Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 9.90 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 was impacted by a decline in payment transaction volume (GPV), which fell by 19% year-on-year, leading to a net profit of RMB 0.82 billion, significantly below expectations [1][2]. - Despite the challenges, the company has seen rapid growth in its overseas business, with transaction volume increasing nearly fivefold in 2024 [1][2]. - The company is expected to return to growth in its core payment business in 2025, driven by an improving consumer sentiment and its leading position in the QR code payment sector [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 3.09 billion and a net profit of RMB 0.82 billion, with a significant non-recurring expense related to transaction fee adjustments [1][5]. - The adjusted payment fee rate for 2024 was 11.9 bps, down 1.4 bps year-on-year, while the adjusted gross margin for payment services was 17% [2][4]. Business Segments - The merchant solutions segment saw a revenue decline of 6% in 2024, with a gross margin of 87% [3]. - The in-store business is nearing breakeven, with a gross margin improvement from 80.3% in 2023 to 81.3% in 2024 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down to RMB 2.1 billion, RMB 2.4 billion, and RMB 3.3 billion respectively, reflecting a significant reduction of 53% and 60% [4][17]. - The company is valued using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with expected multiples of 16.3x PE for payment services, 5.1x PS for merchant solutions, and 2.5x PS for in-store e-commerce [4][12].
移卡（09923）：2024年支付GPV承压拖累盈利