Economic Data - In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000, exceeding the expectation of 126,000 but lower than the previous value of 177,000[12] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, matching expectations and previous values[12] - Average hourly earnings in the private non-farm sector rose to $36.24, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, both better than expectations[12] Market Sentiment - According to the AAII survey, 41.4% of retail investors are bearish on the stock market, while 32.7% are bullish, resulting in a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 0.79, consistent with previous values[16] - The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) has a weekly moving average of 501, showing a downward trend overall[20] - The Fear and Greed Index moved from a 'neutral' to a 'greed' zone, closing at 63 points, indicating high market sentiment[20] Global Market Performance - Global equity markets rose by 1.4% last week, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets (2.2% vs. 1.3%)[26] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.5%, while the Tech Giants Index rose by 2.1%, outperforming the broader market[26] - Among 36 secondary sectors, 29 sectors saw gains, with significant increases in steel and semiconductors[28] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E (TTM) ratio for the S&P 500 is 26.9, which is above the ten-year average of 24.6 and at the 80th percentile[36] - The dynamic P/E ratio slightly increased from 22.8 to 22.9, a rise of 0.7%, with a significant gap of approximately 15% from the recent peak of 26.4[36] - The forecasted EPS for the S&P 500 decreased slightly from $259.58 to $259.00, a change of about -0.2%[36] Investment Strategy - The easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China has positively impacted market sentiment, with the S&P 500 recovering from previous declines related to tariff changes[3] - The report suggests maintaining a diversified asset allocation strategy, recommending investments in tech giants, NASDAQ 100, ARKK, Bitcoin, and gold ETFs[3]

Economic Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were 227,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous value, better than the market expectation of 230,000[7] - The weekly Redbook retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, down from the previous 5.8%[11] - The New York Fed's weekly economic index was 1.90%, with a 13-week moving average of 2.35%[13] Market Sentiment - The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) had a weekly moving average of 459, influenced by President Trump's proposed 50% tariffs on the EU starting June 1[18] - The Fear and Greed Index remained in the 'Greed' zone, closing at 64 points[16] Global Market Overview - Global equity markets saw a weekly decline of 1.4%, with emerging markets down 0.1% and developed markets down 1.6%[22] - Gold prices increased by 5.3% over the week, while Bitcoin rose by 3.8%[22] U.S. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.6%, while the tech giants (the "Seven") dropped by 2.8%[23] - Large-cap value stocks outperformed small-cap value stocks, with large-cap value (Russell 1000 Value) down 2.6% and small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value) down 3.8%[23] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio (TTM) for the S&P 500 is 26, slightly above the 10-year average of 24.5, indicating a valuation percentile of 75.7%[24] - The highest valuation percentiles among the 11 sectors are Real Estate and Information Technology, both around 89%[24] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a barbell strategy, balancing investments in gold ETFs (GLD) to hedge against tariff uncertainties and ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) for growth potential[3]

Market Sentiment - The latest US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) is reported at 618 points, with a 7-day moving average of 556 points, indicating an overall downward trend [3][7][8] - The sentiment indicator from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that 51.5% of retail investors are bearish on the stock market, while 29.4% are bullish, resulting in a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 0.57, an increase from the previous value of 0.35 [3][9] - The Fear and Greed Index improved rapidly last week, closing at 62 points, moving from 'neutral' to 'greed', and remained in the 'greed' zone throughout the week [3][10] Global Market Overview - The global equity market experienced a weekly decline of 0.3%, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets, which saw a decline of 0.3% [12] - Bitcoin showed exceptional performance with a weekly increase of 6.3%, making it the best-performing asset class for the week, while gold rose by 2.6% [12] US Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index declined by 0.5% for the week, while the seven major tech stocks fell by 0.7%, and the Golden Dragon Index weakened with a 1.5% drop [12][13] - In terms of investment style, small-cap value stocks outperformed large-cap value stocks, and large-cap growth stocks outperformed small-cap growth stocks [12][13] Industry Performance - Among the 36 secondary industries in the US stock market, 18 showed gains, with coal, electrical equipment, and textile apparel among the top performers [15] - A total of 21 secondary industries outperformed the S&P 500 index, which declined by 0.5% [15] Valuation Metrics - As of now, 360 S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings, with 76% (274 companies) exceeding EPS expectations, slightly above the 10-year average of 75% [3] - The current S&P 500 PE (TTM) is at 25.3 times, slightly above the 10-year average of 24.5 times, placing it in the 70th percentile over the past decade [3][10] - The forward PE for the S&P 500 decreased slightly from approximately 21.7 times to 21.6 times, while forward EPS fell from $262.4 to $261.7, a decline of about 0.3% [3][10] Strategy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and balance sheet reduction in May, aligning with expectations, and emphasized the significant uncertainty of tariff policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - The report suggests that the worst of tariff uncertainty has passed, with expectations of more countries gradually signing trade agreements with the US [3] - The S&P 500 valuation is not considered high, and earnings are performing well, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the market [3]

Economic Data - The US Redbook retail sales increased by 7.4% year-on-year, with a four-week moving average of 6.5%, surpassing the previous value of 6.1%, indicating robust consumer spending [7][9] - March new home sales were annualized at 724,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 7.4%, marking the highest growth rate in 11 months [7][8] - March existing home sales were annualized at 4.02 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 5.9%, the lowest growth rate in 28 months [7][8] - Initial jobless claims for the third week of April were 222,000, in line with expectations, with a four-week moving average of 220,000, showing a downward trend [8][11] - The New York Fed's weekly economic index was 2.7, with a 13-week moving average of 2.5, indicating an overall upward trend [8] Market Sentiment - The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) reported 398 points, with a seven-day moving average of 418 points, significantly down from a previous high of 703 [12][13] - Retail investor sentiment showed that 55.6% were bearish on the market, while 21.9% were bullish, with a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 0.39, a decrease from the previous value of 0.45 [12][15] - The Fear and Greed Index improved from 'extreme fear' to 'fear', closing at 35 points, with notable improvements in volatility metrics [12][17] Global Market Overview - Global equity markets rose by 3.9% last week, with developed markets up 4.1% and emerging markets up 2.7%, with the US stock market leading globally [16] - Gold's upward momentum has slowed, with a weekly increase of 0.1%, while Bitcoin surged by 11.7%, making it the best-performing asset class for the week [16] Industry Performance - Among 36 secondary industries in the US stock market, 32 saw gains, with significant increases in the automotive, semiconductor, and electrical equipment sectors [19] - The software services sector had the highest estimated daily fund strength at approximately $133.5 billion, indicating strong investor interest [26] S&P 500 Valuation - As of now, 180 companies in the S&P 500 have reported Q1 2025 earnings, with overall EPS exceeding expectations by 10.0%, higher than the five-year average of 8.8% and the ten-year average of 6.9% [10] - The S&P 500 PE (TTM) stands at 24.7 times, at the 34.2 percentile, slightly above the ten-year average of 24.5 times [10] - Forward PE increased from approximately 20.0 times to 20.8 times, a rise of about 4.0%, while Forward EPS slightly decreased from $265 to $264, a decline of about 0.4% [10]

Macro Data - In March, retail sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month, the largest increase in nearly 26 months, attributed to consumers stocking up on goods before price hikes due to tariffs [8][12] - The initial jobless claims for the second week of April were 215,000, better than the expected 225,000, indicating a stable job market [8][12] - New housing starts in March decreased by 11.4% to an annualized rate of 1.324 million units, below the expected 1.42 million units, impacted by rising material prices and high inventory levels [8][12] Market Sentiment - The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) has a 7-day moving average of 579 points, slightly down from the previous week's high of 703, indicating high uncertainty regarding tariff policies [13][15] - The AAII survey shows that 56.9% of retail investors are bearish on the stock market, while only 25.4% are bullish, reflecting a continued spread of pessimism [13][16] - The Fear and Greed Index closed at 21 points, remaining in the 'extreme fear' zone for four consecutive weeks [17][18] Global Market Overview - Global equity markets rose by 0.3% last week, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets (2.1% vs. 0.1%) [19][21] - Gold prices continued to rise, increasing by 3.0% last week, while Bitcoin futures rose by 1.6% [21] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.5%, entering a sideways consolidation phase, while the Hang Seng Index also experienced a decline of 0.5% [21][23] Industry Performance - Among 36 secondary industries in the US stock market, 21 saw gains, with transportation, real estate investment trusts, and oil and petrochemicals performing well [22][23] - The strongest sectors included pharmaceuticals, transportation, and oil and petrochemicals, with pharmaceuticals seeing an estimated daily fund intensity of approximately $20.7 billion [29][30] S&P 500 Valuation - As of last week, the S&P 500's trailing PE ratio was 24.1, slightly below the ten-year average of 24.5, indicating reasonable but not undervalued conditions [32][34] - The forward PE ratio decreased from 20.2 to 20.0, a decline of about 1.0%, while forward EPS slightly fell from $266 to $265, a decrease of about 0.5% [32][36] Earnings Performance - 12% of S&P 500 companies reported Q1 2025 earnings, with 71% exceeding expectations, though this is below the 5-year average of 77% [37][39] - In terms of revenue, 61% of companies reported actual revenues exceeding expectations by 0.5%, lower than the 5-year average of 69% [39][41] Q2 2025 Earnings Expectations - The highest expected year-on-year earnings growth for Q2 2025 is in the communication services sector at 28.8%, followed by information technology at 17.1% [42][43] - The energy sector is expected to see the highest decline in earnings at -18.1% for Q2 2025 [42][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sustainability of the rebound remains to be confirmed, and it is advisable to embrace gold. The current primary contradiction is not employment and inflation but tariff policies. After a significant valuation correction, the PE has become reasonable but not undervalued. Whether corporate earnings expectations will be adjusted due to tariffs depends on the ongoing Q1 earnings reports, and whether there will be an earnings correction in the future requires further confirmation. Although the 90 - day delay in tariff implementation has provided some relief to the market, uncertainties still persist. Therefore, a defensive approach is the main strategy, and it is recommended to invest in gold, which has a hedging property [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Data - As of the week ending April 5, the number of initial jobless claims was 223,000, in line with the forecast, and the four - week moving average remained unchanged, indicating overall stability in the employment market. In March, the CPI was 2.4% year - on - year, better than the expected 2.5%; month - on - month, it was - 0.1%, better than the expected 0.1%. The core CPI was 2.8% year - on - year, better than the expected 3%; month - on - month, it was 0.1%, better than the expected 0.3%. In April, the preliminary reading of the 1 - year inflation expectation in the University of Michigan survey soared to 6.7%, a new high since 1981, higher than the expected 5.2% and the previous value of 5%; the preliminary reading of the 5 - year inflation expectation was 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.1%. The preliminary reading of the consumer confidence index was 50.8, significantly lower than the expected 53.5 and the previous value of 57 [3][8][9]. Market Sentiment - The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) reached 678.44 points, with a weekly moving average of 676.57 points, a new high since 2018, mainly due to the inconsistent tariff policies of the Trump administration, which disrupted market expectations and caused significant market fluctuations. The retail sentiment indicator compiled by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed that 58.9% of US retail investors were bearish on the stock market, while 28.5% were bullish, with a bull - to - bear ratio of 0.48, an improvement from the previous value (0.35), but pessimism still prevailed. The Fear and Greed Index remained in the 'Extreme Fear' zone for three consecutive weeks, closing at 13 points; among its seven sub - indicators, only 'Junk Bond Demand' showed 'Fear', while the other six showed 'Extreme Fear' [3][16][17]. Global Market - The global equity market rose 3.4% last week, with developed markets (4.4%) outperforming emerging markets (- 3.9%), and the US stock market led the global market. Gold continued its upward trend, rising 7.2% last week, and it has been rising across all observed time frames. Bitcoin was weak, with a weekly increase of - 0.3% [3][22]. Industry Performance - Among the 36 secondary industries in the US stock market, 31 rose and 5 fell. Industries such as national defense and military, non - ferrous metals, and semiconductors had relatively large increases. The absolute values of the top three gainers were much larger than those of the bottom three. Eleven secondary industries outperformed the S&P 500 index (5.7%) [24]. S&P 500 Component Stocks - Among the S&P 500 component stocks, 372 stocks rose last week, accounting for 74%, and the number of rising stocks increased significantly compared to the previous week. The top - ranked stocks in terms of gains were NEWMONT, BROADCOM, CONSTELLATION ENERGY, PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES, GE VERNOVA, etc. Among the 20 core component stocks, Broadcom led with a weekly increase of 24.4%, while ExxonMobil performed the worst with a weekly decrease of - 1.2% [26][28]. Volume and Price Indicators - The strong secondary industries were semiconductors, software services, medical equipment and services, etc. The estimated average daily capital intensity of the semiconductor industry last week was approximately $325.4 billion, ranking first. Last week, the estimated capital inflows were relatively concentrated in stocks such as NVIDIA, TESLA, and PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES [30][32]. Market Valuation - In the past week, the static PE of the S&P 500 was 24.3 times, the Bloomberg Forward PE rose slightly from 19 times to 19.8 times, an increase of 4.3%; the Bloomberg - predicted EPS decreased slightly from $268 to $266, a decrease of 0.5% [34]. Gold Industry - As of April 10, 2025, the price of the gold industry was in the range of 10.7x P/E to 19.3x P/E, at a relatively low level; the P/E in Q2 2025 is expected to rebound significantly, and the earnings per share (EPS) in Q2 2025 is expected to rebound significantly. In the short term, the gold price has shown obvious fluctuations due to tariff policies. In the long term, factors such as the expectation of more severe stagflation in the US after the tariff increase, global economic and political uncertainties, and the gold - buying demand of emerging market central banks may support the gold price [37][41].

Macro Data - U.S. new home sales in February were seasonally adjusted at an annualized rate of 676,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 1.8%, slightly below the expected 680,000 units, and above the previous value of 664,000 units[7] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 22 were 224,000, better than the expected 225,000 and the previous value of 225,000; the four-week moving average decreased by 2.0% to 223,500, indicating overall stability in the job market[8] - February core PCE year-on-year increased to 2.8%, above the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.6%; month-on-month, it rose by 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3%[8] Market Sentiment - The Fear and Greed Index briefly improved before entering the 'extreme fear' zone again, closing at 22 points; only two of its seven components (volatility and junk bond demand) were neutral, while the other five showed extreme fear[16] - Global equity markets fell by 1.4% for the week, with emerging markets down 0.9% and developed markets down 1.5%[16] U.S. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.5% for the week, with only 222 stocks rising, accounting for 44% of the index, a significant decrease from the previous week[23] - In terms of style, large-cap value outperformed small-cap value, while small-cap growth outperformed large-cap growth; specifically, large-cap value (Russell 1000 Value -0.5%) > small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value -1.1%) > small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth -2.1%) > large-cap growth (Russell 1000 Growth -2.6%)[18] Sector Performance - Among 36 sectors in the U.S. stock market, 11 sectors rose while 25 fell, with significant gains in sectors like business services, food and beverage, and telecommunications; 24 sectors outperformed the S&P 500 index[21] - The strongest sector was business services, with an estimated average daily capital inflow of approximately $2.37 billion, while the semiconductor sector had the weakest with an estimated average daily outflow of $103.2 billion[21] Strategy Recommendations - Despite the unexpected rise in core PCE and increasing inflation expectations, the market anticipates rate cuts in June (92% probability), September (90% probability), and December (96% probability), indicating a growing pessimism about economic prospects[21] - A defensive strategy is recommended, focusing on assets like gold (GLD) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK_B)[21]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hang Seng Index rose approximately 19.2% from January 1 to March 24, driven primarily by a valuation increase from a Forward PE of 9.7 to 11.9, contributing 23.1% to the rise[29] - The Forward EPS decreased by 3.2% during the same period, indicating that the increase in the index was mainly due to valuation recovery rather than earnings growth[30] - The current Forward PE of the Hang Seng Index is at 11.6x, which is at the lower end of the reasonable range compared to historical averages[35] Group 2: Chinese Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, consistent with last year's target and actual growth, supported by a combination of proactive fiscal and monetary policies[6] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is planned at 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from 2024, with total fiscal spending expected to reach 5.66 trillion yuan[9] - The CPI in February 2025 fell by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the first negative value since January 2024, while the PPI has been in negative territory for 29 consecutive months, indicating weak domestic and international demand[6] Group 3: U.S. Economic Outlook - The probability of a recession in the U.S. for 2025 is estimated at 25% according to Bloomberg economists and 23.18% according to New York Fed models, indicating a low likelihood of recession[44] - The S&P 500 index experienced a 10% decline from February 19 to March 13, with a Forward PE drop of 22.9% from 26.6 to 20.5, suggesting a return to a reasonable valuation range[40] - In non-recession years, the S&P 500 has an 84% probability of increasing, with a median annual increase of 13.41%[44]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - January CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9%, marking the highest level in seven months [7] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.1% and previous 3.2% [7] - January PPI year-on-year was 3.5%, matching the previous value and exceeding the expected 3.2% [7] Group 2: Market Performance - S&P 500 index rose by 1.5% last week, while the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 7.3%, marking the highest increase globally [20] - Among the 36 secondary sectors in the U.S. stock market, 27 sectors saw gains, with the top five performing sectors being Electrical Equipment, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Durable Goods, Pharmaceuticals, and Household Products [23] Group 3: Company Performance - 76% of S&P 500 companies reported actual EPS above expectations, slightly below the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 75% [5] - Notable companies with significant stock price increases include AMD, Intel, and Airbnb, contributing to the overall positive performance of the S&P 500 [26]