黄金日报：高位强势震荡-2025-03-28

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of the gold market, written on March 27, 2025, with a review period of the same day [1] - The report is titled "Gold Daily: Strong Oscillation at High Levels" [2] Group 2: Market Performance - On Wednesday, the COMEX Gold Futures 04 main contract oscillated, opening at $3025.8 per ounce, reaching a high of $3036.1, a low of $3017.8, and closing at $3026.6, up $0.4 or 0.01% for the day [3] - The Shanghai Gold Futures 2506 main contract continued to rise on Thursday, opening at 709.52 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 711.22, a low of 706.5, and closing at 710.3, up 1.25 yuan or 0.18% for the day [3] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Overnight, the overseas gold market continued to move sideways. The rise of the US dollar and US Treasury yields pressured the gold price, but concerns about new US tariffs kept the price above important integer levels. Safe - haven sentiment still supported gold [4] - Since the beginning of 2025, gold has been very strong. The safe - haven sentiment triggered by the US President's tariff hikes and gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries are the main drivers of the gold price increase [4] - On March 26, the US President signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on all imported cars, effective April 2. Imported passenger cars, light trucks, and key auto parts are included in the tariff measures [4] - In response to the "reciprocal tariffs" starting on April 2, South Korea launched "origin marking" inspections, and India is willing to cut tariffs on half of US imports worth $23 billion to avoid US "reciprocal tariffs" [5] - There is a divergence within the Fed regarding inflation. Chairman Powell believes the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary, but the President of the St. Louis Reserve Bank is cautious about the view that tariffs won't affect underlying inflation and force the Fed to react [5] - The Fed's assessment of the economic outlook has changed from a "market protector" to a "system stress regulator" [5] Group 4: Market Forecast - Goldman Sachs has raised its average gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3300 per ounce, adjusting the forecast range from $3100 - $3300 to $3250 - $3520 [6] - Goldman Sachs believes that major Asian central banks will continue to buy gold in the next 3 - 6 years. Due to increased US policy uncertainty, it has raised the central bank's monthly gold purchase demand from 50 tons to 70 tons [6] - The target gold reserve ratio of countries like China is expected to increase from the current 8% to 20 - 30% [6] - The expectation of Fed rate cuts due to an economic recession will push the gold price to $3410 per ounce by the end of 2025 [6] - The safe - haven demand of investors will push the ETF holdings to the level during the COVID - 19 pandemic, supporting the gold price to reach $3680 per ounce by the end of 2025. In extreme risk scenarios, the gold price may exceed $4200 per ounce by the end of 2025 [6] - The market is waiting for the US PCE price data to be released on Friday to gain insights into the US economic trend and the Fed's future monetary policy [6]