新兴市场研究专题：图解中企在济世：伊斯兰国家土耳其的市场机遇

Economic Overview - Turkey's GDP composition in 2023: Agriculture 6.2%, Industry 28.4%, Services 54.1%[2] - Per capita GDP increased from $3,608 in 2002 to $13,243 in 2023, a 3.7-fold rise[2] - Turkey's GDP growth stabilized above 5% post-2021, ranking as the 11th largest economy globally and the 4th in Europe[2] Economic Challenges - Turkey's industrial value added is relatively low compared to other emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia, with declining growth rates in both industrial and service sectors since 2024[2][3] - The country has been in a trade deficit, negatively impacting GDP growth, with net exports dragging down economic performance[3][23] - High inflation and reliance on energy imports have weakened Turkey's export competitiveness, prompting some foreign investments to shift to lower-cost countries like Egypt[3][23] Financial Vulnerabilities - Turkey's economy is highly sensitive to international capital flows, exacerbated by a dual deficit in trade and fiscal accounts, particularly under the pressure of the US interest rate hike cycle[4][28] - The Turkish lira is one of the most vulnerable currencies among emerging markets, with significant external debt repayment pressures due to rising dollar rates[4][28] Geopolitical Risks - Deteriorating US-Turkey relations post-2016 coup attempt have led to economic sanctions and heightened market volatility, exemplified by a 20% drop in the lira following US tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum[5][42] - Turkey's strategic geopolitical position as a NATO member in the Middle East complicates its foreign relations, particularly with the US and regional powers like Russia and Iran[6][48] Policy Responses - Turkey has shifted back to conventional monetary policy, raising interest rates from 8.5% in 2023 to 50% by the end of 2024 to combat inflation and stabilize the currency[39][40] - The government faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with stimulating domestic demand, leading to a complex policy environment[4][30]