煤价阴跌寻底，观察供应端减量弹性

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for thermal coal is "Bearish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Since 2025, coal prices have been in a continuous decline, and the bottom is yet to be reached. The annual coal price may find strong support around the cost line of imported coal from Indonesia at 650 yuan/ton, with the bottom expected to appear in the middle of the year and remain low throughout the year [2][10] - The current decline in coal prices is a "real test of the coal mine cost line." When coal prices fall to the full cost line, coal mines may have a strong demand to actively reduce production to protect profits [2][14] - Under the continuous inversion of prices, the volume of imported coal may start to shrink, and in 2025, it may turn negative for the first time. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of Indonesia's policy on coal prices [3][29] - The growth rate of thermal power demand has declined, and the performance of non - power sectors continues to diverge. The overall coal demand is expected to maintain a 0.5% growth rate, and the supply - demand pressure will continue [4] - Before large - scale and continuous production cuts occur, the coal supply - demand side will remain weak and continue to seek the bottom. Policy is the biggest driver for price rebound, and potential supply - side production cuts and import policy changes should be watched out for [65] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Coal Price Decline and Bottom - Seeking - Since 2025, coal prices have fallen as expected, with the decline and smoothness exceeding market expectations. The price of 5500K coal at ports dropped from 770 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 685 yuan/ton in mid - March. The 700 - yuan/ton mark provided little support [2][10] - From January to February, the daily average domestic raw coal output was 13.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%, while thermal power demand decreased by 5.8% cumulatively, highlighting the deterioration of supply - demand growth [10] - Since March, due to the inversion of domestic and foreign price differences and changes in Indonesia's pricing policy, there may be a small amount of extrusion of imported coal. Considering the high domestic supply and inventory, coal prices will continue to seek the bottom [10] Domestic Coal: Testing the Real Cost Line - From January to February, the national raw coal output was 770 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%, with a daily average output of about 13 million tons. After the Spring Festival, coal mines resumed work normally, and some state - owned coal mines even increased production time [12] - Although the coal supply - demand situation is weak, some production areas maintain high production to support the economy, exacerbating the already fragile supply - demand situation [12] - Compared with the production cuts in mid - 2023, which were mainly due to downstream full inventories and long - term contract defaults, the current decline may be a "real test of the coal mine cost line" [2][14] Imported Coal: Potential Reduction in Volume - From January to February, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 76.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Since March, with the continuous decline of domestic prices and the inversion of Indonesian coal prices, the volume of imported coal has decreased slightly month - on - month [3][29] - Under the suppression of high domestic inventory and supply, the volume of imported coal may turn negative for the first time in 2025. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of Indonesia's policy on coal prices [3][29] - In 2024, the global coal export volume remained high and stable. Indonesia's coal export volume increased by about 37 million tons in 2024, while that of Australia and Russia decreased slightly. Indonesia plans to reduce coal exports by 30 million tons in 2025 [36] Demand: Divergent Performance - Since the first quarter of 2025, thermal power demand has been in negative growth, further suppressing the weak market. Thermal power demand is affected by high winter temperatures and the continuous squeeze of new energy power generation [52] - Non - power industries' coal demand continues to diverge. The growth rate of coal use in the chemical industry remains stable, with a 10% high - growth rate from January to March. The cement industry performs poorly, with a 5.7% decline in cumulative output from January to February. The coal consumption of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with a 2.6% year - on - year increase in output in the first two months of 2025 [52] Coal Price Outlook and Policy Risks - Before large - scale and continuous production cuts occur, the coal supply - demand side will remain weak and continue to seek the bottom. The biggest driver for price rebound depends on policy [65] - Since February - March, as domestic coal prices have continued to fall, the call for restarting the imported coal quota has increased. However, the restart of the quota policy faces many obstacles and may require coal mine losses to cooperate [65]