Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2026, oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with a low probability of a significant decline. PX production is concentrated in the second half of the year, and inventory pressure is low in the first half. PX supply and demand will remain tight, and the current PXN spread has expanded to a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to opportunities for low - buying on pullbacks and positive spreads in calendar spreads, as well as the commissioning rhythm of new plants [2][69]. - In 2026, there will be no new PTA capacity. Although PTA capacity is still in excess compared to the downstream polyester segment, PTA output is restricted by raw material PX. With a decent growth rate in polyester production, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in PTA supply and demand, and an expectation of processing margin repair, especially after the commissioning of new PX plants in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to opportunities for phased low - buying and widening far - month processing margins [3][69]. - In 2026, the growth rate of MEG capacity will pick up again, and the supply growth rate is greater than the demand growth rate. The negative feedback of existing MEG plants to profit compression is still insufficient, and it will take a longer time to squeeze the supply. Supply pressure is high, especially in the first and fourth quarters. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG opportunistically, while being vigilant against phased expectation differences and raw material price fluctuations [4][69]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review PX Market Review - In 2025, PX prices trended from low to high, and the PXN spread gradually recovered. PX was a relatively prosperous chemical product throughout the year. The PXN spread was at a low level in the first quarter due to high PX operating rates at the end of 2024 and in the first quarter, and then recovered as new PTA plants were commissioned and PX plants entered the maintenance period. In the second quarter, PX prices first declined and then rebounded, affected by trade conflicts and their subsequent easing. The PXN spread showed a similar trend. In the third quarter, PX prices fluctuated downward due to weakening cost - end oil prices and supply - demand expectations. In the fourth quarter, PX prices rebounded as oil prices stabilized and rebounded, and the market had positive expectations for the PX pattern in 2026 [6]. PTA Market Review - In 2025, PTA prices were similar to PX, with large - scale capacity and new plant commissions suppressing PTA processing margins. In the first quarter, PTA prices followed the cost - end down, and the processing margin fluctuated around 300 yuan/ton. In the second quarter, PTA prices fell to a five - year low at the beginning of April due to trade conflicts, and then rebounded as the conflicts eased. In the third quarter, PTA prices gradually declined due to the overall downturn in chemicals and expected inventory build - up. In the fourth quarter, PTA prices rose as oil prices rebounded and PTA plants increased maintenance due to low processing margins, and the market had positive expectations for the PX and PTA supply - demand patterns in 2026 [7][10]. MEG Market Review - In 2025, MEG experienced two rounds of decline under the impact of the macro - trade war and its own supply - demand entering the inventory build - up channel. In the first quarter, MEG prices gradually declined as terminal demand started slowly. In the second quarter, MEG prices were affected by tariff policy events, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts, showing a volatile trend. In the third quarter, MEG prices first rose due to positive policies and cost support, and then fell as the peak - season demand did not improve and new capacity was commissioned. In the fourth quarter, MEG prices continued to decline as domestic and foreign supply increased and the market anticipated future inventory build - up, and slightly recovered at the end of December [12]. 2. Market Analysis PX - In 2026, supply surplus will pose a downward risk to oil prices, mainly due to the increase in non - OPEC countries. However, as oil prices have been falling for four consecutive years, they may be more resilient in 2026. Brent crude oil prices are expected to range between $55 - 75 per barrel, and 2026 may be a bottom - building year for oil prices [16]. - In 2025, 300,000 tons of new PX capacity were commissioned in China, with an annual capacity growth rate of 1%. By the end of 2025, the total domestic PX capacity was expected to reach 4.397 million tons/year. In 2026, new PX plants will be commissioned in China, mainly in the second half of the year. Although there will be no new PTA capacity in 2026, PX supply and demand may still be tight overall. The PXN spread is expected to remain strong, and the market will focus more on cost - end price fluctuations [17][20]. PTA - In 2025, three PTA plants with a total capacity of 8.6 million tons/year were commissioned in China, with an annual capacity growth rate of 10%. By the end of 2025, the domestic PTA capacity was expected to reach 9.4715 million tons/year. In 2026, there will be no new PTA capacity, but production is expected to increase by about 2.5 million tons, mainly due to the release of 2025 - commissioned capacity and reduced losses from some plants. PTA exports are expected to decrease by about 1 million tons compared to 2025. With a 4% growth in domestic polyester production expected in 2026, the overall supply - demand will be slightly tight with a small inventory reduction [25][27]. - In terms of rhythm, polyester will face inventory build - up pressure after the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand pattern will improve from the second quarter. In the second half of the year, PTA maintenance is expected to decrease, and polyester operating rates will slightly decline, maintaining a tight - balance state [28]. MEG - In 2025, 170,000 tons/year of new MEG capacity were commissioned in China, with an annual capacity growth rate of 6%. By the end of 2025, the domestic MEG capacity was expected to reach 3.0525 million tons. In 2026, 275,000 tons of new MEG capacity are expected to be commissioned, with a capacity growth rate expanding to 9%. MEG will re - enter the peak capacity commissioning period, and prices will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of syngas - based MEG plants and the impact of macro - policies, special events, and oil prices [32][35]. Polyester - In 2025, 446,000 tons of new polyester capacity were commissioned in China, with an annual capacity growth rate of 5%. By the end of 2025, the domestic polyester capacity was expected to reach 8.984 million tons. In 2026, 401,000 tons of new polyester capacity are expected to be commissioned, with a capacity growth rate of about 4%. Production is expected to reach about 8.3 million tons, with a 4% increase. Polyester net exports are expected to reach about 1.5 million tons, with a 7% increase. Polyester's average operating rate will be about 90% [45][48]. Spinning and Apparel - In the domestic market in 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the operating income of the textile, clothing, and apparel industry ended in June, and the decline by November exceeded the levels of recent years. The cumulative year - on - year change in the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was small, with a 4% increase by November. Product inventories in the textile, clothing, and apparel industry decreased year - on - year, with a 4% reduction by the end of November. The inventory pressure in the spinning and apparel industry is not large, and there are expectations for policy - driven domestic demand growth in 2026 [61][63]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of textile yarn, fabric, and product exports was 0.8%, while that of clothing and clothing accessories was - 4.7%. Exports of Southeast Asian countries were strong, indicating that external demand in Europe and the United States was good, and the impact of trade conflicts and industrial transfer was evident [65]. 3. Market Outlook - In 2026, oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with low probability of a significant decline. PX production is concentrated in the second half of the year, and inventory pressure is low in the first half. PX supply and demand will remain tight, and attention should be paid to low - buying on pullbacks and positive spreads in calendar spreads, as well as the commissioning rhythm of new plants [2][69]. - In 2026, there will be no new PTA capacity, but PTA output is restricted by PX. With a decent growth rate in polyester production, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in PTA supply and demand, and an expectation of processing margin repair. Attention should be paid to phased low - buying and widening far - month processing margins [3][69]. - In 2026, the supply pressure of MEG is high, especially in the first and fourth quarters. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG opportunistically, while being vigilant against phased expectation differences and raw material price fluctuations [4][69].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - SCFIS continues to rise, spot freight rates maintain an upward trend, and the market shows a strong and volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the freight rate trend in February [2]. - The core factor is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - After the holiday, the freight rates of liner companies have increased slightly, supporting the market to some extent, but there are differences in the subsequent increase. The overall market is strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On January 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1795.83 points, up 3.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1250.12 points, down 3.9% from the previous period [3]. - On January 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1296.7 points, up 10.40% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1258.31 points, up 9.96% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1743.56 points, up 38.94% from the previous period [3]. - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) (composite index) was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3]. - On December 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's December composite PMI preliminary value was 51.9, expected to be 52.6, and the previous value was 52.8. The service - sector PMI preliminary value was 52.6, lower than the market expectation of 53.3 [3]. - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, expected to be - 7, and the previous value was - 7.4 [3]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The US December S&P Global service - sector PMI preliminary value was 52.9, a six - month low, expected to be 54, and the previous value was 54.1. The US December S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 53, expected to be 53.9, and the previous value was 54.2 [4]. Market Situation - The US attack on Venezuela has made the international situation tense again, but the expected impact is limited. The US route is facing heavy snow at the end of the year, and the European route is affected by seasonal congestion, both showing different degrees of increase. However, major shipping companies have signaled resuming routes in the Red Sea. The premium space caused by weather and congestion is limited [4]. - On January 5, the main contract 2602 closed at 1855.5, up 1.48%. The trading volume was 22,900 lots, and the open interest was 26,000 lots, an increase of 1916 lots from the previous day [4]. Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high. It is recommended to take full profits and wait and see. Do not recommend additional positions [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high levels, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Volatile [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Volatile and Weakening [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Volatile [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Volatile [3] - CSI 300 Index: Rebounding [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebounding [3] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [3] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Consolidating [3] - Gold: High - level Volatility [5] - Silver: High - level Volatility [5] - Logs: Volatile [5] - Pulp: Volatile [6] - Offset Paper: Stable and Volatile [6] - Soybean Oil: Volatile [6] - Palm Oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean Meal: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Soybean No.2: Volatile and Weakening [6] - Soybean No.1: Volatile [6] - Live Pigs: Weakening [8] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wide - range Volatility [10] - PTA: Wide - range Volatility [10] - MEG: Low - level Volatility [10] - PR: On - hold [10] - PF: On - hold [10] Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of the black industry have no prominent contradictions, with multiple long and short factors in supply and demand competing, and prices are expected to move within a range. Uncertainties in the coal - coke market in January are high, and attention should be paid to the price trend of coking coal and the downstream stocking rhythm. The steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the possible introduction of crude steel production control policies. The glass market needs to verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and whether the demand can be maintained [2]. - The stock index futures and options market has a positive start in the new year, and the recent market is expected to maintain an upward trend. The bond market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend [3]. - The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not reversed, and the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors. The Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts provide strong medium - and long - term support for gold prices. The log market has stable supply, weak demand, and falling costs, and prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - The pulp market has a pattern of loose supply and demand, and prices may maintain a volatile trend. The double - offset paper market has weak fundamental driving forces, and prices are expected to be stable and volatile in the short term. The oil and fat market is short - term volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil. The meal market is expected to be volatile and weak, and attention should be paid to South American weather, auction policies, soybean arrival rhythms, and Spring Festival logistics efficiency [6]. - The average trading weight of live pigs may decline, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly after the holiday. The rubber market has characteristics of marginal supply relief, consumption entering the traditional off - season, and high inventory, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The PX and PTA markets are wide - range volatile, and the MEG market is low - level volatile. The PR market is expected to adjust strongly and volatile, and the PF market is expected to be strongly volatile [10]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: During the New Year's Day holiday, Singapore iron ore futures fluctuated narrowly. In the first quarter, the main production areas in Australia and Brazil enter the seasonal weather - sensitive period, which may lead to a phased contraction in shipments. Steel demand is in the traditional off - season, and the current hot - metal output is close to the phased bottom. Steel mills' imported ore inventories are at a new low in the same period in recent years, and the rigid demand for winter storage replenishment is gradually increasing, providing short - term support for steel prices. However, domestic port inventories are continuously at a high level, and the upward range of iron ore prices is under pressure [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Before and after New Year's Day, the spot price of the coke market declined under pressure, and the fourth round of price cuts was implemented. The average profit of coking plants further declined. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are loose, and the overall operating load of coking plants is stable. Some steel - mill coking plants have inventory accumulation and mainly focus on active shipments. After the fourth round of price cuts, the procurement enthusiasm of some steel mills has increased, and the output of five major steel products has increased. There is an expectation of hot - metal复产 in January, and the fundamentals of coke are expected to improve. However, under the dual suppression of the consumption off - season and environmental protection restrictions, steel mills' procurement is expected to be cautious. In January, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase, and the support for the cost side of coke is insufficient [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: During the New Year's Day holiday, market activity decreased. The output of five major steel products increased by 18.36 tons to 815.18 tons. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.41 tons to 841.02 tons, and rebar was the only variety with a decline in apparent demand. The inventory of five major steel products continued to decline by 25.84 tons to 1232.15 tons, reaching the lowest level since the Spring Festival in 2025. Traders' willingness to take goods is weak, and they may continue low - inventory operations. Attention should be paid to the possible introduction of crude steel production control policies, and the current steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate [2]. - **Glass**: During the holiday, the sentiment in the spot market remained weak, the spot price decreased slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate. There is a possibility of further price cuts in the future. At the end of the year, there will be cold - repair implementation. The market needs to verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and whether the demand can be maintained. The demand for float - glass is continuously weak, and the real - estate completion decline drags down the demand outlook. The overall glass demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [2][3]. Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: In the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.90%, the SSE 50 index rose by 2.26%, the CSI 500 index rose by 2.49%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 2.09%. The insurance and healthcare sectors had net capital inflows, while the oil and gas and shipping sectors had net capital outflows. The market had a positive start in the new year, and the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 4000 points. The recent market is expected to maintain an upward trend, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures and stock index options [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield to maturity of the 10 - year China bond rose by 2bps, FR007 rose by 4bps, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 5, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 4823 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan. The central bank's liquidity injection in December 2025 showed net injections through various channels. The spot bond interest rate of treasury bonds rebounded slightly, and the market trend was in a narrow - range consolidation [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: In the context of a high - interest - rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central - bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has led to cracks in the monetary credit of the US dollar, and the de - fiat - currency attribute of gold is prominent in the process of de - dollarization. In the global high - interest - rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero - coupon bond for bonds is weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US bonds is reduced. Geopolitical risks persist, and market risk - aversion demand remains, which is an important factor driving up the gold price. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months since November last year. The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not reversed, and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors [5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, it is in a high - level volatile state. Short - term factors such as the US raid on Venezuela have increased geopolitical risks and risk - aversion sentiment, and the unexpected decline in the latest US PMI has strengthened the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cuts. The market currently expects two interest - rate cuts next year [5]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Last week, the daily average shipment volume of logs at ports was 58,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 4900 cubic meters compared with the previous week. The national daily average outbound volume decreased to less than 60,000 cubic meters due to the impact of Shandong. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in November was 1.452 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3% compared with the previous month. In November, China's coniferous log imports were 2.2295 million cubic meters, an increase of 16.86% compared with the previous month and 2.58% compared with the same period last year. The expected arrival volume last week was 510,000 cubic meters, a increase of 66.8% compared with the previous week. As of last week, the log port inventory was 2.54 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. The spot market price was relatively stable. The delivery participation willingness in the industry was low in November, and there are currently 200 registered warrants. The supply tends to be stable, the demand is relatively weak, and the cost decline is a drag, so the log price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price was relatively stable in the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was adjusted by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the price of some broad - leaf pulp in Guangdong increased by 0 - 50 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of coniferous pulp increased by 20 US dollars to 700 US dollars/ton, and the latest FOB price of broad - leaf pulp increased by 20 US dollars to 570 US dollars/ton, strengthening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper - making industry is at a low level, paper mills have high inventory pressure, and their acceptance of high - price pulp is not high. The demand is not good, and currently, paper mills purchase raw materials on a just - in - time basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The fundamentals show a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price may maintain a volatile trend [6]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot market price was stable in the previous trading day. The supply side is relatively stable this week, and there is still supply pressure. The publication orders are being picked up, which supports the market on the demand side, but the social - order demand is weak. The fundamental driving force is not strong, and the price is expected to be stable and volatile in the short term. There is a possibility of significant price fluctuations due to liquidity issues [6]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is high, and the export volume in December decreased by 5.2% - 5.8% compared with the previous month. The key variable that can boost the oil price, the biodiesel policy, is still full of uncertainties. The EPA will not finally determine the 2026 biofuel blending policy until the first quarter, and the Indonesian B50 plan is difficult to implement at least in the first half of the year. The export of US soybeans is weak, and the demand prospect is uncertain. A large amount of soybeans are continuously arriving in China, the oil - mill operating rate is at a high level, the oil inventory has declined but the supply is still abundant, the post - holiday consumption boost is limited, the catering consumption recovery is weak, and the terminal procurement willingness is average. The oil market is short - term volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meals**: The global soybean ending inventory is 122.4 million tons, which is relatively loose. Currently, the weather conditions in Brazil are excellent, while Argentina is facing drought problems, and there are still many uncertainties in subsequent growth. The northern region of Brazil has started the harvesting work, indicating that the new - season soybeans are approaching the global market. The price of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazil, and it has no export advantage to China. Coupled with the uncertainty of US biodiesel, the market has uncertainties about the demand scale of US soybeans. The weak operation of US soybeans and Argentina's reduction of the export tariff to 25% have led to a decline in the long - term soybean import cost. The domestic oil - mill operating rate is expected to decline but remain at a high level, and a large amount of imported soybeans are arriving. The supply of soybean meal is abundant, the high breeding inventory supports consumption, but the breeding efficiency is not good, and procurement is cautious, mostly on a just - in - time basis. The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and weak, and after New Year's Day and before the Spring Festival, the market focus will be on South American weather, auction policy implementation, soybean arrival rhythm, and Spring Festival logistics efficiency [6]. - **Soybean No.2**: Brazilian new soybeans will start to be listed in January, and the global supply is expected to turn to a loose situation. The slow sales of US soybeans to China due to market concerns about US soybean exports are still the focus of the market. Coupled with the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, US soybeans are weak. Affected by a large amount of imports and state - reserve sales, the domestic soybean market shows a pattern of high inventory and high crushing volume, with loose supply. Downstream oil mills have sufficient raw - material inventory and weak demand, and the soybean No.2 market is expected to be volatile and weak. Attention should be paid to uncertainties such as the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and Sino - US trade progress [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The national average trading weight of live pigs is 124.54 kg, a slight decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous period. In some northern provinces, due to the impact of previous pig diseases, some pigs were slaughtered in advance, and farmers' bearish outlook on the future market led to accelerated slaughter. The recent cooling and holiday consumption have accelerated the digestion speed, and the average slaughter weight in local areas has decreased. In some southwestern regions, due to the peak of cured - meat consumption, large - weight live pigs were slaughtered intensively, driving up the average slaughter weight. The inventory of large pigs in the next period will decrease, and the national average trading weight of live pigs may decline. The average settlement price of key national slaughtering enterprises is 12.12 yuan/kg, a 1.2% increase compared with the previous period. The decrease in southern temperatures has increased the demand for cured meat, and some northern slaughtering enterprises have high enthusiasm for purchasing pigs, jointly supporting the increase in the settlement price. The weekly average operating rate of key domestic live - pig slaughtering enterprises has reached 44.29%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points. The snowfall and temperature decrease in the northern region have driven up the terminal pork consumption, and the increase in slaughtering - enterprise orders has driven up the operating rate. The average self - breeding and self - raising profit of live pigs is - 190.92 yuan/head, and the average profit of fattening piglets is - 184.18 yuan/head. The low temperature in most areas, the increase in cured - meat demand in the southwestern region in the early stage, and the increase in pork consumption have driven up the slaughtering operating rate. The demand for live pigs during the New Year's Day holiday has supported the increase in pig prices, and the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly after the holiday [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the closed - cutting state. The main natural - rubber - producing area in Hainan is in the seasonal shutdown state, with a small amount of output in some western areas. The low enthusiasm for raw - material procurement has led to a low purchase price. The climate conditions in the Thai - producing area are stable, and the new - rubber output maintains a normal level. The northeastern Thai - producing area is expected to gradually stop cutting at the beginning of the year, and the supply side will narrow in the short term, with the raw - rubber price remaining strong. As of late December, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 63.6%. According to CAAM data, the domestic sales volume of new - energy vehicles in November was 1.522 million, a 4.3% increase compared with the previous month and a 6.5% increase compared with the same period last year.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - SCFIS continues to rise, spot freight rates maintain an upward trend, and the market shows a strong and volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the freight rate trend in February [2] - The impact of the US raid on Venezuela on the market is expected to be limited. The premium space caused by weather and congestion is also limited. The current core factor is the direction of spot freight rates [4] - The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4] - After the holiday, the freight rates of various shipping companies have increased slightly, which supports the market to some extent, but there are differences in the subsequent increase. The overall market is strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Freight Rate Indexes - On January 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1795.83 points, up 3.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1250.12 points, down 3.9% from the previous period [3] - On January 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1296.7 points, up 10.40% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1258.31 points, up 9.96% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1743.56 points, up 38.94% from the previous period [3] - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period; the European - line price was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; the US - West route price was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3] - On December 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [3] 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the eurozone's December composite PMI was 51.9, with an expected value of 52.6 and a previous value of 52.8. The preliminary value of the services PMI was 52.6, lower than the market - expected 53.3, indicating a weakening growth momentum in the service sector [3] - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was -6.2, with an expected value of -7 and a previous value of -7.4 [3] - In November, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business climate improved [4] - In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and it fell below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [4] - The preliminary value of the US December S&P Global services PMI was 52.9, a six - month low, with an expected value of 54 and a previous value of 54.1. The preliminary value of the US December S&P Global composite PMI was 53, with an expected value of 53.9 and a previous value of 54.2 [4] 3.3 Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On January 5, the main contract 2602 closed at 1855.5, with a gain of 1.48%, a trading volume of 22,900 lots, and an open interest of 26,000 lots, an increase of 1,916 lots from the previous day [4] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high. It has been recommended to take all profits. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and not to add more positions [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international geopolitical turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5] - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high. Wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back and then judge the subsequent direction [5] 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [5] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US raid on Venezuela has led to renewed international tensions, but the expected impact is limited. The US line is facing the biggest blizzard in recent years at the end of the year, and the European line is affected by seasonal route congestion, both showing varying degrees of increase. However, major shipping companies have shown signs of resuming voyages in the Red Sea. The premium space caused by weather and congestion is considered limited. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, but the premium space caused by weather and congestion is limited. The core is the direction of spot freight rates. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rate conditions in the future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On December 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1742.64 points, a 9.7% increase from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1301.41 points, a 35.3% increase from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1656.32 points, a 103.4 - point increase from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1690 USD/TEU, a 10.24% increase from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2188 USD/FEU, a 9.84% increase from the previous period [3]. - On January 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1296.7 points, a 10.40% increase from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1258.31 points, a 9.96% increase from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1743.56 points, a 38.94% increase from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, a 0.6% increase from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, a 0.2% increase from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 792.06 points, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period [3]. - On December 31, the main contract 2602 closed at 1801.3, with a 0.52% increase, a trading volume of 21,500 lots, and an open interest of 24,100 lots, a decrease of 3725 lots from the previous day [4]. Economic Indicators - In November, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, with improved business levels. In October, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.7, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [4]. - The eurozone's December composite PMI preliminary value was 51.9, lower than the expected 52.6 and the previous value of 52.8. The services PMI preliminary value was 56.6, lower than the market - expected 53.3, indicating a weakening growth momentum in the service industry. The eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous value of - 7.4 [3]. - The US December S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value was 52.9, a six - month low, with an expected value of 54 and a previous value of 54.1. The US December S&P Global Composite PMI value was 53, with an expected value of 53.9 and a previous value of 54.2 [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high. It is recommended to take full profits and wait and see in the short term. Do not recommend additional positions [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level. Wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Volatile [3] - CSI 300 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebound [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Consolidation [3] - Gold: High-level volatility [4] - Silver: High-level volatility [4] - Logs: Volatile [4] - Pulp: Volatile [4] - Offset paper: Stable and volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and weakening [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [6] - Live pigs: Weak [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Wide-range volatility [9] - PTA: Wide-range volatility [9] - MEG: Low-level volatility [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The short-term fundamentals of the black industry have no prominent contradictions, and the supply and demand factors are in a tug-of-war, making it difficult to form a large unilateral market. The overall operation is expected to be volatile within a range [2] - After the New Year's Day holiday, the stock market is expected to be led by the technology sector, especially the semiconductor materials and information technology service concepts. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures and stock index options [3] - The logic driving the current round of gold price increase has not reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. The Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts provide solid medium- and long-term support for the gold price [4] - The spot market price of logs is running steadily. The expected increase in arrivals last week, but the supply tends to be stable, the demand is relatively weak, and the cost has positive expectations. The log price is expected to be mainly volatile [4] - The fundamentals of the pulp market show a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price may maintain a volatile trend [4] - The short-term trend of oils and fats is volatile. Attention should be paid to the weather in the South American soybean-producing areas and the risks of production and sales changes in Malaysian palm oil [6] - The meal market is expected to be volatile and weak. After New Year's Day and before the Spring Festival, the market focus will be on the weather in South America, the implementation of auction policies, the rhythm of soybean arrivals, and the efficiency of Spring Festival logistics [6] - The average transaction weight of live pigs in the next period may turn down. After the New Year's Day holiday, the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly [7] - The natural rubber market is characterized by marginal relief of supply, entry into the traditional consumption off-season, and high inventory. The upward movement of rubber prices faces obvious resistance, and the price is expected to show a volatile and weakening trend [9] - The short-term price of PX should be treated with caution after the sharp increase. It is recommended to do a good job in risk control management [9] - The short-term spot price of PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly, with the spot basis fluctuating within a range [9] - After the holiday, the price center of MEG is expected to be mainly adjusted within a range [9] - The polyester bottle chip market is still mainly driven by cost. Attention should be paid to the terminal pick-up situation [9] - The processing fee of short-fiber factories is low, the cost-side support is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak [9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - Iron ore: In the first quarter, the main producing areas in Australia and Brazil enter the seasonal weather-sensitive period, which may lead to a phased contraction in shipments. The steel mills' winter storage replenishment demand is gradually increasing, providing short-term support for steel prices. However, the high domestic port inventory suppresses the upward range of iron ore prices. The short-term operation is expected to be volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: After the four rounds of price cuts for coke are implemented, the fundamentals are expected to improve, but the steel mills' procurement is still expected to be cautious. In January, there is an expectation of an increase in coking coal supply, and the support for the cost side of coke is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the price trend of coking coal and the downstream year-end stocking rhythm [2] - Rebar: During the New Year's Day holiday, the market activity decreased. The output of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rebounded. The inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline, and the traders' willingness to take goods was weak. The steel price is estimated to remain at the bottom and fluctuate [2] - Glass: The spot market sentiment during the holiday was still weak, the spot price declined slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. There is an expectation of cold repair at the end of the year. The market is expected to first verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and then verify whether the demand can be maintained. Attention should be paid to the macro situation and the cold repair of production lines [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: After the New Year's Day holiday, the market is expected to be led by the technology sector. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures and stock index options [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond is flat, and the market trend rebounds slightly. The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the one-day net withdrawal of funds is 4336 billion yuan [3] Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts provide solid medium- and long-term support for the gold price. In the short term, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and geopolitical conflicts are positive for the gold price, while the position adjustment pressure at the beginning of the year and the reduction of the leverage ratio by the world's largest exchange suppress the gold price [4] - Silver: The short-term trend is similar to that of gold, with high-level volatility [4] Light Industry - Logs: The spot market price is running steadily. The expected increase in arrivals last week, but the supply tends to be stable, the demand is relatively weak, and the cost has positive expectations. The log price is expected to be mainly volatile [4] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices is increasing, but the demand is not good, and the fundamentals show a pattern of loose supply and demand. The price may maintain a volatile trend [4] - Offset paper: The supply side is relatively stable this week, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand side has support for the market, but the social orders are average. The large paper mills have a strong willingness to raise prices, and the positive sentiment may continue, but the fundamental driving support is not strong. The short-term price is expected to be stable and volatile [6] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils and fats: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is high, and the high inventory still suppresses the price. The biofuel blending policy is still uncertain. The demand outlook for US soybeans is uncertain, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is still abundant. The short-term trend of oils and fats is volatile [6] - Meals: The global soybean ending inventory is relatively loose. The weather conditions in Brazil are excellent, while Argentina is facing drought. The new-season soybeans are approaching the market. The price of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazil, and the demand scale is uncertain. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand is cautious. The meal market is expected to be volatile and weak [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs in the next period may turn down. The demand for live pigs during the New Year's Day holiday boosts the pig price, but after the holiday, the weekly average price may decline slightly [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply side of natural rubber is narrowing in the short term, and the raw material rubber price is relatively strong. The demand side is supported insufficiently, and the inventory is in the seasonal accumulation period. The upward movement of rubber prices faces obvious resistance, and the price is expected to show a volatile and weakening trend [9] Polyester - PX: The supply of PX is generally loose, and the downstream demand is seasonally weakening. The short-term price should be treated with caution after the sharp increase. It is recommended to do a good job in risk control management [9] - PTA: The short-term spot price of PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly, with the spot basis fluctuating within a range [9] - MEG: The load of domestic MEG is slowly recovering, the overseas supply is being squeezed out, and the port inventory is high and continues to accumulate. After the holiday, the price center of MEG is expected to be mainly adjusted within a range [9] - PR: The short-term supply increases slightly, the downstream maintains rigid demand replenishment, and the supply and demand stalemate pattern continues. The polyester bottle chip market is still mainly driven by cost. Attention should be paid to the terminal pick-up situation [9] - PF: The processing fee of short-fiber factories is low, the cost-side support is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US's attack on Venezuela has led to renewed tensions in the international situation, but the expected impact is limited. The US line is facing the biggest snowstorm in recent years at the end of the year, and the European line is affected by seasonal route congestion, both showing varying degrees of increase. However, major shipping companies have shown signs of resuming navigation in the Red Sea. The premium space caused by weather and congestion is considered limited. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - The main contract closed at 1801.3 on December 31st, with a gain of 0.52%, a trading volume of 21,500 lots, and an open interest of 24,100 lots, a decrease of 3,725 lots from the previous day. Before the holiday, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and combined with some long - position funds reducing their positions and leaving the market, the market fluctuated widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates in the future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Indexes - On December 29th, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1742.64 points, up 9.7% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (US West route) was 1301.41 points, up 35.3% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced a price of 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period, and the SCFI US West route was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3]. - On January 2nd, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 1296.7 points, up 10.40% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1258.31 points, up 9.96% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1743.56 points, up 38.94% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In the eurozone, the December composite PMI preliminary value was 51.9 (expected 52.6, previous value 52.8). The service - sector PMI preliminary value was 56.6, lower than the market expectation of 53.3, indicating a weakening growth momentum in the service sector. The December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2 (expected - 7, previous value - 7.4) [3]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with an improved business climate. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [4]. - The US December S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 52.9 (a six - month low, expected 54, previous value 54.1), and the December S&P Global composite PMI value was 53 (expected 53.9, previous value 54.2) [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high. It is recommended to take full profits and mainly wait and see in the short term. Do not recommend additional positions [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical Events - On January 3rd (local time), the US launched a military strike on Venezuela. A Venezuelan official said that at least 40 people, including military and civilians, were killed. As of now, the Venezuelan official has not officially announced the casualty figures. US President Trump announced that the military successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and took them out of Venezuela [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday sentiment is cautious, with the market fluctuating. After suggesting taking profits, short - term investors are advised to wait and see. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Index - On December 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1742.64 points, up 9.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.41 points, up 35.3% from the previous period [2]. - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3]. - On December 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1094.77 points, up 7.24% from the previous period. The NCFI for the European route was 1144.37 points, up 7.22% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1254.91 points, up 2.16% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period. The CCFI for the European route was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [4]. b. Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous - 7.4 [5]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [5]. - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, higher than the expected 54.6 and the previous 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, with an expected 54.6 and a previous 54.6 [5]. c. Futures Market - On December 30, the main contract 2602 closed at 1795.1, down 2.08%. The trading volume was 24,800 lots, and the open interest was 27,900 lots, a decrease of 2582 lots from the previous day. Due to strong pre - holiday caution and some long - position funds leaving the market, the main contract fluctuated downward [6]. d. Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: After the main contract reached a new high, it was recommended to take full profits. Short - term investors are advised to wait and see and not to add more positions [7]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [7]. - Long - term strategy: It was recommended to take profits when each contract reached a high and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [7]. e. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [7]. f. Geopolitical Event - On December 28 (local time), the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed that last week, its delegation signed the 2026 tri - military cooperation work plan with the military representatives of Greece and Cyprus in Cyprus, as well as bilateral military cooperation plans between Israel and Greece and between Israel and Cyprus [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, glass, soda ash, 2-year treasury bonds, 5-year treasury bonds, log, pulp, double offset paper, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean two, rubber: Oscillation [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500, CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 10-year treasury bonds: Consolidation [3] - Gold, silver: Correction [5] - Live pigs: Relatively strong [7] - PX, PTA: Wide-range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low-level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views of the Report - The high supply, weak demand, and high inventory pattern of iron ore remains unchanged, but short-term bullish sentiment has emerged due to policy changes and the expectation of pre-holiday restocking by steel mills. Long-term shorting opportunities should be considered after restocking is realized [2] - The fourth round of price cuts for coke is expected to be proposed at the end of the month and implemented in early January. Coal coke still has support due to capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - The implementation of the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply-side policy benefits to demand-side negatives, which will have a direct impact on steel exports and raw material prices [2] - The price of glass is expected to experience a process of first verifying supply reduction and then verifying demand sustainability. The overall demand is weak, and attention should be paid to macro and production line cold repair situations [2] - The stock indexes of the previous trading day showed different trends. The government's advance allocation of 625 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade-in programs is expected to drive consumption [3] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Short-term corrections are possible, but there is solid medium- to long-term support [5] - The supply of logs is expected to stabilize, but demand is relatively weak. Prices are expected to oscillate [5] - The supply of pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - The supply of double offset paper is stable, and demand has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [5] - The supply of edible oils is abundant, and demand is uncertain. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - The global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] - The demand for live pigs is expected to increase during the New Year's Day holiday, which will support price increases [7] - The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate due to supply and demand factors and inventory accumulation [9] - The supply of PX is high, and the demand for PTA has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9] - The supply of MEG has long-term accumulation pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [9] - The polyester bottle chip market may consolidate within a range due to the high price of raw materials and a wait-and-see attitude in the industry [9] - The short fiber market is expected to be in a wait-and-see state in the short term [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short-term bullish sentiment due to policy and restocking expectations. Long-term shorting after restocking [2] - **Coal Coke**: Fourth round of price cuts expected. Support from capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - **Rolled Steel**: Impacted by export license management. Policy changes bring short-term bullish sentiment, but prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [2] - **Glass**: Cold repair expected at the end of the year. Market to verify supply reduction and demand sustainability. Overall demand is weak [2] - **Soda Ash**: Inventory accumulation, high midstream inventory, and weak demand. Attention to macro and production line cold repair [2] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different trends in previous trading day's stock indexes. Advance allocation of special treasury bonds to support consumption [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest rates are in a state of consolidation, and the market shows a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Pricing mechanism shift. Short-term corrections possible, but solid medium- to long-term support [5] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, short-term corrections and medium- to long-term support [5] Light Industry - **Log**: Supply expected to stabilize, demand weak. Prices to oscillate [5] - **Pulp**: Abundant supply, weak demand. Prices to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - **Double Offset Paper**: Stable supply, some demand support. Short-term stable oscillation [5] Oilseeds and Oils - **Edible Oils**: Abundant supply, uncertain demand. Short-term price oscillation [6] - **Meal**: Abundant global soybean inventory, sufficient soybean meal supply. Price oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Increased demand during the New Year's Day holiday to support price increases [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply affected by weather, demand with some support. Inventory accumulation, price oscillation [9] Polyester - **PX**: High supply, demand supported by downstream polyester. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **PTA**: Cost affected by oil prices, short-term supply-demand improvement. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **MEG**: Long-term supply accumulation pressure, short-term low-level oscillation [9] - **PR**: High raw material prices, industry wait-and-see. Market range consolidation [9] - **PF**: Short-term market wait-and-see [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday sentiment is one of strong wait - and - see. The futures market is oscillating, and it is recommended to take profits and then mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term [1][7] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is suggested to participate lightly or wait and see [5] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and the spot freight rate situation [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs SCFIS, NCFI, and Other Freight Rate Indexes - On December 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1742.64 points, up 9.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.41 points, up 35.3% from the previous period [2] - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3] - On December 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1094.77 points, up 7.24% from the previous period; the NCFI European route was 1144.37 points, up 7.22% from the previous period; the NCFI US - West route was 1254.91 points, up 2.16% from the previous period [4] - On December 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI European route was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; the CCFI US - West route was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [4] Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI preliminary value was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector PMI preliminary value was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8 [5] - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [5] - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [5] - The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8; the US November S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month [5] Futures Market - On December 30, the main contract 2602 closed at 1795.1, down 2.08% with a trading volume of 24,800 lots and an open interest of 27,900 lots, a decrease of 2582 lots from the previous day [6] - Due to strong pre - holiday wait - and - see sentiment and some long - position funds reducing their positions, the main contract oscillated downward [6] Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high. It is recommended to take all profits and mainly wait and see in the short term, not to continue adding positions [7] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [7] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent trend [7] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [7] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [7] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7] Geopolitical Event - On December 28 (local time), the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed that last week, its delegation signed the 2026 tripartite military cooperation work plan with the military representatives of Greece and Cyprus in Cyprus, as well as bilateral military cooperation plans between Israel and Greece and between Israel and Cyprus [8]