冠通研究：刚需不及预期，盘面承压运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. Affected by the tariff trade war, the non - ferrous sector was under pressure. The tariff was expected in advance, and there was a possibility of huge losses for the copper previously sent to the US through arbitrage. The supply side was disturbed, and the smelter processing fees weakened. Although the import of scrap copper was in continuous loss, the demand for scrap copper increased due to the tightening of the copper mine end. It was expected that the subsequent import volume of scrap copper would decline. On the demand side, the market's expectation for industrial demand was weak, and the downstream market had a fear of high prices, which hindered the destocking of refined copper inventory. However, there was still demand potential in the traditional peak season. The main trading logic of the copper market recently was the US tariff policy, but in the case of a weak peak season, the market might return to the fundamental trading logic. In the medium - to - long term, the market was still in a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend, and attention should be paid to the range of 80,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Analysis - The US tariff policy affected the copper market. The smelter processing fees (TC/RC) were negative and expanding, and the copper mine end was tightening, forcing an increase in scrap copper demand. Although the import of scrap copper was in loss, the import volume was still increasing, but it was expected to decline later. The market's expectation for industrial demand was weak, and the downstream was afraid of high prices, but there was still demand potential in the peak season. The market might return to the fundamental trading logic, and the medium - to - long - term trend was fluctuating and slightly stronger, with the focus on the 80,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton range [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower, closing at 80,450 yuan/ton. The number of long orders of the top 20 was 135,820 lots, a decrease of 13,535 lots; the number of short orders was 140,422 lots, a decrease of 12,990 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 20 yuan/ton, and in South China was 60 yuan/ton. On March 27, 2025, the LME official price was 9,846 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 59 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of March 21, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 23.01 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 2.32 cents/pound. In February 2025, China's refined copper production increased by 44,400 tons month - on - month, an increase of 4.38%, and 11.35% year - on - year [7]. 3.4 Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 135,700 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. As of March 24, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 111,100 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 215,300 tons, a slight decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 94,300 short tons, an increase of 971 short tons from the previous period [10].