杭氧股份（002430）：在手订单饱满，新兴业务驱动韧性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 31.20 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 13.716 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 922 million, a decrease of 24.15% year-on-year. The fourth quarter revenue was RMB 3.364 billion, down 4.68% year-on-year and 7.21% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company has a robust order backlog and has signed six new gas investment projects in 2024, with a total oxygen production capacity of approximately 650,000 Nm³/h. The cumulative order amount for air separation petrochemical equipment reached RMB 5.512 billion [3]. - The company has made significant progress in emerging fields, with sales of electronic-grade hydrogen and helium increasing by 88.31% and 92.87% year-on-year, respectively. The traditional business remains resilient, with a record high contract amount for petrochemical equipment in 2024 at RMB 841 million [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 20.85%, a decrease of 2.06 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the low prices in the industrial gas and liquid markets. The total expense ratio was 11.06%, down 0.52 percentage points year-on-year, indicating good control over expenses [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q4 2024 was RMB 1.435 billion, showing a significant improvement of 628% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to customer payments [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted downwards by 4.28% and 6.31% to RMB 1.283 billion and RMB 1.508 billion, respectively. The estimated net profit for 2027 is RMB 1.752 billion, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.30, RMB 1.53, and RMB 1.78 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5].