焦炭品种手册
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-03-28 11:43
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's coke demand and supply have both peaked, with demand influenced by the trend of pig iron production and supply affected by capacity reduction in the coking industry [7][8][12]. - The coking industry's bargaining power has increased to some extent, but the number and scale of coke traders have declined significantly, and most coking plants now have long - term direct supply cooperation with steel mills [21]. - China's coke export scale is shrinking due to the expansion of new coking capacity in Southeast Asia, and the current export accounts for only about 1% [18]. - The coke futures market has a variety of trading strategies, including hedging, inter - period arbitrage, and cross - variety arbitrage, but there are still some entities that have not fully participated in the futures market, and the basis business needs further development [41][43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot and Market Supply - Demand Basics 3.1.1 Definition and Classification of Metallurgical Coke - Coke is a solid fuel obtained by dry distillation of coking coal at about 1000°C, with about 1.33 tons of coking coal consumed to produce 1 ton of coke. It is mainly used in blast furnace ironmaking, and about 90% of global coke production is for this purpose [3]. - According to national standards, coke is classified into three grades (first - grade, second - grade, and third - grade) based on quality indicators such as ash content, sulfur content, and mechanical strength [3][5]. 3.1.2 Coke Demand - China's coke consumption mainly depends on domestic pig iron production, with about 0.4 - 0.5 tons of coke needed to produce 1 ton of pig iron. Pig iron production has shown a downward trend since 2014 and an upward trend since 2018, and coke demand follows a similar trend [7][8]. - The main consumption areas of coke are North China and its surrounding areas, followed by East China [10]. 3.1.3 Coke Supply - Since 2014, China's coke production has peaked and then declined due to capacity reduction in the coking industry and weakening demand. In 2024, the output dropped to 345 million tons [12]. - Coking plants are divided into steel - mill - owned and independent coking plants, and the proportion of private independent coking plants has been gradually decreasing. The top five coke - producing provinces in 2024 were Shanxi (19%), Inner Mongolia (10%), Hebei (9%), Shaanxi (9%), and Xinjiang (8%) [14][16]. 3.1.4 Coke Import and Export - China is a traditional net exporter of coke, but the export scale has been shrinking due to the expansion of new coking capacity in Southeast Asia. In 2024, China exported 8.34 million tons of coke and semi - coke, imported 130,000 tons, with a net export of 8.21 million tons, and the export accounted for only about 1%. The current export tariff is zero [18]. 3.1.5 Coke Trade and Logistics - The coking industry has low enterprise concentration, and the downstream steel industry and upstream coking coal industry have stronger bargaining power. However, the bargaining power of the coking industry has increased in recent years [19][21]. - Most of the output of independent coking plants in China is for domestic trade, and the trade pattern is from north to south and from west to east, with a combination of railway, road, and water transportation [20][21]. 3.2 Basics of Metallurgical Coke Futures 3.2.1 Metallurgical Coke Futures Contracts - The coke futures contract has been modified twice, mainly regarding the delivery standards. The latest modification will be for the 2604 contract [24]. - The contract has specific trading parameters, such as a trading unit of 100 tons/hand, a minimum price change of 0.5 yuan/ton, and a daily price limit of 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price [25]. 3.2.2 Metallurgical Coke Futures Trading System - Margin System: The exchange margin for coke futures contracts is 15% of the contract value, and it is managed in a hierarchical manner. The margin ratio increases as the delivery date approaches and may also be adjusted according to the contract's open interest [25]. - Price Limit System: The price limit for coke futures contracts is ±8% of the previous trading day's settlement price. When there are consecutive limit - up or limit - down situations, the exchange will adjust the price limit and margin requirements [26][27]. - Position Limit System: The exchange sets limits on the maximum number of positions that members or clients can hold. For different trading periods, there are different position limits, and individual clients are not allowed to hold positions in the delivery month [28][29]. 3.2.3 Metallurgical Coke Futures Delivery Underlying - The delivery underlying of the metallurgical coke futures contract is mainly quasi - first - grade coke, with quality better than second - grade coke and worse than first - grade coke. After the 2201 contract, dry - basis anhydrous was adopted, and after the 2406 contract, the concept of equilibrium moisture was introduced [30]. 3.3 Basics of Metallurgical Coke Futures Business 3.3.1 Calculation of Coke Basis - To calculate the coke basis, it is necessary to find the pricing underlying that meets the quality requirements and location requirements of the delivery warehouse or plant. After the 2201 contract, dry - basis pricing is used, and moisture and other factors need to be converted [38]. - The wet - ton to disk - face conversion formula is: Disk - face price = Wet - ton price/(1 - moisture content in the spot) + quality premium or discount. After the 2604 contract, an additional penalty of 110 yuan/ton is required for wet - quenched coke with equilibrium moisture > 1% [39][40]. 3.3.2 Summary of Coke Futures Strategies - Participants in the coke futures market can use various trading strategies, including hedging by coke producers, purchasers, and traders, as well as inter - period arbitrage (e.g., trading the price difference between 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 contracts) and cross - variety arbitrage (such as between coke and steel products, and the so - called disk - face coking arbitrage) [41]. 3.3.3 Summary of Coke Futures Participants - The coke futures market has a long - established history, with a wide range of participants including coking enterprises, traders, and downstream steel mills. However, some state - owned steel enterprises and remote coking enterprises have not fully participated, and the participation of clients in hedging is limited by position limits. The basis business in the coke futures market needs further development [43].