港美股二季度策略：东升西不落，港股：利好政策不断，振荡中上行，美股：短期振荡，长期价值逐步显现

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hang Seng Index rose approximately 19.2% from January 1 to March 24, driven primarily by a valuation increase from a Forward PE of 9.7 to 11.9, contributing 23.1% to the rise[29] - The Forward EPS decreased by 3.2% during the same period, indicating that the increase in the index was mainly due to valuation recovery rather than earnings growth[30] - The current Forward PE of the Hang Seng Index is at 11.6x, which is at the lower end of the reasonable range compared to historical averages[35] Group 2: Chinese Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, consistent with last year's target and actual growth, supported by a combination of proactive fiscal and monetary policies[6] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is planned at 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from 2024, with total fiscal spending expected to reach 5.66 trillion yuan[9] - The CPI in February 2025 fell by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the first negative value since January 2024, while the PPI has been in negative territory for 29 consecutive months, indicating weak domestic and international demand[6] Group 3: U.S. Economic Outlook - The probability of a recession in the U.S. for 2025 is estimated at 25% according to Bloomberg economists and 23.18% according to New York Fed models, indicating a low likelihood of recession[44] - The S&P 500 index experienced a 10% decline from February 19 to March 13, with a Forward PE drop of 22.9% from 26.6 to 20.5, suggesting a return to a reasonable valuation range[40] - In non-recession years, the S&P 500 has an 84% probability of increasing, with a median annual increase of 13.41%[44]