。从产业与政策维度看：战略矿产与新 能源产业链，受美国关键矿产储备政策、中国供给侧管控双重支撑，铜、稀土及碳酸锂、 多晶硅等新能源标的供需缺口长期存在；人工智能产业在政策与技术驱动下 ...

南华商品指数：有色板块领涨，贵金属板块下跌 王怡琳 2026-02-03 16:56:48 翼色板块部分品种产业链示意图·单品种指数当日涨跌幅 + 0.00% 煤炭 4.40% 农产品板块部分品种产业链示意图·单品种指数当日涨跌幅 棕榈油 0.89% -0.20% -0.20% 菜籽油 0.86% > -0.07% → 油菜籽 0.54% 索材箱 －1.19% 玉米 0.44% - + 0.00% 注: (1) 文中的涨跌幅为(今日收盘价)与昨日收盘价)与昨日收盘价的比值: 文中的贡献度为深跌幅和权重的乘积; (2) 南华商品指数剧除了商品合的换月时的价差，反映了投资商品那统的真实收主。 (3) 文中所使用的贡献度计算方法为：某品种当日涨跌幅/ Σ!各品种当日涨跌幅/，黄色数据条代表品种当日上涨，蓝色数据条代表品种当日下跌 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数上涨0.93%。板块指数中，只有南华贵金属指数，下 跌-0.36%，其余板块均是上涨，涨幅最大的板块是南华有色金属指数，涨幅为4.38%，涨幅最小的板块是南华农产 品指数，涨幅为0.08%。 主题指数中，只有油脂油料指数，下跌-0.01%， ...

. 南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年02月03日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货价格区间 品种 价格区间预测 当前波动率（20日滚动） 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） 碳酸锂主力合约 强支撑位：130000 112.1% 96.6% source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 50000 100000 150000 200000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

南华浩淞天然橡胶期货气象分析报告 ——除印尼产区外，其他产区降雨偏少 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月3日 一、本周重要气象提示 中长期 气候动态 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO） ：目前Nino3.4指数-0.4（+0.1），弱拉尼娜现象持续，根据 NOAA预测，目前弱拉尼娜现象（-0.9~-0.5）或持续到 2026 年 2 月，并逐渐过渡到 ENSO 中 性，有45%以上概率在6-8月期间转为弱厄尔尼诺现象，产区天气扰动或加剧（厄尔尼诺有概率 会减少西太平洋周边产区雨水，提高干旱风险）。 印度洋偶极子（IOD）： DMI指数为−0.52，印度洋偶极子环比上周进一步减弱，对印尼周边降 雨影响降低。 马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）： 马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）目前于第一阶段区域，预计将在2月中旬 向第三阶段发展，并影响印度洋东岸区域（印尼周边）。 中国 产区 云南产区：云南产区停割，1月降水低于同期水平，土壤湿度正常。近期云南维持偏低气温，西 双版纳最低气温在10℃左右，临沧、普洱 ...