沥青策略：沥青：震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Oscillating" for asphalt [1] Core Viewpoint - The report suggests holding long positions in asphalt in the near term due to factors such as a decline in asphalt production rate, potential increase in demand from government spending, and supply - side uncertainties caused by international policies [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The asphalt production rate this week dropped 0.5 percentage points to 26.7%, 3.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, close to the lowest level in recent years. The expected production in March is 238.6 million tons, a 13.2% increase from the previous month. The downstream industries are gradually resuming work, but the recovery is slow. The government plans to increase local government special bonds, and the national asphalt shipment volume increased 5.49% week - on - week to 241,900 tons. The refinery inventory ratio decreased, but actual demand still needs to recover. Due to international policies affecting crude oil supply, it is recommended to hold long positions in asphalt [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The asphalt futures 2506 contract rose 0.17% to 3,628 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,593 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,641 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 4,057 to 224,373 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,610 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract dropped to - 18 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some refineries' production suspension and conversion led to a 0.5 - percentage - point drop in the asphalt production rate to 26.7%. The highway construction investment from January to February decreased 7.2% year - on - year, and the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased 3.2% year - on - year. The infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased 5.6% year - on - year. The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy with increased deficit, special bonds, etc., and attention should be paid to the progress of physical work volume [4] Inventory - As of the week of March 28, the asphalt refinery inventory ratio decreased 0.5 percentage points to 20.2% compared to the week of March 21, ending the continuous increase after the Spring Festival and remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5]