Dongguan Securities·2025-03-28 08:54Investment Rating - Overweight (Maintain) for the electronics industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The display technology is continuously evolving, transitioning through CRT, LCD, and OLED stages. TFT-LCD technology is mature and dominates the large-size panel market, while AMOLED is primarily used in small to medium-sized panels due to its advantages in color contrast and flexibility [11][12][19]. - The LCD market is expected to grow due to the increasing average size of TV panels, with a projected global TV shipment of approximately 218 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [30][32]. - The OLED penetration rate is anticipated to rise, driven by AI advancements and subsidy policies, with OLED panels expected to account for over 50% of smartphone panel shipments in 2024 [49][88]. Summary by Sections Display Technology Evolution - Display technology has evolved through three main stages: CRT, LCD, and OLED. LCD is currently the mainstream technology, while OLED is gaining traction due to decreasing costs and improved production yields [11][12]. LCD Market Dynamics - The global LCD TV panel shipment average size is projected to reach 51.4 inches in 2024, up from 45.3 inches in 2019. The market share of domestic manufacturers in the global LCD panel market is expected to increase from 65.8% in 2023 to 72.7% by 2025 [30][43]. - Major manufacturers like BOE and TCL are expected to shift focus from market share to profit targets, implementing a demand-based production strategy to maintain market balance and stabilize prices [43][102]. OLED Market Trends - The global OLED panel market share for domestic manufacturers reached 49.7% in Q1 2024, surpassing Korean manufacturers for the first time. The penetration of OLED in smartphones is projected to exceed 50% in 2024 [49][88]. - Domestic manufacturers are actively expanding into the medium-sized OLED market, with significant investments in new production lines aimed at high-end applications [98][99]. Industry Cycle Reduction - The panel industry is characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by supply-demand mismatches. However, with domestic manufacturers gaining significant market share, the cyclical nature of the industry is expected to diminish, leading to more stable pricing [100][102].