Dongguan Securities·2025-03-28 08:53Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [49]. Core Insights - Several thermal power companies have reported significant year-on-year profit growth, with China Huadian International's net profit increasing by 26%, Huaneng International by 20%, and Datang Power by 230%, primarily due to the decline in coal prices [5][42]. - The report suggests focusing on thermal power companies such as Huadian International (600027), Guodian Power (600795), and Hubei Energy (000883), as well as gas companies like Xin'ao (600803), Jiufeng Energy (605090), and New Natural Gas (603393) [42][43]. Market Review - As of March 27, the Shenwan Public Utility Index rose by 1.1% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.6 percentage points, ranking 10th among 31 Shenwan industries. Year-to-date, the index has decreased by 3.9%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.8 percentage points, ranking 28th [5][12]. - Among the sub-sectors, hydropower increased by 2.5%, electric energy services by 2.3%, wind power by 2.2%, gas by 1.5%, and thermal power by 0.7%. Conversely, photovoltaic power and thermal services decreased by 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively [5][14]. Industry Valuation - As of March 27, the public utility sector's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 17.5, below the one-year average. The P/E ratios for sub-sectors are as follows: photovoltaic at 82.4, hydropower at 19.8, wind power at 19.7, thermal services at 19.2, electric energy services at 18.0, gas at 18.0, and thermal power at 12.5 [19][20]. Industry Data Tracking - As of March 27, the average price of Shanxi Yulin thermal coal (Q6000) was 622 CNY/ton, up 1.4% from the previous value. The average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 675 CNY/ton, down 1.9% [32][33]. Key Industry News - In February, the total electricity consumption in China reached 15,564 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The installed power generation capacity reached 3.4 billion kW, a 14.5% increase year-on-year, with solar power capacity growing by 42.9% and wind power by 17.6% [44]. - The National Energy Administration issued 488 million green power certificates in the first two months of 2025, with 312 million being tradable [44].