贵金属日评：欧盟加拿大暗示报复汽车关税，美上修四季度GDP增速但下修PCE-2025-03-28

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Due to the Fed's expected interest rate cuts, mild European fiscal easing expectations, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, and uncertain geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Data: On March 27, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold was 708.98 yuan/gram, with a change of 2.90 yuan compared to the previous day; the trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 22,506.00, a decrease of 8,184.00 compared to the previous day. For COMEX futures active contracts, the closing price was 3,057.50, with a change of 11.60 compared to March 19, 2025; the trading volume was 123,043.00, a decrease of 43,210.00 compared to the previous day. The London gold spot price was 3,056.55 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 43.30 compared to the previous day [1] - Important Information: The EU and Canada hinted at retaliating against auto tariffs, and Trump warned that if they joined forces against the US, tariffs would be "far higher" than the current plan. The annualized quarterly环比 growth rate of the US GDP in the fourth quarter was finally revised up to 2.4%, exceeding expectations, while the core PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, was revised down to 2.6% [1] Silver - Market Data: On March 27, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai silver was 8,334.00 yuan/kg, with a change of 14.00 compared to the previous day; the trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T+D was -175,602.00, a decrease of 450,664.00 compared to the previous day. For COMEX futures active contracts, the closing price was 35.32, with a change of 0.90 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 34,382.00, an increase of 4,954.00 compared to the previous day [1] - Important Information: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill, but the issue of the federal government's debt ceiling remains unresolved. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be exhausted as early as August - September, which may slow down the Fed's reduction of its balance sheet. The annual inflation rate of the US CPI in February was 2.8%, lower than expected and the previous value, but due to the strong performance of the US economic hard data, the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates has been reduced to June and September, which may cause the US dollar index to gradually bottom out [1] Macroeconomic and Other Information - Interest Rates: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.5%. The Bank of England kept its key interest rate at 4.5% in March and continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, bringing the policy rate to 0.5% [1] - Stock Indices: On March 27, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3,373.7489, up 8.92 from the previous day; the S&P 500 was 5,693.3100, down 18.89 from the previous day [1] - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 104.2597, down 0.30 from the previous day; the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1763, with no change from the previous day [1]