BAOWU MAGNESIUM(002182) 东兴证券·2025-03-28 11:13Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading integrated player in the magnesium industry, benefiting from strong resource reserves and a comprehensive production chain [18][29]. - The company's magnesium alloy business is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase in market share due to new capacity expansions [40]. - The overall demand for magnesium products is anticipated to rise, driven by trends in automotive lightweighting and advancements in robotics [45]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1993 and listed in 2007, has become a key player in the magnesium industry, with a complete production chain from raw material extraction to alloy processing [18][22]. Resource Reserves - The company holds substantial white marble reserves, approximately 1.97 billion tons, accounting for nearly 10% of China's total known reserves [2][30]. - The company’s mining rights and production capacity are set to increase significantly by 2025, reaching a total annual capacity of 53 million tons [30]. Production Capacity - The company's raw magnesium production capacity is expected to grow from 100,000 tons in 2023 to 300,000 tons by the end of 2024, marking a 200% increase [3][32]. - The company’s market share in raw magnesium production is projected to rise from 7.4% in 2023 to 20.2% in 2024 [3][32]. Magnesium Alloy Business - The company currently holds over 50% market share in the domestic magnesium alloy sector, with production capacity expected to increase from 200,000 tons in 2023 to 600,000 tons by the end of 2025 [39][40]. - The anticipated growth in magnesium alloy production is linked to new projects, including a 300,000-ton facility in Anhui, which will be the largest magnesium alloy production base globally [40]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 8.84 billion, 10.92 billion, and 14.40 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 256 million, 566 million, and 991 million yuan [10][11]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in profitability due to increased production capacity and market demand [10]. Industry Trends - The report notes a growing demand for magnesium in various sectors, particularly in automotive lightweighting and robotics, which is expected to drive future growth [45]. - The overall market for magnesium products in China is projected to grow from 10.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.2 billion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% [2].