油脂：生柴需求有望改善，油脂板块集体走强

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the Trump administration's push for an agreement on national biofuel policy benefits the demand for US soybeans and soybean oil, leading to a rebound of CBOT soybean futures from a low level. Indonesia's plan to launch the B40 policy despite falling crude oil prices, along with the strength of US soybean oil, drives a significant rebound in Malaysian palm oil futures [8]. - Domestically, a large amount of imported soybeans will arrive in the second quarter, increasing the supply pressure of soybean oil. The cost side needs to focus on the progress of US biofuel policies and US soybean planting intentions. The situation of weak supply and demand for domestic palm oil will continue, and the cost side needs to pay attention to the price linkage of exporting countries. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation in the producing areas, so it is not advisable to blindly chase up. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil continues to grow, but the rapeseed inventory has decreased significantly. The import volume of rapeseed is expected to shrink in March and April, and the threat of trade policies to long - term imports still exists, so it is expected to fluctuate strongly [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - As of March 23, 2025, in the 2024/25 season (July - June), the EU imported 5.17 million tons of soybeans from the US, a 1.9% increase from the same period last year, with the share dropping from 55.0% to 52.6%. Brazil, the second - largest supplier, exported 2.91 million tons to the EU, a 10.1% increase, and its share rose from 28.6% to 29.5%. The EU imported 1.14 million tons of soybeans from Ukraine, up from 740,000 tons last year, and the share increased from 8.0% to 11.6%. The EU has imported 9.84 million tons of soybeans so far in the 2024/25 season, a 7% year - on - year increase [2]. - As of March 19, Argentine farmers pre - sold 8.4 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, 940,000 tons more than a week ago, compared with 10.53 million tons sold in the same period last year [2]. - Indonesia will raise the reference price of crude palm oil to $961.54 per ton in April, slightly higher than $954.5 per ton in March. Based on this reference price, the palm oil export tax in April will remain unchanged at $124 per ton [2]. - Despite a palm oil production cut in January, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of January increased by 13.98% from the previous month due to exports dropping to a four - month low [3]. - The Trump administration is promoting negotiations between oil giants and biofuel manufacturers to stabilize the implementation of the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which requires billions of gallons of corn ethanol and other biofuels to be blended into the fuel supply [4]. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content provided Views and Strategies - Internationally, the Trump administration's action on biofuel policy is positive for the demand of US soybeans and soybean oil, causing a rebound in CBOT soybean futures. Indonesia's B40 policy and the strength of US soybean oil lead to a significant rebound in Malaysian palm oil futures [8]. - Domestically, the large - scale arrival of imported soybeans in the second quarter will increase the supply pressure of soybean oil, and the cost side should focus on US biofuel policies and soybean planting intentions. The weak supply - demand situation of domestic palm oil will continue, and attention should be paid to the price linkage of exporting countries. There is still inventory accumulation pressure in the producing areas, and chasing up is not advisable. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is growing, but the rapeseed inventory has decreased significantly. Rapeseed imports are expected to shrink in March and April, and trade policies still pose a threat to long - term imports, so it is expected to fluctuate strongly [8].