碳酸锂日评：国内碳酸锂3月供给预期偏松，三元材料厂库存量较上周增加-2025-03-28

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic traditional consumption seasons lead to optimistic downstream demand expectations, but due to the expected tariffs imposed by Europe and the US on Chinese battery products and energy storage systems, the supply - demand outlook for domestic lithium carbonate in March is balanced. The price of lithium carbonate is likely to be volatile and difficult to rise significantly. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 68,000 - 72,000 and the resistance level around 75,000 - 78,000 [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - On March 18, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 75,160 yuan/ton, 75,400 yuan/ton, 75,700 yuan/ton, and 75,400 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 134,587 lots, a decrease of 2,430 lots, and the open interest was 256,955 lots, an increase of 2,344 lots. The inventory was 36,135 tons, an increase of 328 tons [1] - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 73,100 yuan/ton, also an increase of 150 yuan/ton [1] Company News - Core Lithium Ltd completed the second - quarter project in 2025, terminated the last operating contract, and obtained 100% ownership of all infrastructure, reducing current and future operating costs [1] - A new energy company in Luoyang achieved stable production of its alumina - pure lithium carbonate project, with an expected annual output of 500 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate. The project plans to invest 5.18 billion yuan, with a designed annual production capacity of 8,000 tons of alumina - pure lithium carbonate [2] - Tianqi Lithium adjusted its future lithium salt capacity plan. It currently has a chemical product capacity of about 91,600 tons/year, and the total planned capacity after completion of announced projects will be 120,600 tons/year. Its under - construction production lines include a 37,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang and a 1,000 - ton metal lithium project in Chongqing [2] - Tianqi Lithium's subsidiary Talison operates the Greenbushes lithium mine. The total output of lithium concentrate is about 100,000 tons/year currently, and it is expected to reach 2.14 million tons/year after the completion of the chemical - grade No. 3 plant [3] - Zheneng Technology's semi - solid battery products have achieved large - scale shipments. The second - generation semi - solid battery is expected to be mass - produced in 2025 and may be commercialized in high - tech fields [3] Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes 30,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic lithium concentrate and an increase in production and imports in March. The operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate production decreased last week, but the production in March may increase, and the supply is expected to be loose [4] - Albemarle's Chengdu salt production line will be inspected before June 2025. Zijin Lithium's 25,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project will be completed and put into production in December 2025. The cash production cost of some lithium carbonate production methods is negative, while others are positive [4] - The import window is closed. The first - phase 10,000 - ton lithium chloride capacity of Weifeng Lithium's Mariana salt lake project in Argentina was officially put into production in February, which may increase China's monthly lithium carbonate imports. The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate is negative, leading to an increase in the inventory of Guangzhou Futures Exchange and social inventories [4] - The cash production cost of lithium hydroxide is positive for some enterprises. Hainan Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium hydroxide smelting capacity will be put into production in January, and Yahua Group plans to build a 77,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line by the end of 2025. Most enterprises have resumed normal production, increasing the production of lithium hydroxide [4] Demand Side - The average monthly production cost of phosphoric acid iron is 11,000 - 19,000 yuan/ton. The production and inventory of phosphoric acid iron in March may increase. The average monthly production cost of lithium iron phosphate is 24,200 yuan/ton. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate factories has increased, and the production of some large - scale factories has increased, while some small and medium - sized factories may stop production [5] - The production and imports of some precursors may increase in March. The processing fees of ternary precursors and ternary materials have decreased, and the production profits of some products are negative. The production of six - fluorophosphate lithium may increase, and the exports may also increase [6] - The production, shipment, and inventory of energy - storage cells, power cells, and lithium batteries in March may increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in March may also increase [6] Trading Strategy - Due to the expected supply - demand balance of domestic lithium carbonate in March, it is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the support level around 68,000 - 72,000 and the resistance level around 75,000 - 78,000 [6]