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新世纪期货交易提示(2025-3-28)-2025-03-28
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-03-28 07:19

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Decline [4] - CSI 1000: Decline [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Copper: First decline then rise [6] - Aluminum: Oscillation and consolidation [6] - Zinc: Oscillation and rebound [6] - Nickel: Oscillation and bottom - building [6] - Stainless steel: Bottom - building [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a downward bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation with a downward bias [8] - Cotton: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Cotton yarn: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Rubber: Stop - falling and rebound [8] - White sugar: Stop - falling and rebound [8] - Pulp: Weak - biased oscillation [8] - Log: Weak - biased oscillation [10] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [10] - PTA: Wide - range oscillation, buy on dips [10] - MEG: Rebound in the far - month contract [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Buy on dips, improve processing margin [10] - Plastic: Oscillation [10] - PP: Oscillation [10] - PVC: Oscillation [12] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [12] - Apples: Stable with a downward bias [12] - Corn: Oscillation with a downward bias [12] - Eggs: Oscillation with a downward bias [12] Core Views - The black sector rebounds due to steel mills' production cuts, but the upward space of iron ore is limited, and coal - coke follows the trend of finished products. Rebar and coil are in a neutral valuation, and glass has a short - term rebound with limited space. [2] - Stock index futures show different trends, and the bullish sentiment of bonds weakens with short - term consolidation. Gold is in a strong - biased oscillation due to multiple factors. [4] - Non - ferrous metals have different trends, with copper and aluminum having long - term upward potential, and lithium carbonate and nickel facing pressure. Oils and fats are expected to oscillate widely, and meals are likely to oscillate with a downward bias. [6] - Soft commodities such as cotton and rubber have different trends, and sugar is expected to stop falling and rebound. Pulp is in a weak - biased oscillation. [8] - Energy and chemical products have complex trends, with some suitable for buying on dips and some in oscillation. Agricultural products such as live pigs, apples, corn, and eggs are mostly in an oscillation with a downward bias. [10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Some steel mills in Xinjiang reduce daily crude steel output by 10% since March 24, leading to a collective rebound in the black sector. The steel mill profitability rate is 53.68%, a 25% increase year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output rises to 237.28 tons, but the upward space is limited. Conservative investors can focus on the 05 - 09 positive spread operation of iron ore. [2] - Coal - coke: The oversupply pattern of coke remains unchanged. Some coke enterprises cut production due to losses, but the overall supply is still high. The demand for coke is limited, and the twelfth round of price cuts starts. The raw material demand is under pressure, and it follows the trend of finished products, focusing on the recovery of downstream terminal demand. [2] - Rebar and coil: In late March and early April, the pressure of position transfer for near - month contracts of black varieties increases. Rebar is at a neutral valuation, and the valley - electricity cost supports the price. Both production and demand increase, but the demand recovery is slow. The 05 contract has limited upward elasticity, and short - term external tariff policies may affect market sentiment. [2] - Glass: The glass futures price rebounds slightly after stabilizing at a low level. The production line is gradually ignited, and the output rebounds slightly. The demand recovers seasonally, and the spot sales rate is high. The short - term 2505 contract rebounds, but the space is restricted by the real - estate completion area and demand improvement. [2] Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day shows different performances of various stock indexes. Office supplies and the pharmaceutical sector have capital inflows, while power - generation equipment and energy - equipment sectors have outflows. The profit of large - scale industrial enterprises improves, but there are still difficulties. The bullish sentiment of stock indexes weakens, and long - positions can be held lightly. [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations, and the market funds are generally stable. The short - term bond market is in consolidation, and the long - term bond yield is flat. [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from real - interest - rate - centered to central - bank - gold - purchase - centered. Due to multiple factors such as debt problems, geopolitical risks, and Chinese physical - gold demand, the gold price is in a strong - biased oscillation. [4] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The policy is positive, and the long - term copper supply is tight. The short - term price is affected by the external environment, showing a trend of first decline then rise. In the long run, the price bottom will rise. [6] - Aluminum: The supply of bauxite is restricted, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum increases limitedly. The short - term price is affected by tariffs, and the long - term price has upward potential due to energy transformation. [6] - Lithium carbonate: The medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is in a bottom - building state. The cost is low, and the supply exceeds demand. [6] - Nickel: The supply of nickel iron increases, and the downstream demand is affected by infrastructure and real - estate. The medium - term price is under pressure from capacity release and the external environment. [6] Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: Indonesia may increase the export levy of crude palm oil and implement the B40 biodiesel plan. The production of Malaysian palm oil increases, and the export is weak. The supply of domestic soybean oil increases, and the palm - oil inventory is low. The three major oils and fats are expected to oscillate widely. [6] - Meals: The harvest and export of Brazilian soybeans accelerate, and the drought in Argentina eases. The supply pressure of South American soybeans and the expected reduction of the new - season US soybean area form a multi - empty situation. The domestic soybean supply is expected to ease in April, and the soybean meal is likely to oscillate with a downward bias. [6] Soft Commodities - Cotton: ICE cotton rebounds strongly, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates with an upward bias. The domestic cotton import decreases, and the downstream textile industry is generally stable. The market is sensitive to the planting area, and there will be no significant change before the USDA planting - intention report. [8] - Rubber: Shanghai rubber rebounds slightly and continues to consolidate. The import is lower than expected, and the cost supports the price. The demand is expected to increase with the recovery of the automobile market, and the price is expected to stop falling and rebound. [8] - Sugar: The domestic and foreign sugar prices are in a low - level weak operation. The sugar trade is temporarily tight, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. The import of syrup and premixed powder decreases, and the price is expected to stop falling and rebound after adjustment. [8] - Pulp: The spot price of pulp falls, and the external price is stable. The cost supports the price, but the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly. [8] Energy and Chemical Products - PX: The oil price fluctuates narrowly before the US tariff risk in April. The domestic PX load decreases, and the PXN spread oscillates. The PX price is expected to oscillate widely. [10] - PTA: The raw material oscillates and rebounds, and the PTA supply - demand is good. It follows the trend of the raw material end, and it is advisable to buy on dips. [10] - MEG: The domestic MEG load falls, and the port inventory decreases. The raw material end recovers, and the short - term disk rebounds and repairs. [10] - PR: The oil price is strong, but the downstream buying interest is weak. The polyester bottle - chip market may oscillate narrowly. [10] - PF: The cost support is strong, and the industry is in a de - stocking state. The short - fiber price is expected to strengthen. [10] - Plastic: The spot price of plastic falls, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream start - up is rising, and the 05 contract oscillates. [10] - PP: The spot price of PP rises slightly, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream start - up is recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate. [10] - PVC: The cost of PVC is stable. The upstream and downstream start - up increases slightly, and the inventory decreases. The supply - demand contradiction is still large, and the price is expected to oscillate. [12] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The supply of feed raw materials is sufficient, and the slaughter volume is supported. The terminal consumption is not significantly improved, and the pig price rebounds briefly but may continue to oscillate weakly. Focus on the pre - Tomb - Sweeping - Festival slaughter and the large - pig selling tide. [12] - Apples: The pre - Tomb - Sweeping - Festival stocking atmosphere is general, and the sales are slow. Some fruit farmers are reluctant to sell, and the foreign trade export procurement decreases. [12] - Corn: The purchase and sales rotation volume of CCDC increases, but the purchase scale is larger. The wheat - corn price difference narrows, and some traders have the intention to sell. The terminal demand is resilient, and the price may stabilize and rebound. [12] - Eggs: The market trading is light at the beginning of the week, and the egg price is under pressure. After the price falls, the trading improves, but the overall demand is average, and the price rise is weak. [12]