TONGHUA GOLDEN-HORSE(000766) 申万宏源证券·2025-03-28 07:22Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Tonghua Jinma, marking its first coverage [6][9]. Core Views - The company has shifted from relying on mergers and acquisitions to a strategy focused on innovation and high-quality development, achieving positive changes across multiple operational levels [6][20]. - There is a significant need for new Alzheimer's disease (AD) drugs in China, where the prevalence and mortality rates are higher than the global average, indicating a market opportunity for innovative treatments [8][35]. - The new drug, Suhe Batyuan Amino Acid Tablets, is expected to reach peak sales of approximately 7 billion yuan, with a strong clinical efficacy profile [8][12]. Summary by Sections Strategic Adjustments and Innovations - Tonghua Jinma has undergone strategic adjustments since 2019, focusing on innovation-driven growth through R&D breakthroughs, asset optimization, and marketing reforms [6][20]. - The company has established a complete industrial chain for musk, investing at least 100 million yuan to build a breeding base [6][32]. Alzheimer's Disease Drug Market - The report highlights the urgent need for new AD drugs in China, with the number of patients expected to rise to 15.5 million by 2025 [35][36]. - Current treatments primarily consist of cholinesterase inhibitors, with existing drugs failing to meet clinical needs effectively [8][35]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The projected total revenue for Tonghua Jinma is expected to grow from 1.473 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.89 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.6% [7][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 44 million yuan in 2023 to 90 million yuan by 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [7][9]. Valuation and Market Potential - Using the FCFF absolute valuation method, the target market value for Tonghua Jinma is estimated at 22.2 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current market capitalization [9][12]. - The report emphasizes the potential for Suhe Batyuan Amino Acid Tablets to significantly contribute to revenue starting in 2025, with expectations for gradual market penetration [10][11].