铜行业追踪：关税扰动刺激短期需求，需求旺盛支撑铜价走强

Investment Rating - The report rates the copper industry as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The proposed 25% tariff on copper by the U.S. is expected to increase corporate inventory demand, leading to a short-term boost in copper prices. As of March 27, 2025, LME 3-month copper futures were priced at $9,846 per ton, with the spot price at$9,787 per ton, indicating a narrowing gap between futures and spot prices [1][8] - There is a persistent tight supply of refined copper globally, with a notable deficit in 2023. Although some improvement is expected by February 2024, the market is anticipated to return to a state of supply shortage by September 2024, which will support higher copper prices [2][10] - The rise of AI and advancements in computing power are driving increased demand for copper, particularly in data centers and 5G infrastructure. The global demand for copper used in PCBs reached 580,000 tons in 2023, with projections indicating that this could exceed one million tons by 2025 [3][13] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Impact and Demand - The U.S. is considering a 25% tariff on copper, which has led to increased inventory accumulation by companies due to concerns over future price hikes. This is expected to support short-term demand for copper [1][8] Section 2: Supply Constraints - Global refined copper supply has been tight, with a deficit observed in most months of 2023. The situation is expected to improve slightly in early 2024, but a return to supply shortages is anticipated later in the year [2][10] Section 3: Demand Expansion through AI - The development of generative AI and enhanced computing capabilities is creating new opportunities in the computing sector, leading to increased demand for various copper products. The demand for copper in PCBs is projected to grow significantly, driven by investments in computing infrastructure [3][13] Section 4: Key Investment Targets - Zijin Mining is highlighted as a key player due to its substantial mineral reserves and advanced technology in copper and gold mining. The company operates extensively in China and internationally [16] - Jiangxi Copper is noted as the largest copper producer in China, benefiting from its integrated operations across the entire copper supply chain, which positions it well to capitalize on rising copper prices [17]