Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly concerned about the final implementation mode of Trump's tariffs at the beginning of April and is also awaiting new domestic policy signals. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - The central bank will choose the right time to cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates. The bond futures market will maintain a strong oscillation range in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt a steepening strategy for multi - variety hedging [48]. Summary by Categories Energy and Petrochemicals - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. The EIA crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 3.341 million barrels last week. The market trading focus may shift to the supply - demand side. There is still accumulation pressure after the first quarter. Pay attention to the resistance at Brent $74 - 75 per barrel and SC 550 yuan per barrel [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: For high - sulfur fuel oil, continue to hold the strategy of shorting at high levels as supply fluctuations ease and加注 demand weakens. Low - sulfur fuel oil lacks upward drive but also has limited downward pressure, and its cracking spread is expected to continue to oscillate [21]. - Asphalt: The production of asphalt using diluted asphalt as raw material is still restricted. The planned asphalt production in China in April is 228.9 million tons. With the temperature rising, demand is expected to improve, and the fundamentals are marginally better [22]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Crude oil strength supports international prices. PDH margins are falling, and chemical demand may decline. The supply - side pressure is limited, but the market may turn weaker in the later stage [23]. Metals - Precious Metals: Despite better - than - expected US economic data, precious metals rose overnight. The gold price is in an upward trend but needs to be wary of corrections. Focus on the US PCE data tonight [3]. - Base Metals - Copper: Overnight copper prices fell back. High copper prices affect the de - stocking speed. Short - term adjustments are expected, and the decline range is limited [4]. - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed the decline of non - ferrous metals. The de - stocking speed is faster than in previous years. Short - term oscillation is expected, and attention should be paid to the support at 20,500 yuan [5]. - Zinc: Zinc prices opened low and moved lower. Mine production is advancing as scheduled, and supply is not tight. Consumption shows resilience but limited growth. Zinc is expected to oscillate with a resistance at 24,250 yuan per ton [7]. - Lead: The market is worried about new tariffs, leading to a decline in lead prices. The raw material supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. The fundamentals are mixed, and it is expected to oscillate with a resistance at 17,880 yuan per ton [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly. High - nickel pig iron prices are strong. Nickel is expected to have short - term support around 130,000 yuan [9]. - Tin: Overnight tin prices rose. Pay attention to the technical resistance at 285,000 - 287,000 yuan. Track LME inventory and demand - side changes [10]. - Alumina: Alumina production capacity is at a historical high. Spot prices are under pressure, and the decline may slow down, with limited rebound space [6]. Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The price rebounds close to 75,000 yuan. The market demand lacks expansion space, and the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change. It is suitable to try short - selling [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures price is oscillating at a low level. Pay attention to the implementation of the joint production - cut plan of northwest silicon enterprises [12]. - Polysilicon: The futures price shows limited upward and downward drive. Spot prices are stable, and short - term narrow - range oscillation is expected [13]. - Plastics and Fibers - Polypropylene & Plastic: The short - term bearish factors are digested, but the demand follows up slowly. The inventory is transferred to the intermediate links [27]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC production remains high, and there is high - inventory and high - supply pressure. The caustic soda industry also faces similar pressure, and the prices are in a weak pattern [28]. - PX & PTA: PX rebounds at night. PTA follows the raw material fluctuations. Mid - term trends depend on energy support and terminal demand [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: The overall supply is still high. Pay attention to the positive supply - side drivers in April [30]. - Short - fiber & Bottle - chip: The short - fiber industry's fundamentals improve, and pay attention to the opportunity of processing margin recovery. The bottle - chip price follows the raw material, and the processing margin may be under pressure [31]. Building Materials - Glass: The glass spot sales are good, and the industry continues to de - stock. Pay attention to the sales volume. If it falls below 100%, consider closing long positions [32]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash continues to de - stock. Supply rebounds this week. The futures price is expected to be under pressure at a high level [34]. Agricultural Products - Grains and Oilseeds - Soybean & Bean Meal: The market awaits the US soybean planting intention report. Domestic bean meal basis is falling. After the arrival of a large number of soybeans, the basis may continue to decline. The mid - term trend is range - bound [35]. - Corn: Corn futures prices are falling back. Supply pressure increases, and demand is weak. The price may test the bottom again [39]. - Meat and Eggs - Pork: The hog futures price oscillates slightly downwards. The long - term supply pressure increases, and the price is expected to move towards 12 - 13 yuan per kilogram. The futures market maintains a bearish view [40]. - Egg: The egg spot price is stable, and the futures price rebounds. The mid - term spot price may decline, and the futures market maintains a bearish view in the mid - term [41]. - Other Agricultural Products - Cotton: US cotton prices rise. The US cotton planting area is expected to decrease. The demand for cotton is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar: US sugar oscillates. Brazilian sugar production may be lower than expected. The domestic sugar supply and demand show some positive factors, but the upward space is limited [43]. - Apple: The apple futures price corrects. The cold - storage apple inventory is low, and the demand is entering the peak season. The price may rise [44]. - Wood: The wood futures price oscillates. The log inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weak [45]. - Paper Pulp: The paper pulp futures price falls slightly. The inventory decreases, and there are supply - reduction expectations. The demand is average, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Others - Shipping: The container shipping index (European line) lacks an upward drive and may continue to oscillate. Pay attention to the shipping companies' price - supporting actions during the May Day holiday [20]. - Stock Index: The A - share market volume rebounds slightly. The stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, affected by Trump's tariff policy and domestic policies [47]. - Bond: The bond futures close stably. The central bank will cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates. The market maintains a strong oscillation range, and a steepening strategy is recommended for hedging [48].
综合晨报-2025-03-28
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-03-28 12:10