Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The upward movement of the oil and fat sector today is mainly boosted by the positive news of international biodiesel policies, but the US biodiesel policy discussion is for 2026 and later, with little substantial impact this year. Pay attention to the callback after the sentiment fades. Palm oil is recommended to be shorted on rallies in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Soybean oil is expected to be weak in April under the pressure of the concentrated listing of Brazilian soybeans [3][5]. - The main trading logic of the copper market recently is the US tariff policy. In the medium - to - long term, the copper market is expected to be oscillating strongly, and the range of 80,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton should be focused on [6]. - The change in gold price is mainly driven by the uncertainty of Trump's policy and the change in risk - aversion sentiment under geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to treat it with a strong - oscillating mindset and try to go long on dips [11]. - The silver price generally follows the gold price, but due to concerns about the US economic situation and weak domestic demand, the silver price is relatively weaker than the gold price. Opportunities to go long on the gold - silver ratio should be continuously monitored [13]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish in the short - term, and the market will mainly oscillate weakly in a range, with the main contract referring to the range of 73,000 - 77,000 yuan [14]. - Crude oil is expected to face downward pressure, but considering various factors, it is recommended to hold long positions in the near term [15][16]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in asphalt in the near term [18]. - It is recommended to wait and see for the PP05 contract [19]. - It is recommended to short the basis of the plastic 05 contract on rallies [21]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level [22]. - The soybean meal 05 contract is expected to be weak [24]. - Iron ore should be treated with an oscillating mindset in the short - term, with the 2505 contract running in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [25]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate, with limited upward and downward space [26]. - Coking coal is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and previous short positions should be gradually stopped at low prices [27][28]. - The urea futures market is expected to be high - level oscillating, and the ability of the demand side to support prices needs to be tested [29]. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - International: The Trump administration is discussing a bio - diesel policy for 2026, which may increase the demand for oils and fats. Malaysian palm oil production increased in March, while exports decreased. Indian demand will end after Ramadan, and there is only rigid demand for restocking in March [3]. - Domestic: The import profit of palm oil is inverted, and the demand is low. The inventory is at a low level. The operating rate of soybean oil mills has decreased, and the demand has decreased more significantly. The inventory of rapeseed oil is at a high level [3]. - Outlook: The upward movement of the oil and fat sector is mainly due to the positive sentiment of international policies, but the impact on this year is limited. Palm oil is recommended to be shorted on rallies in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Soybean oil is expected to be weak in April [3][5]. Copper - Market performance: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined today. The non - ferrous sector was under pressure due to the tariff trade war [6]. - Supply and demand: The smelting processing fee is weakening, and there may be a round of centralized maintenance in April. The import of scrap copper may decrease. The demand is expected to be weak, but there is still potential in the traditional peak season [6]. - Outlook: The copper market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the medium - to - long term, and the range of 80,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton should be focused on [6]. Gold - Macro and geopolitical situation: US economic data shows certain trends, and there are efforts to control the geopolitical situation. The uncertainty of Trump's policy and geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment drive the change in gold price [11]. - Outlook: It is recommended to treat it with a strong - oscillating mindset and try to go long on dips. Pay attention to the support levels of 2,850 US dollars/ounce for London gold and 650 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold [11]. Silver - Macro and domestic situation: The US manufacturing PMI has fallen into the contraction range, and domestic related product prices have decreased. The silver price follows the gold price but is relatively weaker [12][13]. - Outlook: Continuously monitor opportunities to go long on the gold - silver ratio [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply, demand, and inventory: The domestic supply of lithium carbonate is at a high level, the demand may increase in April but the short - term oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse, and the inventory is continuously accumulating [14]. - Outlook: The fundamentals are bearish in the short - term, and the market will mainly oscillate weakly in the range of 73,000 - 77,000 yuan [14]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production in April. The Trump administration may take measures against Iranian oil tankers. The US oil rig count has decreased, and the crude oil production has increased slightly [15]. - Demand: The US refinery operating rate has increased, and the overall oil inventory has decreased. The tariff policy has raised concerns about the global economy [15][16]. - Outlook: There is downward pressure on crude oil, but it is recommended to hold long positions in the near term [15][16]. Asphalt - Supply and demand: The operating rate of asphalt production has decreased, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The inventory of asphalt refineries has decreased, but the actual demand still needs to recover [17]. - Outlook: It is recommended to hold long positions in the near term [18]. PP - Supply and demand: The downstream operating rate of PP is at a low level, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. The inventory of petrochemical enterprises has decreased. The demand is expected to recover, but it is recommended to wait and see for the PP05 contract [19]. Plastic - Supply and demand: The plastic operating rate has decreased, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The inventory of petrochemical enterprises has decreased. The new orders are slow to follow up, and it is recommended to short the basis of the plastic 05 contract on rallies [20][21]. PVC - Supply and demand: The PVC operating rate is at a medium - high level, and the downstream demand is slowly recovering. The inventory is still high, and the market is expected to be low - level oscillating [22]. Soybean Meal - International and domestic: South American soybeans are about to be listed, and the demand for US soybeans is under pressure. In China, the supply of soybeans may increase in April, and the inventory of soybean meal is expected to accumulate [23]. - Outlook: The soybean meal 05 contract is expected to be weak [24]. Iron Ore - Supply and demand: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand growth is limited, and the port inventory is gradually increasing. The market is expected to be oscillating in the short - term [25]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market performance: The black - metal sector oscillated weakly. The demand for rebar is weak, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils is decreasing. The market is expected to be oscillating, with limited upward and downward space [26]. Coking Coal - Supply and demand: The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth is limited. The market is expected to be low - level oscillating in the short - term, and previous short positions should be gradually stopped at low prices [27][28]. Urea - Supply and demand: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is resilient. The inventory is decreasing. The futures market is expected to be high - level oscillating [29].
冠通每日交易策略-2025-03-28
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-03-28 12:04